20130312-高盛-GS_SUSTAIN_Chain_reaction__Online_disruption_gains_traction_55页_873kb

GS SUSTAIN: Online Retail Disruption and Opportunities

Core Content

The GS SUSTAIN report highlights the accelerating shift in consumer behavior towards online retail and its profound implications across the retail value chain. It outlines how this transition is creating both opportunities and disruptions in various sectors, including supply chain management, logistics, digital advertising, payments, and data storage.

Main Viewpoints

• Accelerating Growth: Online retail adoption has grown at a 15% CAGR since 2009, compared to 10% CAGR from 2006–2009. By 2020, it is estimated that 11%–16% of global retail sales will be conducted online, which would equate to $3.3 trillion in annual sales.
• Value Chain Transformation: The shift to online retail is reshaping the supply chain, requiring shorter lead times, higher frequency, and lower volume shipping. Distribution centers are becoming more centralized and larger, while transportation is moving towards less scale haulage and more door-to-door delivery.
• Digital Advertising and Payments: These are key areas of growth, with digital advertising and online payments being particularly compelling. Companies like Facebook, Google, and Mastercard are significant beneficiaries.
• Technology Integration: Technology is pervasive across the value chain, from supply chain management software to automation and big data analytics. The report emphasizes the importance of data management and digital presence in the new retail model.
• Pure-Play Winners: Amazon and eBay are leading the way in the online retail space, with Amazon included on the GS SUSTAIN Focus List. These companies are acquiring and building capabilities across the supply chain, including logistics and automation.

Key Information

Market Opportunities by 2020

• Total Market Opportunity: Estimated at $1–$1.15 trillion across 12 end markets.
• High-Growth Markets: Third-party logistics, digital marketing, online payments, and express delivery are expected to see growth exceeding $100 billion.
• Key Beneficiaries:
  • Supply Chain & Big Data: SAP, Oracle, IBM, EMC, Teradata
  • Logistics & Distribution: Amazon, YOOX, eBay, GLP, Goodman Group, Prologis
  • Digital Advertising: Facebook, ValueClick, Millennial Media, Tencent, Youku Tudou
  • Payments: Visa, Mastercard, Gemalto, Monitise, Alibaba Group
  • Data Storage: Amazon, Verizon, Rackspace
  • Courier Services: DHL, UPS, Deutsche Post, FedEx
  • Packaging: Rock-Tenn, Smurfit Kappa, International Paper

Investment Highlights

• Buy-Rated Stocks: Amazon, eBay, SAP, Oracle, Kuka, ABB, Facebook, Tencent, Mastercard, Gemalto, IBM, EMC, Teradata, Deutsche Post, FedEx, Rock-Tenn, Smurfit Kappa.
• Conviction List: Amazon and eBay are on the Conviction List, indicating strong investment potential.
• Focus List: Amazon, eBay, Tencent, and Mastercard are highlighted for their structural positions and returns.

Trends and Drivers

• Broadband Penetration: Increased from 5% in 2000 to 70% in developed markets by 2011, with internet speeds rising by 31% since 2008.
• Smartphone Adoption: Almost half of the total mobile audience in developed markets, driving mobile shopping and price transparency.
• Consumer Behavior: Shift to online shopping is leading to increased mobile traffic, with 10% of global traffic coming from mobile devices.
• Retail Model Changes: Retailers must adapt to a more data-driven, centralized, and digital-centric model, including faster product cycles, more frequent updates, and a focus on web content and user engagement.

Conclusion

The transition to online retail is a significant and disruptive force in the consumer sector, affecting all parts of the value chain. It is creating new opportunities in technology, logistics, and digital services while posing challenges to traditional retail and real estate models. Companies that can adapt and leverage these changes are likely to benefit significantly, with Amazon and eBay leading the charge.