2023-03-08-兰德-量化行为和社会科学研究结果的潜在成本规避影响（英）-2023_131页_757kb

Summary of "Quantifying Potential Cost Avoidance Implications of Out-comes Reported in Behavioral and Social Science Research"

Introduction

This report synthesizes research to translate outcomes from behavioral and social science studies into quantifiable cost avoidance estimates, aiding senior leaders in comparing interventions across different domains. The focus is on military outcomes such as attrition, reenlistment, job qualification, health, and others to inform funding decisions in a constrained fiscal environment.

Methodology

The analysis involves selecting relevant studies, applying utility functions to translate outcome changes into cost estimates, and using recent Army data. Methods include regression coefficients, odds ratios, hazard ratios, and cost metrics derived from sources like the RAND Army Training Resource Model (ATRM) and Department of Defense data. Key steps involve:

• Study selection: Focus on outcomes relevant to the Army, such as training attrition, reenlistment, injuries, and health costs.
• Utility functions: Convert incremental effects (e.g., in attrition rates) into dollar values using standard deviations, Z-scores, and costs per graduate or accession.
• Cost estimation: Based on data from Army databases (e.g., ATRRS, TAPDB) for variables like recruiting and training costs.

Key Findings

Studies demonstrate significant cost savings from various interventions, often related to personnel selection and training enhancements:

• Attrition Reduction: Screening tools like the Automated Aircrew Personality Profiler (A2PP) or physical fitness programs (e.g., Victory Fitness) saved millions in annual costs by reducing initial training dropouts. For instance, potential annual savings reached $40 million from personality-based selection in aviation training.
• Reenlistment and Retention: Interventions like Selective Reenlistment Bonuses (SRB) and improved job-person matches increased retention rates, with estimates showing SRB reductions saving up to $350 million per year. Programs such as tuition assistance and leadership skills assessments improved retention at lower relative costs.
• Health Outcomes: Initiatives reduced injury and health incidents, with ARMS preenlistment fitness screening avoiding $1.2 million in injury costs. Telemedicine programs in deployed settings saved costs by reducing evacuations, estimated at $3.9 million yearly.
• Training Efficiency: Computer-based training (CBT) reduced course lengths and costs, with Army studies indicating potential savings of $5 million by cutting course hours, though up to 40% in adjustments were deemed necessary for net cost benefits.
• Legal and Medical Issues: Some factors, like alcohol misuse screenings or injury reduction programs, showed success but lacked associated cost data; further research is recommended for quantification.

Implications

The research provides a framework for policymakers to use cost avoidance estimates in resource allocation decisions. It underscores the value of social science in practical applications and suggests future directions, such as improving reporting standards for replication and further analysis of complex outcomes like suicide prevention to assess their financial impact.

Caveats

• Screening Limitations: Not all studies provide detailed data, so some analyses rely on approximation methods, which are less reliable.
• Cost Assumptions: The report does not account for all costs, such as changes in recruiting costs when altering selection criteria, which may affect sustainability.
• No Comprehensive Coverage: Benefits were identified in significant cases, but small or insignificant findings are underrepresented, limiting the full scope of potential savings.