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EU Beverages and Tobacco Sector Summary - June 2025

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the current earnings and growth expectations for the European Beverages and Tobacco sector as of June 2025. It highlights the trends in EPS consensus momentum, organic growth, operating profit, and the impact of FX rates on financial performance. Key players such as ABInBev, Carlsberg, Heineken, Royal Unibrew, Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Campari, Remy, and tobacco companies like BATS, IMB, Philip Morris, and Altria are analyzed.

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Key Takeaways

• Earnings Momentum: After prolonged earnings downgrades, the Beer sector, especially ABInBev, has turned positive in earnings momentum.
• Spirits Earnings: EU Spirits earnings continue to face downward pressure, primarily due to Campari downgrades.
• FX Headwinds: Most European beverage companies face FX headwinds due to a weaker USD, impacting their LSD EPS.
• Volume Expectations: Q2 2025 volume expectations have been cut for most Beverages due to late Easter phasing and an uncertain macro environment.
• Spirits Vulnerability: Spirits estimates remain vulnerable to tariff-related downgrades, as noted in a recent report.

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2025 EPS Consensus Momentum

• EU Beverages: EPS consensus momentum turned positive by +0.7% after Q1 reporting, up from -6.0% over the last 12 months.
• Key Players:
  • ABInBev: EPS momentum is positive (+0.7%), with a slight downward revision.
  • Carlsberg: EPS momentum is positive, with upward revisions.
  • Heineken: EPS momentum is positive, with upward revisions.
  • Royal Unibrew: EPS momentum is positive, with downward revisions.
• Tobacco:
  • BATS: EPS momentum is slightly negative.
  • IMB: EPS momentum is slightly negative.
  • Philip Morris: EPS momentum is slightly negative.
  • Altria: EPS momentum is slightly negative.

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FY25 Organic Growth and Operating Margins

• Brewers Outperform Distillers: Brewers are expected to outperform distillers in OSG (organic sales growth) and EBIT margin in 2025.
• Brewers:
  • ABInBev: Organic volume growth is 0.2%, with a downward revision in the last 12 months.
  • Carlsberg: Organic volume growth is 0.0%, with a slight upward revision.
  • Heineken: Organic volume growth is 1.0%, with a slight upward revision.
  • Royal Unibrew: Organic volume growth is 3.9%, with a significant upward revision.
• Distillers:
  • Diageo: Organic volume growth is -0.3%, with a downward revision.
  • Pernod Ricard: Organic volume growth is -3.0%, with a downward revision.
  • Campari: Organic volume growth is 1.7%, with a significant downward revision.
  • Remy: Organic volume growth is -18.0%, with a slight downward revision.
• Carbonated Soft Drinks:
  • CCEP: Organic volume growth is 1.7%, with a downward revision.
  • CCH: Organic volume growth is 2.2%, with a slight upward revision.
• Tobacco:
  • BATS: Organic volume growth is -5.1%, with a slight upward revision.
  • IMB: Organic volume growth is -3.7%, with a slight upward revision.
  • Philip Morris: Organic volume growth is 1.7%, with a slight downward revision.
  • Altria: Organic volume growth is -10.7%, with a significant downward revision.

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FY25 Operating Profit Growth Outlook

• Brewers:
  • ABInBev: Organic OP growth is 6.2%, with a slight downward revision.
  • Carlsberg: Organic OP growth is 3.5%, with a slight upward revision.
  • Heineken: Organic OP growth is 5.9%, with a slight upward revision.
  • Royal Unibrew: Organic OP growth is 9.7%, with a slight downward revision.
• Distillers:
  • Diageo: Organic OP growth is -0.7%, with a slight upward revision.
  • Pernod Ricard: Organic OP growth is -2.8%, with a slight upward revision.
  • Campari: Organic OP growth is 0.0%, with a significant downward revision.
  • Remy: Organic OP growth is -31.9%, with a slight downward revision.
• Carbonated Soft Drinks:
  • CCEP: Organic OP growth is 7.8%, with a slight downward revision.
  • CCH: Organic OP growth is 11.6%, with a slight upward revision.
• Tobacco:
  • BATS: Organic OP growth is 2.4%, with a slight upward revision.
  • IMB: Organic OP growth is 4.1%, with a slight upward revision.
  • Philip Morris: Organic OP growth is 12.1%, with a slight downward revision.
  • Altria: Organic OP growth is -10.7%, with a significant downward revision.

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FX Impact on EBIT

• FX Headwinds: Most beverage stocks face FX headwinds due to a weaker USD, which affects their EBIT.
• Brewers:
  • ABInBev: FX impact is -3.4% on EBIT.
  • Carlsberg: FX impact is -1.1% on EBIT.
  • Heineken: FX impact is -7.1% on EBIT.
  • Royal Unibrew: FX impact is 0.0% on EBIT.
• Distillers:
  • Diageo: FX impact is -3.1% on EBIT.
  • Pernod Ricard: FX impact is -3.7% on EBIT.
  • Campari: FX impact is -0.8% on EBIT.
  • Remy: FX impact is 2.1% on EBIT.
• Carbonated Soft Drinks:
  • CCEP: FX impact is -1.2% on EBIT.
  • CCH: FX impact is -0.6% on EBIT.
• Tobacco:
  • BATS: FX impact is -1.1% on EBIT.
  • IMB: FX impact is -2.7% on EBIT.
  • Philip Morris: FX impact is 2.3% on EBIT.
  • Altria: FX impact is -10.7% on EBIT.

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Q2 Organic Expectations and Revisions

• Late Easter and Weather Comps: Q2 growth is affected by late Easter and soft weather comps in Europe.
• Brewers:
  • ABInBev: Q2 volume growth is 0.1%, with downward revisions.
  • Carlsberg: Q2 volume growth is 0.5%, with upward revisions.
  • Heineken: Q2 volume growth is 2.6%, with upward revisions.
  • Royal Unibrew: Q2 volume growth is 6.4%, with upward revisions.
• Distillers:
  • Diageo: Q2 volume growth is -0.3%, with upward revisions.
  • Pernod Ricard: Q2 volume growth is -0.2%, with downward revisions.
  • Campari: Q2 volume growth is 2.2%, with downward revisions.
  • Remy: Q2 volume growth is 0.1%, with upward revisions.

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Summary of Sector Trends

• Brewers: Generally positive momentum, with some companies facing FX headwinds.
• Distillers: Mixed performance, with some companies experiencing significant downward revisions.
• Carbonated Soft Drinks: Moderate growth with slight variations in revisions.
• Tobacco: Overall negative momentum, with some companies showing slight upward revisions.

Overall, the European Beverages and Tobacco sector shows a mix of positive and negative momentum, with the Beer sector leading the positive trend, while Spirits and some tobacco companies continue to face challenges.