20150804-Maybank_KERPL-Fare_Cuts_to_Hurt_SMRT_More__D_G_12页_525kb

报告摘要

Land Transport Sector Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the Singapore land transport sector, focusing on the performance and valuation of two key companies: SMRT (MRT SP) and ComfortDelGro (CD SP). The analysis includes insights on fare cuts, financial performance, and investment recommendations.

Main Points

Fare Cuts and Impact on SMRT and ComfortDelGro

Fare Cuts: The Transport Minister announced a potential $1.9%$ reduction in bus and rail fares by the end of 2015, which is higher than the initial estimate of $1.0%$.
Impact on SMRT: SMRT, which has a significant rail exposure (53% of revenue), is expected to be more negatively impacted by the fare cuts compared to ComfortDelGro. The fare cuts are likely to magnify rail losses, as the current licensing regime exposes rail operators to fare revenue risks.
Impact on ComfortDelGro: ComfortDelGro, with only 5% of revenue from rail, is expected to see minimal impact from the fare cuts. However, the company is still under a SELL rating due to ongoing challenges in its taxi business and AUD weakness.

Investment Recommendations

SMRT: Downgraded from HOLD to SELL with a new target price of SGD1.10, a $19%$ decrease from the previous SGD1.57. The recommendation is based on the expectation of a $33%$ cut in FY16-18 EPS due to fare cuts and rising costs.
ComfortDelGro: Maintained at SELL with a target price of SGD2.70, a $10%$ cut from the previous SGD3.01. The target price is based on a 17x FY16 EPS, which is 0.5 SD above its 10-year average.

Financial Performance and Outlook

SMRT:
- Revenue: Expected to decrease slightly in FY16 and FY17, with a minimal impact in FY18.
- EBITDA: Projected to decline significantly in FY16, with moderate growth in FY17 and FY18.
- Net Profit: Expected to decline by $35%$ in FY16 and $44%$ in FY17, with a $46%$ decline in FY18.
- EPS: Cut by $33%$ for FY16-18, reflecting higher costs and fare cuts.
- Valuation Metrics: Core P/E is at 24.6x for FY16, with a P/BV of 2.3x and a net debt/equity ratio of 92.3%.
ComfortDelGro:
- Revenue: Expected to grow at a moderate rate, with a slight dip in FY16.
- EBITDA: Projected to grow by $14.7%$ in FY16, with a $5.8%$ growth in FY17.
- Net Profit: Expected to grow by $14.7%$ in FY16, with a $5.8%$ growth in FY17.
- EPS: Trimmed by $0.4%$ for FY16-17, with a $14.7%$ increase in FY16.
- Valuation Metrics: Core P/E is at 19.1x for FY16, with a P/BV of 2.6x and a net debt/equity ratio of 2.9%.

Key Information

SMRT (MRT SP)

Share Price: SGD1.36
Target Price: SGD1.10 (-19%)
Market Cap: SGD2.1B
Average Daily Trade Volume: USD2M
Major Shareholders:
- Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd. (Investment C): 54.2%
- RCM Asia Pacific Ltd.: 1.3%
- JPMorgan Asset Management (Singapore): 0.8%

ComfortDelGro (CD SP)

Share Price: SGD3.01
Target Price: SGD2.70 (-10%)
Market Cap: SGD6.4B
Average Daily Trade Volume: USD14M
Major Shareholders:
- BlackRock Fund Advisors: 6.0%
- Capital Research & Management Co. (Glol): 5.0%
- First Eagle Investment Management LLC: 2.8%

Summary of Key Data

SMRT (MRT SP)

Revenue: FY16E: SGD1,313.6M, FY17E: SGD1,258.0M, FY18E: SGD1,331.7M
EBITDA: FY16E: SGD338.2M, FY17E: SGD319.1M, FY18E: SGD335.6M
Core Net Profit: FY16E: SGD83.9M, FY17E: SGD81.8M, FY18E: SGD87.1M
Core EPS (cts): FY16E: 5.5, FY17E: 5.4, FY18E: 5.7
Core EPS Growth (%): FY16E: -7.6, FY17E: -2.5, FY18E: +6.5
Net DPS (cts): FY16E: 3.3, FY17E: 3.3, FY18E: 3.3
Core P/E (x): FY16E: 24.6, FY17E: 25.2, FY18E: 23.7
P/BV (x): FY16E: 2.3, FY17E: 2.2, FY18E: 2.1
Net Dividend Yield (%): FY16E: 2.4, FY17E: 2.4, FY18E: 2.4
ROAE (%): FY16E: 9.6, FY17E: 9.0, FY18E: 9.2
ROAA (%): FY16E: 3.3, FY17E: 3.1, FY18E: 3.1
EV/EBITDA (x): FY16E: 8.5, FY17E: 9.8, FY18E: 9.0
Net Debt/Equity (%): FY16E: 92.3, FY17E: 113.5, FY18E: 98.7

