2025-05-20-Jefferies-2025年5月JEF月度消费者和中小企业监测报告_13页_899kb

Summary of JEF Monthly Consumer and SMB Monitor - May 2025

Key Findings

• Consumer Indicators:

  • Brick and mortar retail sales showed a modest 1% year-over-year increase but a 1% month-over-month decline; nonstore retailers (including eCommerce) saw a 4% year-over-year increase but remained flat month-over-month.
  • Consumer sentiment declined significantly to 50.8, with a 27% year-over-year drop and a 3% month-over-month fall in the expectations subindex.
  • The personal savings rate decreased to 3.9%, reversing prior gains.

• SMB Indicators:

  • New business applications declined month-over-month after a strong rebound, ending a two-month upward trend.
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 95.8, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the second time below the historical 51-year average.
  • SMB loan activity sharply decreased in April, with a 29% month-over-month drop in loan approvals and a 37% decline in loan dollars.
  • SMBs showed increased AI adoption, with 36% reporting AI spending in April, up from 32% in March.

Overall Trends

The report indicates a cooling in consumer sentiment and SMB activity compared to recent months, with stable but not strongly positive trends in some areas like retail and AI adoption. SMB borrowing compressed, and optimism remains subdued.