20170120-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_13页_1mb_1mb

报告摘要

Core View: Maintained a BUY rating with a lower target price (TP) of HK$12.1.
Capex Recovery: Management guided 2017E capex at RMB60-70bn, a 19-39% YoY increase after a 53% plunge in 2014-16E.
Production Decline: 2017E production is expected to decline 3-5% YoY to 450-460mboe, mainly due to a limited number of new projects coming online in 2016E.
Earnings Recovery: Despite lower production, CNOOC is expected to report RMB21,869mn in 2017E earnings, a significant improvement from RMB458mn in 2016E, driven by oil price recovery.
Valuation: Trading at 2017E P/B of 1.1x, 21% below historical average, which is viewed as attractive.

Core View: Maintained a BUY rating with a TP of HK$3.17.
4Q16 Performance: SSSG for the core brand 361 Degrees reached 7.5%, showing a continued uptrend compared to previous quarters.
Kidswear Growth: SSSG for kidswear also showed a continuing growth rate of 7.7%.
Channel Health: Inventory and average retail discount levels are healthy at 4.1x and 25% off, respectively.
Sector Significance: As the first to report trade fair figures and operational updates, it signals positive momentum for the domestic sportswear sector.

Core View: Maintained a NEUTRAL rating with a TP of HK$40.6.
Earnings Uncertainty: 2017E HK earnings may fall due to capital outflow restrictions in the mainland and intensive competition in Thailand and Singapore.
Valuation: Trading at 1.63x 2017E P/EV or 9.7x NBV, reflecting a 10% CAGR for future NBV growth.
Growth Outlook: 2016E NBV growth was 23%, and the revised estimates for 2017E and 2018E are 6.4% and 15.2%, respectively.
Recommendation: Investors are advised to stay cautious and wait for better opportunities.

Core View: Maintained a SELL rating with a TP of HK$6.20.
Profit Warning: Announced a net loss of RMB11.7bn in 2016E, with enlarged 4Q16E loss of RMB2.6bn.
Reasons for Loss: Mainly due to plunge in upstream capex, provision for fixed assets, and goodwill impairment.
2017E Outlook: Expected 15-35% growth in exploration capex, but this is less than the 19-39% growth in production capex for CNOOC, making COSL more sensitive to exploration capex.
Valuation: Overvalued with overseas exposure, leading to a negative outlook.

Oil Prices: Brent Oil at HK$54.19, down 0.11%.
Stock Indices:
- Hang Seng Index: 23050, down 0.21%.
- HSCEI: 9792, down 0.11%.
- CSI 300: 3329, down 0.3%.
Currency Rates:
- USD/RMB: 6.87, up 0.47%.
- USD/HKD: 7.76, up 0.01%.
- EUR/USD: 1.07, up 0.26%.
Interest Rates:
- 3M Libor: 1.0, down 2.7%.
- 3M Shibor: 3.8, up 1.44%.
- 10Y US T-Note Yield: 2.42, up 3.86%.

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Jan. 19)	12-month TP	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	2016 EPS	2017E EPS	2018E EPS	2016 P/E	2017E P/E	2018E P/E
CNOOC	883 HK	BUY	HK$10.00	HK$12.1	21%	57,595	0.45	0.01	0.49	17.8	807.4	18.4
361 Degrees	1361 HK	BUY	HK$3.06	HK$3.17	3.6%	816	0.25	0.24	0.30	9.8	10.3	10.2
AIA	1299 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$47.55	HK$40.6	-15%	73,877	0.22	0.31	0.33	27.9	19.8	19.7
COSL	2883 HK	SELL	HK$7.75	HK$6.20	-20%	4,771	0.23	-2.11	-0.07	27.0	N.A.	N.A.

Economic Data:
- US: EIA Weekly Crude Stocks on 2017/01/20.
- China: Urban investment (ytd), Industrial Output, Retail Sales, GDP.
- Germany: Producer Prices.
Company Events:
- 2017/01/20: Pico Far East Holdings Ltd. (ANN RES/FIN DIV), Sands China Ltd. (INT DIV).

CNOOC is expected to see a capex rebound and earnings recovery in 2017E due to oil price rebound.
361 Degrees reported positive growth in its 4Q16 operations, indicating a healthy performance in the sportswear sector.
AIA faces uncertainties in 2017E due to capital outflow restrictions and market competition, with a NEUTRAL rating.
COSL posted a significant loss in 2016E and is more sensitive to exploration capex, leading to a SELL rating.
The overall market sentiment is mixed, with some companies showing recovery while others face challenges.
Valuation metrics and growth estimates are provided for various sectors and companies, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks.

展开完整摘要