20160601-KPCB风投-INTERNET_TRENDS_2016_–CODE_CONFERENCE_213页_7mb

Summary of Internet Trends 2016 - Code Conference

Core Content

This document outlines the major trends and developments in the internet and technology sectors as of 2016. It discusses global internet growth, macroeconomic shifts, the evolution of advertising and commerce, the role of data in business models, and the changing nature of communication and human-computer interfaces.

Global Internet Trends

• Internet Users: Reached 3 billion by 2015, with a growth rate of +9% year-over-year. Excluding India, the growth rate was +7%.
• India: Emerged as the second-largest internet user market after China, with internet user growth accelerating to +40% compared to +33% previously.
• Smartphone Growth: Global smartphone user growth slowed to +21% from +31% year-over-year. Unit shipments also slowed, from +28% to +10%.
• Asia-Pacific: The largest market for smartphone growth, with a +23% increase versus +35% previously.
• Android vs. iOS: Android continues to gain market share, while iOS ASP (Average Selling Price) has declined. The price gap between iOS and Android remains significant (~3x).
• Internet Penetration: In developed markets, internet penetration is high, making it harder to acquire new users. The document categorizes countries into 5 groups based on barriers to internet adoption.

Global Macro Trends

• Economic Growth: Global real GDP growth has slowed from +4% in 1985 to +3% in 2015. China and Emerging Asia now account for 18% of total global GDP, up from previous decades.
• Commodity Prices: Reflect the slowing global growth, with a significant drop in prices over the years.
• Debt Levels: Global debt loads have increased over the past two decades, growing faster than GDP.
• Demographics: Population growth is slowing, and birthrates are declining, while life expectancy has increased by 36% since 1960.

Advertising / Commerce + Brand Trends

• Online Advertising: Mobile and digital platforms continue to drive growth. However, many video ads are ineffective, with high rates of muting and ad blocking.
• Effective Video Ads: Should be authentic, entertaining, emotional, and offer viewer control.
• E-Commerce Growth: In the US, e-commerce now accounts for 10% of retail sales, up from less than 2% in 2000.
• Retail Evolution: Retailers are increasingly integrating technology, media, and distribution, with omni-channel strategies becoming essential.
• Direct-to-Consumer Models: Brands like Stitch Fix use data-driven approaches to offer personalized, curated product selections, significantly boosting customer satisfaction.
• Millennial Impact: Millennials are reshaping retail with their preference for online shopping and data-driven personalization, leading to rapid growth for new brands.

Re-Imagining Communication

• Video & Image: Usage of video and image-based communication continues to rise, especially among younger demographics.
• Messaging: Messaging platforms are evolving, with a focus on personalization and engagement.
• Video Viewing Evolution: From live (traditional TV) to on-demand (DVR/streaming), semi-live (Snapchat), and real-live (Facebook Live/Periscope), the way people consume video content is rapidly changing.

Re-Imagining Human-Computer Interfaces

• Voice & Transportation: Voice-based interfaces and integration with transportation systems are emerging as new ways to interact with technology.
• Smart Devices: The proliferation of connected devices is enabling new forms of interaction and engagement, particularly in the context of social platforms and home automation.

China as an Internet Leader

• China's Growth: China is a leading market in internet users and technology adoption, with significant contributions to global growth.
• Gross Capital Formation: China's capital formation has grown rapidly, surpassing previous decades.
• Shanghai as Example: Illustrates the scale of growth in China and Emerging Asia over the past two decades.

Public / Private Company Data

• Private Companies: Are increasingly influencing the internet landscape, with many achieving rapid growth and market success.
• Data as a Platform: The use of data is central to business models, enabling personalized experiences and efficient operations.
• Data Privacy: As data becomes more integral to business, privacy concerns are growing, necessitating new strategies and regulations.

Key Insights and Trends

• Slower Growth: The era of easy growth is over; businesses must innovate, increase efficiency, and leverage data to remain competitive.
• Advertising Challenges: Traditional video ads are often ineffective, with high rates of ad blocking and user dissatisfaction.
• E-Commerce and DTC: Direct-to-consumer models are on the rise, driven by hyper-targeted marketing, personalization, and mobile accessibility.
• Millennial Influence: This generation is shaping the future of retail and advertising, with a preference for digital and personalized experiences.
• China's Role: China is a key player in global internet growth, with significant market potential and influence on global trends.

Conclusion

The internet is evolving rapidly, with shifts in user behavior, technological integration, and economic factors. As growth slows, the focus is on innovation, efficiency, and leveraging data to create personalized, engaging experiences for consumers. The rise of mobile and social platforms continues to reshape the advertising and retail landscape, with new models and strategies emerging to meet the demands of a changing digital world.