2017年-世界发展银行全球_Mozambique_Economic_Update_July_2017___A_Two_Speed_Economy_42页_3mb

报告摘要

Mozambique Economic Update Summary

Core Content

The Mozambique Economic Update (MEU) provides a comprehensive assessment of the country's economic situation and outlook, highlighting both progress and challenges. The report is structured into two main parts: Recent Economic Developments and Mozambique's Private Sector - a tale of two speeds. It is based on data up to June 30, 2017, and includes key figures, tables, and boxes to support its analysis.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Growth

Improvement in Growth: After a sharp slowdown in 2016, the first quarter of 2017 saw GDP growth pick up to 2.9% year-on-year, more than double the previous quarter's growth.
Drivers of Growth: The recovery in the coal industry and the operationalization of the Nacala logistics corridor contributed significantly to the growth.
Sectoral Contributions: The extractive sector was the main driver of the growth, with output increasing by 41% in early 2017. However, the service and manufacturing sectors faced contractions.
Long-term Outlook: Growth is expected to reach 4.6% in 2017 and potentially 7% by the end of the decade, supported by recovering commodity prices, improved security, and progress in peace talks.

Exchange Rate and Inflation

Exchange Rate Appreciation: The metical appreciated by 28% against the US dollar between October 2016 and June 2017, contributing to inflation easing.
Inflation Trends: Inflation declined to 18.1% in the 12 months to June 2017, from a peak of 26.3% in November 2016. However, non-food inflation remained high due to energy and fuel price increases.
Fiscal Reforms: Subsidy reforms and administered pricing have contributed to non-food inflation pressures, with electricity and fuel prices rising significantly.

The External Sector

Current Account Deficit: Narrowed to 38% of GDP in 2016, down from 40% in 2015, due to a 36% drop in goods imports and a 17% increase in exports.
FDI Role: FDI, particularly from megaprojects, played a crucial role in financing the current account deficit, with a 4% increase in megaproject FDI in 2016.
Reserve Recovery: International reserves increased to USD 2.3 billion by May 2017, sufficient to cover 4.3 months of imports or 6.1 months excluding megaprojects.

Monetary Policy

High Interest Rates: The reference lending rate was among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa at 22.75%, with commercial bank rates at 28.6% in May 2017.
Policy Tightening: Monetary tightening helped stabilize the currency and reduce inflation, but the cycle may have peaked by early 2017.
Loosening Signals: The central bank eased the reference lending rate by 50 basis points in April 2017 and removed a credit card spending limit, suggesting a potential shift towards a more accommodative policy stance.

Fiscal Policy

Unsustainable Fiscal Position: Despite some progress, the fiscal adjustment has been limited, and the government's wage bill remains a significant fiscal burden.
Debt Restructuring: The country's debt position remains untenable without progress in restructuring negotiations.
Subsidy Reforms: Subsidy reforms have advanced, but arrears and domestic financing continue to impede fiscal adjustment.
Fiscal Risks: Large state-owned enterprises pose material fiscal risks, requiring proactive management to support recovery efforts.

Private Sector Impact

Two-Speed Economy: The private sector is divided into two segments: one driven by extractives and megaprojects showing resilience, and the rest experiencing a slowdown.
Firm Growth: The number of formal firms doubled since 2002, and employment in the private sector has grown significantly.
Challenges: The economic downturn has disproportionately affected small and medium enterprises, which face reduced demand, higher costs, and limited access to credit.
Productivity and Competition: There has been a growing share of SMEs and a decline in productivity dispersion, indicating increased competition and potential for long-term growth.

Key Figures and Tables

Figure 1: First quarter GDP growth in 2017 improved due to the extractive sector.
Figure 2: The extractive sector continues to be a key driver of the Mozambican economy.
Figure 3: FDI has a significant impact on job creation, with non-extractive FDI projects contributing to a 50-fold increase in jobs.
Figure 4: The metical began appreciating in October 2016.
Figure 5: Inflation remains high due to energy and fuel price pressures.
Figure 6: The trade balance has been narrowing.
Figure 7: Imports of non-essential consumer and capital goods fell.
Figure 8: Coal price surges improved exports.
Figure 9: Increased exports helped central bank reserves.
Figure 10: Non-megaproject FDI contraction dampened overall FDI.
Figure 11: Investment falls in key sectors.
Figure 12: Credit to the economy continues to decline.
Figure 13: Commercial bank interest rates are high.
Figure 14: Government borrowing has fallen in 2017.
Figure 15: Deposit levels have remained stable.
Figure 16: Commercial bank replenishment eased reserve drawdowns.
Figure 17: Consolidation efforts have been limited.
Figure 18: Domestic financing covers expenditures.
Figure 19: Petrol subsidies are marginal.
Figure 20: Diesel subsidies are sizable.
Figure 21: Oil price recovery may pressure domestic prices.
Figure 22: Utilities and extractive industries contribute significantly to GDP.
Figure 23: Maputo has captured a large share of firm growth.
Figure 24: Maputo also accounts for the largest share of employment created.
Figure 25: Employment growth has been diversified.
Figure 26: The share of SMEs is growing.
Figure 27: SMEs contribute to productivity growth.
Figure 28: Productivity dispersion within sectors has declined.
Figure 29: GDP forecasts based on business demand indicators.
Figure 30: Declining private sector confidence reflects slower growth.
Figure 31: Turnover indices show a sharp downturn in commerce and services.
Figure 32: Exports show divergence between extractives and the rest of the private sector.
Figure 33: Industrial production indicators confirm this trend.
Figure 34: Economic crisis transmission channels to the private sector.
Figure 35: The economic crisis has worsened the decline in tourism earnings.
Figure 36: Tourism slowdown was due to lower overnight stays and international arrivals.
Figure 37: Mozambique scores poorly in several Doing Business indicators.

Tables

Table 1: Balance of Payments (USD millions, 2015 and 2016), showing a narrowing deficit and significant import reductions.

Boxes

Box 1: Extractives FDI and job spillovers: FDI in extractives has a significant positive impact on job creation and wages in other sectors.
Box 2: Fuel subsidy reforms: Subsidy reforms have been implemented, but diesel subsidies remain significant.
Box 3: Private sector confidence: Declining confidence is reflected in reduced growth and business activity.
Box 4: Tourism: The sector has been slowing even before the economic crisis.

Conclusion

The report underscores that while the Mozambican economy shows signs of recovery, particularly in the extractive sector, the broader private sector and public finances remain under significant strain. A balanced approach combining fiscal and monetary policies is essential for sustained recovery and long-term stability. The report calls for continued reforms to enhance the resilience of the private sector and improve the sustainability of public finances.

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