2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Bhutan_3页_435kb

Bhutan—World Bank Assessment Summary (September 11, 2012)

Core Content

This assessment letter from the World Bank provides an overview of Bhutan's economic performance and policy settings during the period 2007/08 to 2012/13. It highlights the country's robust economic growth, current account deficit, fiscal challenges, and monetary policy adjustments.

Economic Growth and Performance

• Growth Trends: Bhutan's economy has grown at a strong pace, driven primarily by developments in the hydropower sector. GDP growth was nearly 8% in 2011/12, and is projected to reach 12.5% in 2012/13 due to increased hydropower-related construction.
• Inflation: Inflation has been rising, reaching 13.5% in 2012Q2, with both food and non-food components contributing to the acceleration.
• Medium-Term Outlook: The medium-term economic outlook remains favorable, with growth expected to stabilize at around 8–9% due to continued developments in hydropower, manufacturing, and domestic services.

Current Account and Balance of Payments

• Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit has widened significantly, reaching an estimated 23% of GDP in 2011/12. This is partly due to strong imports linked to the hydropower sector.
• Overall Balance of Payments Deficit: The overall balance of payments deficit was 5% of GDP in 2011/12, attributed to sizable grants and loan disbursements.
• Rupee Shortage: The demand for Indian rupees has increased due to strong domestic demand, contributing to a rupee shortage. However, convertible currency reserves are considered broadly adequate, at US$723 million in July 2012.

Banking Sector Challenges

• Credit Growth: Credit growth has remained high at 26.2% year-on-year in June 2012, though it has moderated since March. Tight liquidity and policy measures have helped to slow the growth.
• Loan Concentration: Loan concentration, especially in real estate/construction and personal loans, is a significant concern.
• Interest Rates: Interest rates, although low, have started to increase. Financial stability indicators are generally adequate, but there are concerns about the potential deterioration in asset quality due to the rise in nonperforming loans (net) from 3.1% to 5.9% of total loans.

Fiscal Policy and Public Debt

• Fiscal Prudence: Fiscal policy has generally been prudent, but the widening of the fiscal deficit in 2011/12 has contributed to overheating. The budget deficit reached 4.3% of GDP.
• Fiscal Deficit Target: A strong commitment to the 2012/13 budget deficit target of 1.6% of GDP is welcomed, with current expenditure declining as a share of GDP and tax revenue expected to improve slightly.
• Public Debt: Public sector debt has increased significantly since 2009/10, primarily due to investments in the hydropower sector. It is projected to exceed 93% of GDP in 2014/15, placing Bhutan at high risk of debt distress.
• Debt Composition: The risk of debt distress is mitigated by the fact that nearly two-thirds of external debt is concentrated in commercially viable hydropower projects.

Monetary Policy and Sector Indicators

• Monetary Conditions: Monetary conditions need to be recalibrated to ensure that credit growth remains in check and liquidity conditions are appropriate.
• Policy Measures: The Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan has introduced the policy rate and base rate, as well as a liquidity adjustment facility, to manage liquidity and credit growth.
• Broad Money and Credit: Broad money growth was 24.6% in 2010/11, while credit to the private sector grew by 29.3% in the same period. These figures have since moderated.
• Interest Rates: Interest rates on deposits (less than 1 year) remained stable at 4.8%, while lending rates ranged between 10–16%.

External Sector and Exchange Rate

• Current Account Balance: The current account balance has been negative, with a deficit of -23% of GDP in 2011/12.
• Trade Balance: The trade balance has also been negative, reflecting a growing deficit in imports.
• Exchange Rate: The ngltrum per U.S. dollar has fluctuated, with an average of 40.4 in 2007/08 and 47.8 in 2008/09.

Key Indicators and Projections

Main Policy Recommendations

• Monetary Policy: Continue to recalibrate monetary conditions to manage credit growth and ensure appropriate liquidity.
• Financial Supervision: Strengthen financial sector supervision and use prudential tools proactively to address systemic vulnerabilities.
• Fiscal Policy: Maintain fiscal restraint and ensure that the 2012/13 budget deficit target is met to reduce balance of payments pressures.
• Debt Management: Monitor public debt closely, particularly the risk of shortfalls in aid-based financing, and ensure that debt remains sustainable.

Conclusion

The assessment underscores Bhutan's strong economic growth, driven by the hydropower sector, but highlights the need for careful management of the current account deficit, fiscal policy, and the banking sector to ensure long-term economic stability and financial sustainability.