战略与国际研究中心-Iraqi-Armed-Forces-on-the-Edge-of-War_74页_287kb

Summary of "Iraqi Armed Forces on the Edge of War"

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the Iraqi military forces as of early 2003, focusing on their structure, manpower, equipment, and operational capabilities in the context of potential conflict with US and British forces. The report is based on estimates and data from multiple sources, including USCENTCOM, IISS, Jane's, and expert analyses, with the caveat that much of the information is speculative due to the fluid and secretive nature of Iraq's military preparations.

Main Points

Command Structure

• Saddam Hussein is the Supreme Commander of the armed forces.
• The Presidential Guard and Special Security Committee report directly to him.
• A Defense Council includes key loyalists such as the Minister of Defense, Minister of the Interior, and Armed Forces Commander.
• The Chief of the General Staff oversees the combined service staff.
• The military intelligence and security forces are located in Baghdad and report upwards through the Combined Service Staff.
• Regional commands were established in 1998 and are likely to reappear in any conflict, led by loyalists.

Manpower and Mobilization

• Iraq has a reserve pool of 650,000 and a large conscript pool.
• The population is estimated at 24 million, with 3.4 million fit for military service.
• 274,000 males enter military service annually.
• The Popular Mobilization includes the Saddam's Fedayeen and a youth corps.
• There are concerns about the effectiveness and motivation of these mobilized forces.
• Ethnic and religious divisions within Iraq (Arab, Kurdish, Shi'a, Sunni) may affect loyalty and combat performance.

Army and Security Elements

• The Iraqi Army is estimated to have 350,000 to 375,000 personnel, organized into seven corps.
• Two Republican Guards corps and five regular army corps are in mid-2002.
• The army also includes five commando brigades and two special forces brigades.
• Army Aviation has seven wings, with 100 attack and 275 utility/transport helicopters.
• Many of these aircraft are not operational or lack sustainability.

Major Combat Unit Strength

• Six Republican Guards divisions: 3 armored, 1 mechanized, 2 infantry.
• Four Special Republican Guards brigades as part of a 14-battalion structure.
• 16 regular army divisions: 11 low-grade infantry, 3 armored, 3 mechanized.
• Five commando and two special forces brigades.
• Five-wing army aviation with 2 fixed-wing and 21 helicopter squadrons.

Tank Strength

• Iraq has 2,200 to 2,600 tanks, with 1,800 to 2,000 likely to be combat capable.
• Most tanks are T-62s and T-72s, with T-72s being relatively capable.
• T-54, T-55, T-59, and T-69 tanks are considered obsolete.
• Tank modifications such as reactive armor were attempted but not widely implemented.
• Training and readiness for modern warfare are lacking, especially for night and long-range operations.

Other Armored Equipment

• Iraq has 400 aging Soviet-bloc and French armored reconnaissance vehicles.
• 1,200 BMP-1/2 armored infantry fighting vehicles, with 900 active.
• 1,800 aging armored personnel carriers with 10 major types.
• Logistical and maintenance challenges are significant due to equipment diversity and lack of standardization.

Artillery Strength

• 200-250 self-propelled artillery units, mostly in Republican Guard and elite divisions.
• 1,900 towed artillery units, primarily 122mm, 152mm, and 155mm.
• 200 multiple rocket launchers, including 122mm and 127mm systems.
• Artillery capabilities are limited in targeting moving forces and long-range operations.
• RASIT surveillance vehicles and French Cymbeline radars are present but not sufficient for modern warfare.

Other Major Land Force Weapons

• Iraq has anti-tank guided weapons such as AT-3, AT-4, Milan, and HOT.
• Obsolescent anti-tank guns and rocket launchers are also in use.
• Mortars of various calibers (81mm, 120mm, 160mm, 240mm) are used in urban warfare.
• Training and doctrine have not kept up with modern warfare requirements, particularly for mobility and night operations.

Overall Operational Capabilities

• Iraq remains the most powerful military force in the Gulf, despite the loss of 40% of its forces in the Gulf War.
• It has chemical and biological weapons.
• The military production and modernization have been hampered by sanctions and limited resources.
• Logistical and maintenance challenges are severe, especially for armored and artillery units.
• Loyalty and cohesion of forces are crucial, with Saddam likely to mix loyalist forces, security services, and popular mobilization to resist invasion.

Key Information

• Manpower: Iraq has a significant reserve and conscript pool, but the effectiveness of mobilization is questionable.
• Equipment: Iraq's forces rely heavily on obsolescent and captured equipment, with limited modernization and training.
• Training Deficiencies: Units suffer from poor training, lack of modern tactics, and insufficient readiness for rapid, coordinated operations.
• Strategic Implications: Iraq's urban warfare doctrine and mixed forces could complicate US and British operations, making it difficult to distinguish between combatants and civilians.
• Sanctions Impact: The UN sanctions have significantly limited Iraq's ability to modernize and sustain its military.
• Regional Context: Iraq is a major military power in the Gulf, but its capabilities are outdated compared to its neighbors.

Conclusion

Despite the challenges and deficiencies in its military structure, training, and equipment, Iraq remains a formidable regional power. Its ability to mobilize large numbers of forces and its use of mixed units, including civilian and security elements, could pose significant challenges in a conflict. However, its lack of modernization, logistical shortcomings, and training deficiencies suggest that it would struggle against a well-equipped and trained coalition force like the US and UK.