2022-01-17-牛津经济研究院-Egypt_When_hot_money_is_not_so_hot_5页_362kb

Egypt's external position is increasingly dependent on portfolio inflows, making it vulnerable to sudden shifts in emerging market sentiment, which could trigger capital outflows and deplete foreign reserves. Currently, portfolio inflows are strong due to a resilient economy and high real interest rates, but factors like rising global inflation, Fed hawkishness, and potential global tightening could moderate asset demand. A 30% drop in foreign reserves is possible, returning to 2015 levels, leading to currency devaluation, increased imported inflation, and higher debt burdens. This might force the Central Bank to abandon intervention, potentially helping long-term stability but short-term costs could outweigh gains from reforms. Additionally, debt repayments are mounting, and external financing may be harder to secure, with reliance on GCC countries or IMF assistance.