2025-06-14-Jefferies-维罗纳（VRNA）_专家证实Ohtubayre的广泛应用场景-峰值销售额可能超过30亿美元_17页_1mb

Equity Research Summary: Verona Pharma (VRNA)

• Rating: Buy with target price $115 (up 25%).
• Key Drug: Ohtuvayre (ensifentrine), a novel PDE3/4 inhibitor for COPD, launched in 2024.
  • Shows strong real-world adoption, with 55+ patients by early 2025, expected to double by year-end.
  • Offers dyspnea benefits and efficacy across various therapy backgrounds, with potential to expand market share to 11%.
• Market Opportunity: Addresses the $8.5M+ patient US COPD market, expanding existing therapies rather than displacing them. Ohtuvayre could reach $3B+ in peak sales if successful.
• Financial Projections: Revenue expected to grow significantly through 2025, from current levels to higher estimates, driven by drug uptake. Downside scenario considers lower peak sales.
• Future Outlook: Potential in non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis (NCFBE) and other indications; inhaler delivery could drive further sales growth. Risks include single-product dependency, competition, and reimbursement challenges.
• Staff Recommendations: Up to potential upward contribution of $60m in 2025 sales.