2005年-世界发展银行全球_Ukraine___Poverty_Assessment_Poverty_and_Inequality_in_a_Growing_Economy_111页_1mb

Summary of UKRAINE: POVERTY ASSESSMENT (Report No. 34631-UA)

Core Content

This report assesses poverty and inequality in Ukraine, focusing on the relationship between economic growth, employment, and poverty reduction. It highlights the dynamics of poverty across regions, sectors, and demographics, and evaluates the effectiveness of social safety nets in reducing poverty.

Main Findings

Poverty Incidence

• Poverty Line: Defined as consumption below a level sufficient to cover a 2500-calorie food basket plus nonfood goods and services.
• Poverty Rates:
  • Around 19% of the population lived in poverty by 2003.
  • Poverty incidence declined from over 30% in 2000 to less than 20% in 2003.
  • Kyiv had the lowest poverty incidence in 2003, with less than 6%.
• Rural Poverty: Poverty is increasingly a rural phenomenon, with almost half of the poor living in rural areas by 2003.
• Household Composition:
  • 40% of the poor live in large households (4 or more members).
  • 42% of the poor are children and youth (0–24 years), compared to 30% in the overall population.
  • Adults (25–64 years) account for 47% of the poor, and the elderly (65+ years) for 11%.

Inequality

• Consumption Inequality: Lower than income or expenditure inequality.
• Gini Coefficient: 0.28 in 2003 for consumption, stable despite small increases between 1999 and 2001.
• Regional Disparities:
  • Eastern regions (e.g., Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava) had lower poverty rates due to urbanization and industrial activity.
  • Western and Black Sea Coast regions had higher poverty rates due to their agricultural and rural nature.

Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction

• GDP Growth:
  • Average of about 7% per year from 1998 to 2003.
  • Industry and trade experienced the fastest growth, while agriculture had fluctuating performance.
• Sectoral Shifts:
  • Private sector employment increased significantly (doubled between 1999 and 2002).
  • Public and collective employment declined, with state-owned enterprises still being the largest source of employment in 2002.
• Unemployment Trends:
  • Unemployment decreased from over 11% in 2000 to 9.1% in 2003, with preliminary estimates suggesting further decline in 2004.
  • Youth unemployment remains high, with rates twice that of the rest of the adult population.

Employment and Poverty Dynamics

• Labor Market Participation:
  • Higher in large cities (78% in Kyiv) compared to rural areas (64%).
  • Declines in participation in rural areas and small towns have widened the gap.
• Job Flows:
  • Job creation and destruction rates have increased, indicating a more dynamic labor market.
  • Job persistence has improved, with a higher proportion of newly created jobs remaining filled over time.
  • Net employment growth turned positive in 2001, reflecting increased job creation and reduced job destruction.
• Underemployment:
  • Increased from 8.4% to 9.2% of the population between 1999 and 2003.
  • Concentrated in rural areas, especially in agriculture and retail trade.

Rural Poverty and Land Reform

• Land Reform:
  • Converted many farms into private organizations, increasing productivity and efficiency.
  • Reduced excess labor by nearly a million workers between 2000 and 2003.
• Rural Challenges:
  • Rural areas face irregular weather and restructuring of agricultural organizations, leading to slower poverty reduction.
  • Large and young families in rural areas have the highest poverty rates.
  • Pension benefits do not fully offset the poverty risk for elderly individuals in rural areas.

Social Safety Nets

• Government Transfers:
  • Social insurance transfers have been a critical factor in poverty reduction.
  • Pensions have increased faster than other income sources, representing over 25% of average household income, especially for families in small towns.
• Targeted Assistance:
  • Other transfers have become better targeted but still have limited coverage.
  • The government has an opportunity to reform the safety net system for more effective targeting.

Key Information

Methodological Notes

• The report uses a revised consumption aggregate and an absolute poverty line developed in collaboration with Ukrainian experts.
• It applies improved methodologies for measuring inequality and poverty.

Regional and Sectoral Analysis

• Economic Regions:
  • Eastern regions (industrial and urban) show lower poverty rates.
  • Western and Black Sea Coast regions (agricultural and rural) show higher poverty rates.
• Agricultural Sector:
  • Productivity and efficiency have improved due to land reform and modernization.
  • However, rural wages and agricultural output have lagged behind other sectors.
  • Weather shocks and imperfect markets have increased vulnerability for poor households.

Demographic and Educational Factors

• Education:
  • Poverty is closely linked to the education level of the household head.
  • 30% of the poor live in households with heads having basic secondary education or less.
  • The poor in better-educated households experienced faster poverty reduction.
• Age Groups:
  • Youth (15–24 years) have the lowest labor force participation rates but the highest unemployment rates.
  • The elderly (65+ years) represent a larger proportion of the population in rural areas but a smaller proportion of the poor.

Conclusion

Ukraine has seen a significant decline in poverty over the last few years, driven by economic growth and increased social transfers. However, the reduction has been uneven, with rural and small town areas lagging behind. Inequality remains stable, but the dynamics of poverty and employment reveal growing disparities within and across regions. The role of the private sector in employment and productivity has increased, while the public sector remains a major employer. Social safety nets have played a vital role in poverty reduction, but their effectiveness and coverage need improvement. The report underscores the importance of targeted policies to address the remaining challenges in reducing poverty and improving living conditions, especially in rural areas.