ComfortDelGro (CD SP)

Revenue: FY16E: SGD4,141.5M, FY17E: SGD4,291.0M
EBITDA: FY16E: SGD891.2M, FY17E: SGD866.4M
Core Net Profit: FY16E: SGD336.8M, FY17E: SGD356.4M
Core EPS (cts): FY16E: 15.7, FY17E: 16.7
Core EPS Growth (%): FY16E: 14.7, FY17E: 5.8
Net DPS (cts): FY16E: 11.0, FY17E: 11.7
Core P/E (x): FY16E: 19.1, FY17E: 18.1
P/BV (x): FY16E: 2.6, FY17E: 2.5
Net Dividend Yield (%): FY16E: 3.7, FY17E: 3.9
ROAE (%): FY16E: 14.2, FY17E: 14.2
ROAA (%): FY16E: 6.4, FY17E: 6.8
EV/EBITDA (x): FY16E: 7.2, FY17E: 7.5
Net Debt/Equity (%): FY16E: 2.9, FY17E: 2.9

Analyst

Analyst: Derrick Heng, CFA
Contact: (65) 6231 5843 | derrickheng@maybank-ke.com.sg

Summary of Key Ratios

SMRT (MRT SP)

Growth Ratios:
- Revenue Growth: FY16E: 6.3%, FY17E: -4.2%, FY18E: 5.9%
- EBITDA Growth: FY16E: 7.7%, FY17E: -5.7%, FY18E: 5.2%
- EBIT Growth: FY16E: 2.0%, FY17E: 0.9%, FY18E: 6.9%
- Pretax Growth: FY16E: -5.2%, FY17E: -2.7%, FY18E: 6.4%
- Reported Net Profit Growth: FY16E: -7.7%, FY17E: -2.5%, FY18E: 6.5%
- Core Net Profit Growth: FY16E: -7.7%, FY17E: -2.5%, FY18E: 6.5%
Profitability Ratios:
- EBITDA Margin: FY16E: 25.7%, FY17E: 25.4%, FY18E: 25.2%
- EBIT Margin: FY16E: 9.4%, FY17E: 9.9%, FY18E: 10.0%
- Pretax Profit Margin: FY16E: 8.0%, FY17E: 8.1%, FY18E: 8.2%
- Payout Ratio: FY16E: 58.9%, FY17E: 60.5%, FY18E: 56.8%
- ROAE: FY16E: 9.6%, FY17E: 9.0%, FY18E: 9.2%
- ROAA: FY16E: 3.3%, FY17E: 3.1%, FY18E: 3.1%

ComfortDelGro (CD SP)

Growth Ratios:
- Revenue Growth: FY16E: -1.1%, FY17E: 3.6%
- EBITDA Growth: FY16E: 9.6%, FY17E: -2.8%
- EBIT Growth: FY16E: 19.3%, FY17E: 3.8%
- Pretax Growth: FY16E: 19.2%, FY17E: 7.2%
- Reported Net Profit Growth: FY16E: 14.7%, FY17E: 5.8%
- Core Net Profit Growth: FY16E: 14.7%, FY17E: 5.8%
Profitability Ratios:
- EBITDA Margin: FY16E: 25.2%, FY17E: 25.4%
- EBIT Margin: FY16E: 10.0%, FY17E: 10.7%
- Pretax Profit Margin: FY16E: 8.2%, FY17E: 8.1%
- Payout Ratio: FY16E: 56.8%, FY17E: 58.9%
- ROAE: FY16E: 14.2%, FY17E: 14.2%
- ROAA: FY16E: 6.4%, FY17E: 6.8%

Conclusion

The analysis highlights the adverse impact of fare cuts on SMRT, particularly due to its heavy reliance on rail revenue, and the continued challenges faced by ComfortDelGro, including its taxi business and AUD weakness. Both companies are underperforming in the market, with SMRT showing a more significant decline in profitability and ComfortDelGro maintaining a SELL rating despite some positive growth indicators.

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