2021-12-05-瑞士信贷集团-2022年行业展望_这是在补充库存方面高速增长的近一年_65页_2mb

China Auto Sector Outlook 2022: A NEO Year of High Growth on Restocking

Core Content

The China auto sector is anticipated to experience a significant rebound in 2022, with passenger vehicle (PV) wholesale volume expected to grow by 12% YoY, surpassing the CPCA forecast of 5%. This growth is primarily driven by two factors: dealer-level restocking due to improved chip supply and order backlog that will be fulfilled in 2022.

Main Points

• Wholesale Growth in 2022

  • After a decline in 2021 due to semiconductor shortages, the sector is expected to recover.
  • The 12% YoY growth is attributed to:
    • Dealer restocking as chip supply improves.
    • Fulfillment of long-standing order backlogs, contributing to 5% annualised retail sales growth.

• Autonomous Driving (AD) Commercialisation and Monetisation

  • High-level vehicle autonomy (L3 and L4) is beginning to be commercialised and monetised.
  • Key improvements in AD include:
    • Enhanced software algorithms.
    • Increased computing power.
    • Addition of LiDAR sensors.
  • Automakers like NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, and Great Wall Motor have developed full-stack software in-house, allowing for faster technology development and additional profit streams.

• Product Portfolio Expansion

  • NIO and Great Wall Motor (GWM) are leading in product cycle and portfolio expansion.
  • NIO plans to add three new models (two sedans and one SUV) to its lineup.
  • GWM will introduce 20 new models, including eight pure electric vehicles.

• Stock Recommendations

  • The research recommends the following order of preference:
    • NIO > GWM > Minth > BYD > Xpeng > Li Auto > GAC > Dongfeng > Nexteer > Geely > BAIC > Brilliance > Fuyao
  • Minth is highlighted for its fast-growing EV battery housing business and has had its target price increased to HK$48.0 from HK$36.5.

Key Information

• Dealer Inventory Decline in 2021: Due to the chip shortage, dealer inventory fell by 1.38 million units (7% of 2021 full-year volume).
• Order Backlog: Dealers have a backlog of ~1-2 months of orders, which will be fulfilled in 2022.
• SAAR Growth in October 2021: The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for PV wholesales reached 21.9 million units, a 11% increase over the 2020/2021 annual volume of 19.8/20.9 million units.
• Chip Supply Improvements: The improvement in chip packaging, especially in Malaysia, has alleviated supply chain constraints.
• Autonomous Driving Penetration:
  • L3 penetration is expected to rise from 2.3% in 2021 to 4.9% in 2022.
  • L4 penetration is forecasted to increase from 0.2% in 2022 to 3% in 2025 and 23% in 2030.

Summary Table

Additional Highlights

• Minth is highlighted as a top 3 pick due to its growth in the EV battery housing business.
• The global auto makers and auto component makers are also listed with their respective metrics.
• The 2022 new product plans of various automakers are outlined in a table, including models from NIO, GWM, BYD, and others.

Conclusion

The Chinese auto sector is poised for a strong recovery in 2022, driven by restocking and order backlog. Companies with strong product cycles and advancements in autonomous driving technology, such as NIO and GWM, are expected to lead the growth. Minth is also highlighted as a top pick due to its growth in the EV battery sector.