2012-04-18-奥纬咨询-MRO_Industry_Landscape_2012_16页_1mb

2012 MRO Industry Landscape Summary

Core Content

The Oliver Wyman 2012 MRO Survey provides an in-depth analysis of the aviation MRO market, highlighting key trends, challenges, and opportunities for airlines, MROs, and OEMs. The survey involved over 100 responses from industry executives, representing a wide range of geographies, company sizes, and roles, with most respondents holding Director-level positions or above.

Main Points

Market Dynamics and Industry Rebound

• The MRO industry is rebounding in 2012, with maintenance costs increasing and the aftermarket responding to this demand.
• OEMs are gaining more strength and influence in the aftermarket, which reduces the leverage airlines have in negotiating maintenance agreements.

Maintenance Costs and LCCs

• Maintenance costs per available seat mile (CASM) are rising at the fastest rate in recent history.
• In 2011, US LCCs had a CASM of $1.02, and mainline carriers had $1.29, compared to $0.82 and $0.99 in 2004.
• LCCs are losing their cost advantage as their fleets age faster than mainline carriers. Since 2006, LCC fleet age has increased at nearly four times the rate of mainline carriers.
• Mainline carriers have improved their cost efficiency through scale, outsourcing, and better contracts.

OEMs' Increasing Control

• Engine and component OEMs are expanding their control over the aftermarket through actions like limiting access to technical publications, initiating license agreements, and restricting service authorizations.
• Airframe OEMs are expected to play a larger role in the aftermarket over the next three years, with over 70% of respondents anticipating a significant expansion of their involvement.
• However, there is no consensus on where OEMs will focus their efforts, with some predicting in-house repair capabilities and others expecting integrated fleet and materials management services.

Carrier Leverage and Strategic Sourcing

• Airlines have limited leverage in the aftermarket due to OEM dominance, and many are not actively engaging their maintenance organizations in aircraft purchase decisions.
• Only 50% of carriers include their maintenance teams on the senior selection team, and 33% on the working team.
• 41% of respondents reported using long-term maintenance sourcing strategies at the time of aircraft purchase, with the exception of engine maintenance contracts.

Performance Evaluation and Perception Gaps

• Carriers generally rate their top maintenance providers lower than in previous years.
• There is a significant performance perception gap between airlines and MRO/OEM providers in areas like support services, quality, and customer service.
• MROs and OEMs tend to focus on cost and efficiency, while airlines prioritize responsiveness and communication.

Key Insights

• LCCs face a growing challenge in maintaining their cost advantage as fleets age and maintenance costs rise.
• OEMs are becoming more dominant in the aftermarket, with a stronger focus on control and integration.
• Airlines are not fully utilizing their leverage in the maintenance sourcing process, especially during aircraft purchases.
• Strategic sourcing and long-term cost planning are essential for airlines to manage lifecycle costs effectively.
• There is a disconnect in service priorities between airlines and MRO/OEM providers, leading to performance gaps.

Conclusion

The MRO industry is undergoing significant changes, with OEMs gaining more influence and airlines struggling to assert control. As aircraft fleets grow over the next 20 years, airlines must adopt a more strategic and forward-looking approach to aircraft acquisitions and maintenance planning. The rivalry between MROs and OEMs presents an opportunity for airlines to leverage these dynamics in their favor, provided they are more proactive and informed in their sourcing decisions.

Exhibits Summary

• Exhibit 1: Survey respondent demographics show a global representation with a majority of companies having revenue over $500 MM.
• Exhibit 2: US carrier maintenance CASM has increased significantly, with LCCs experiencing a seven-fold rise in growth rate since 2007.
• Exhibit 3: OEMs are using tactics like restricting technical publications and service authorizations to strengthen their market position.
• Exhibit 4: Actual and projected use of PMA parts is lower than expected, indicating a gap between stated intentions and real-world application.
• Exhibit 5: Airframe OEMs are expected to expand their role in the aftermarket, but the focus and success areas remain unclear.
• Exhibit 6: Boeing predicts 33,500 global aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years, with over half intended for fleet growth.
• Exhibit 7: Maintenance constitutes a large portion of an aircraft's lifecycle costs, second only to fuel.
• Exhibit 8: Only 41% of airlines use long-term maintenance sourcing strategies at the time of aircraft purchase.
• Exhibit 9: MRO and OEMs are increasing their headcount and making organizational changes to improve competitiveness.
• Exhibit 10: Carrier evaluations of their top MRO providers show a decline in performance ratings compared to previous years.
• Exhibit 11: There is a notable gap in performance perception between airlines and MRO/OEM providers, especially in support services and communication.

Authors

• Chris Spafford – Partner
• Tim Hoyland – Partner
• Roger Lehman – Practice Leader and Partner
• Pete Hagstrom, Jorge Davo, and Tim Cleary – Contributing researchers

This report is part of Oliver Wyman's ongoing efforts to understand and shape the future of the aviation MRO industry.