巴黎银行-全球-信贷策略-2019年6月巴黎银行月度信贷会议：本年度最大的风险事件-20190621-28页_1mb
报告摘要
BNPP Monthly Credit Call – June 2019 Summary
Core Content Overview
This document outlines the Credit Strategy and Market Outlook for June 2019, with a particular focus on the impact of trade tensions on credit markets and corporate sectors. It is authored by BNP Paribas analysts Viktor Hjort, Dominique Toublan, and Luigi Speranza, and provides insights into trade scenarios, economic implications, and credit market responses.
Main Views and Key Insights
1. Trade Tensions as the Biggest Risk Event
- Trade conflict is identified as the primary risk to the global economy in 2019.
- US manufacturing has seen a significant slowdown, while services remain resilient, reflecting the contrast between declining export demand and strong domestic conditions.
- Decoupling is evident, with global exports weakening and tariff escalation creating a drag on economic growth.
2. Impact on Growth and Inflation
- A $10% increase in tariffs on US imports from China could lead to a 0.3pp increase in consumer price inflation.
- China's trade balance with major partners shows the significant exposure of the country to US imports.
- US imports from China are expected to decline in 2019, with the base case of no escalation showing a modest GDP impact, but the escalation scenario indicates a more severe contraction.
3. Credit Market Outlook
- The credit market is in a carry trade environment, with balanced flows from insurance, pension funds, and Asian investors.
- Deleveraging is the base case for 2019, as BBB-rated companies focus on preserving ratings, but growth support is still needed.
- Central banks are moderately dovish, but the margin of error is thin, making the market sensitive to trade developments.
4. Trade Scenarios and Credit Implications
| Scenario | Likelihood | Credit View |
|---|---|---|
| Breakthrough | 30% | Buy Cyclicals, growth companies, HY, and BBB. Risk: increasing leverage and issuance. |
| Unstable Truce | 50% | Buy safer issuers, focus on carry. Distressed sector underperforms. |
| Escalation | 20% | Sell Credit. Central Banks’ actions are too little, too late. Recession fears. |
Key Sectors and Companies
US Sectors and Companies
- Consumer Products: Whirlpool is sensitive to input prices and product tariffs.
- Metals: Freeport McMoRan, Alcoa are sensitive to copper and steel tariffs.
- Automotive: Ford, General Motors have high exposure to China.
- Chemicals: Dow Inc, Huntsman, Eastman Chems, and others are impacted by input costs and trade tensions.
- Transportation and Shipping: FedEx, UPS, Union Pacific, Caterpillar, Deere are affected by reduced global trade volumes.
- Aviation: Boeing is vulnerable due to potential shifts from China to Airbus.
EU Sectors and Companies
- Automotive: Volkswagen, BMW, Chrysler, Jaguar Land Rover are impacted by direct tariffs and input costs.
- Consumer Goods: Pernod Ricard, Diageo, LVMH, Kering are sensitive to US demand and trade restrictions.
- Industrials: CNH Industrial is affected by the agriculture sector's recovery.
- Shipping: Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM face lower shipping volumes due to trade tensions.
Asia Sectors and Companies
- Industrials: Nippon Steel, Jfe Holdings are directly affected by tariffs and indirectly by the auto sector.
- Shipping: Nippon Yusen, Mitsui Osk, Kawakisen face reduced trade volumes due to US tariffs.
- Tech: Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD may be targeted for US retaliation (e.g., intellectual property sanctions).
Investment Implications
- Credit flows are moderating, but not fading, with pension funds and life insurers showing positive outlook.
- Asian investors are positive for EUR-denominated credit, due to better yield after hedging.
- US IG Credit and EU IG Cash are expected to be affected differently based on trade outcomes.
- The credit spread is influenced by growth expectations and central bank policy.
Conclusion
The credit market is highly sensitive to trade developments, with a balanced outlook that relies on stable growth and central bank support. The base case of a no-deal/no-escalation scenario supports a carry trade, while escalation risks a recession and wider spreads. Trade tensions are expected to have a more severe impact on the US than the Eurozone, with China being the most vulnerable to tariff-driven inflation and growth slowdown.
The market is at risk if trade talks break down, with distressed sectors likely to underperform and cyclicals to benefit from a reflationary environment. Credit strategies must be closely aligned with trade scenarios and economic conditions.
Disclaimer
This document is a marketing communication and is not a research report. It is intended for Relevant Persons and may not be suitable for all investors. BNPP may have proprietary positions and engage in transactions that could be inconsistent with the views expressed. Investment decisions should be made with careful consideration of individual investment objectives and risk tolerance.
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