20231130-格林期货-尿素早报_2页_282kb

Summary of GREIN D&H Futures Urea Morning Brief (Nov 30, 2023)

• Variety View: Urea prices were steady or rose by 10-40 yuan/ton yesterday, with local drops of 10-20 yuan/ton. Mainstream prices in key areas are around 2330-2420 yuan/ton. Short-term price movements are expected to be wide, with caution on policy risks.
• Operation Recommendation: Suggest观望 or short-term trades.
• Bull Factors: Domestic urea port inventory increased to 319,000 metric tons, up 56,000 tons or 63% month-on-month; compound fertilizer capacity utilization rose to 42.81%, up 0.522 percentage points.
• Bear Factors: Urea exports in October were 561,600 tons, down from September's 119,000 tons; domestic inventory rose to 4.734 million tons, up 371,000 tons; urea production capacity utilization fell to 80.46%, down 0.32 percentage points; policy risks remain.
• Risk Factors: Potential impacts include RMB value fluctuations, coal price changes, agricultural demand developments, and international urea market volatility.