2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Peru_2011_Article_IV_Consultation_Staff_Report_Supplement_and_Public_Information_Notice_62页_1mb

Summary of the 2011 Article IV Consultation with Peru

Core Content

The 2011 Article IV consultation with Peru, conducted by the IMF, evaluated the country's macroeconomic performance, policy challenges, and future outlook. The report highlights Peru's strong economic recovery from the global recession, its fiscal and monetary policy responses, and the broader implications of these policies on growth, inflation, and financial stability.

Key Economic Developments

• Economic Recovery: After a period of low growth in 1998–2001, Peru implemented structural reforms and prudent macroeconomic management, leading to a significant boost in growth potential. Per-capita income tripled from 2001 to 2011, reaching US$5,700.
• Fiscal Performance: Public debt as a percentage of GDP fell from over 50% to about 20% during the same period. Real GDP growth accelerated to an average of 5.75% in 2001–2011, the highest in Peru's history.
• Inflation Trends: Inflation dropped to a 10-year low of 0.25% in 2009 but rose to 4.25% by October 2011 (3.5% for core inflation), exceeding the target band of 1–3%. However, non-fuel, non-food inflation remained within target at 2.33%.
• Fiscal Policy: The fiscal impulse from 2009–2010 began to dissipate in 2011, leading to a fiscal surplus of about 5.5% of GDP. The government focused on completing capital expenditures and reducing public investment delays.
• Monetary Policy: The central bank raised the policy rate by 300 basis points to 1.25% by May 2011, and remained on hold due to global uncertainty. Reserve requirements were increased to manage liquidity and FX risks.
• Financial Sector: The financial system remained sound, profitable, and well-capitalized. Non-performing loan ratios were low (1.5% in mid-2011), and the sector was well-provisioned. The SBS introduced macro-prudential measures, including countercyclical capital requirements and liquidity ratios aligned with Basel III.

Outlook and Risks

• Growth Prospects: GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 6.75% in 2011 and 5.25% in 2012, slightly below trend. The slowdown is attributed to tighter policies and global uncertainty.
• Inflation Trends: Inflation is projected to decline to 3.75% in 2011 and 2.5% in 2012, with expectations well-anchored due to the strong inflation targeting framework.
• Current Account: The external current account deficit is expected to widen to 2.5% of GDP in 2011, driven by higher profit remittances and lower private savings. However, capital inflows are expected to remain strong, supporting the balance of payments.
• Exchange Rate: The Nuevo Sol has remained stable amid global turbulence, and the REER appreciated by about 1% since the last consultation. The Fund classifies Peru's exchange rate regime as de facto floating.

Policy Challenges

Near-Term Challenges

• Fiscal Policy: The government needs to complete the 2011 capital expenditures and manage the fiscal surplus. A small fiscal expansion in 2012 is considered appropriate.
• Monetary Policy: The central bank is advised to keep monetary policy on hold until global economic conditions stabilize.
• Exchange Rate Management: The high level of dollarization and FX risks remain a concern. The SBS has implemented measures to manage these risks, including FX exposure requirements and liquidity ratios.

Medium-Term Challenges

• Reform Agenda: To strengthen macroeconomic stability, growth potential, and social inclusion, Peru should adopt an ambitious reform agenda:
  • Revenue Mobilization: Increase revenue to support higher social spending.
  • Fiscal Framework Strengthening: Improve fiscal transparency and accountability.
  • Prudential Regulations: Continue advancing with macro-prudential and liquidity regulations.
  • Competitiveness: Enhance domestic capital markets and competitiveness.

Social Inclusion and Poverty Reduction

• Social Programs: The government has expanded targeted social programs, contributing to poverty reduction and improved access to basic services.
• Poverty Target: The government aims to reduce the poverty ratio from 31% in 2010 to 20% by 2016.
• New Ministry: A new Ministry of Social Development and Inclusion was established to better coordinate social programs.
• Challenges: Chronic malnutrition among indigenous children and lack of access to social services in rural areas remain significant issues.

Key Policies and Reforms

• Mineral Taxation Reform: Approved in September 2011, the reform includes:
  • New royalties based on operating profits (1–12%).
  • A special mining tax (IEM) of 2–8.4% on operating profits for companies without stability contracts.
  • A special voluntary levy (GEM) of 4–13% on profits for companies with stability contracts.
• Stability Contracts: These contracts, introduced in the mid-1990s, provide a stable legal and tax framework for mining companies. They require an additional 2% in income tax and have limited the scope of new reforms.

Conclusion

Peru has maintained macroeconomic stability and strong growth over the past decade, supported by prudent policy management and structural reforms. However, the new administration faces challenges in balancing social inclusion with macroeconomic stability. The country has significant policy space to address external risks and implement long-term reforms. Continued focus on fiscal discipline, monetary stability, and financial sector resilience will be crucial for sustaining growth and reducing poverty.