20230710-上海证券-2023年7月中国经济数据市场预测_经济_通胀平稳_货币回落_3页_557kb

报告摘要

Main Market Consensus: Economic data is expected to show a general decline due to base effects and structural changes, with investment remaining stable while consumption and some growth indicators fall back.
Inflation Expectations: Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to stay neutral with slight volatility, while Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to continue contracting but at a slower pace later in the year, improving cost differential for industrial economy.
Money Supply Trends: Market views money supply as declining, with potential for monetary easing as global conditions improve, supporting a slow economic recovery.
Overall Outlook: The Chinese economy is in a "bottom-dozing" phase, with steady policy support maintaining market stabilization and gradual improvements expected through the year.
Key Risks: Geopolitical conflicts, unexpected inflation spikes, and policy shifts could disrupt this trend.

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