> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Greater China Semiconductors Industry Summary - June 4, 2026 ## Core Content Overview This report provides an analysis of the Greater China semiconductor industry, focusing on the AI infrastructure, valuation comparisons, and broader semiconductor cycle trends. It outlines key companies, their performance metrics, and investment outlooks for the period up to 2026. ## Main Investment Ideas ### Top Picks - **AI**: MediaTek, TSMC, SMIC, Aspeed, Alchip, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, ASMPT, AllRing - **Memory**: Macronix, AP Memory, Nanya Tech, Winbond, GigaDevice - **China AI/Semis/WFE**: Iluvatar, Cambricon, NAURA Tech, AMEC, USI - **Testing Equipment and Consumables**: Winway, MPI, Hon Precision, Gudeng - **Mature Nodes**: UMC ### Other Notable Companies - **EW (Emerging Winners)**: GUC, OmniVision, Phison, MetaX, Realtek - **UW (Underweight)**: WIN Semi, Silergy, GlobalWafers, ASMedia ## Long-term Demand Drivers - **Chip Inflation**: Rising wafer, OSAT, and memory costs are creating margin pressures for chip designers in 2026. - **AI Cannibalization**: The semiconductor supply chain is prioritizing AI semiconductors over non-AI ones, leading to shortages in T-Glass and memory. - **China AI**: DeepSeek is driving demand for inferencing AI, with cheaper solutions. The local foundry supply chain is also becoming more capable in AI GPU production. ## Valuation Comparison ### Foundry | Company | Price (6/4/2026) | Price Target | Upside/Downside | Rating | Market Cap (US$M) | 3M Avg. Daily Trading (US$M) | P/E 2025e | P/E 2026e | P/E 2027e | EPS Growth 2025e | EPS Growth 2026e | EPS Growth 2027e | ROAE 2025e | ROAE 2026e | ROAE 2027e | P/B 2025e | P/B 2026e | P/B 2027e | |--------|------------------|--------------|----------------|--------|------------------|-----------------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|------------------|------------------|------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------| | TSMC | 2,385.0 (TWD) | 2,588.0 | 9% | O | 1,952,607 | 2,841.8 | 36.0 | 23.1 | 18.5 | 46% | 56% | 25% | 35% | 41% | 38% | 11.4 | 8.2 | 6.1 | | UMC | 125.0 (TWD) | 138.0 | 10% | O | 49,829 | 513.1 | 37.6 | 27.8 | 22.0 | -12% | 35% | 26% | 11% | 14% | 17% | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | | SMIC | 81.5 (HKD) | 85.0 | 4% | O | 53,817 | 837.7 | NM | NM | NM | 39% | 142% | 45% | 3% | 7% | 10% | NM | NM | NM | | Vanguard | 163.0 (TWD) | 180.0 | 10% | E | 9,565 | 142.6 | 39.0 | 29.8 | 24.1 | 10% | 31% | 24% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 | | Hua Hong | 156.5 (HKD) | 118.0 | -25% | E | 34,774 | 420.2 | NM | NM | NM | -6% | 584% | 55% | 1% | 5% | 7% | NM | NM | NM | | PSMC | 81.0 (TWD) | 88.0 | 9% | O | 10,803 | 444.4 | NM | NM | NM | 40% | -136% | 259% | -13% | 3% | 8% | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | ### Memory | Company | Price (6/4/2026) | Price Target | Upside/Downside | Rating | Market Cap (US$M) | 3M Avg. Daily Trading (US$M) | P/E 2025e | P/E 2026e | P/E 2027e | EPS Growth 2025e | EPS Growth 2026e | EPS Growth 2027e | ROAE 2025e | ROAE 2026e | ROAE 2027e | P/B 2025e | P/B 2026e | P/B 2027e | |--------|------------------|--------------|----------------|--------|------------------|-----------------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|------------------|------------------|------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------| | Giga Device | 529.3 (CNY) | 585.0 | 11% | O | 49,110 | 2,051.9 | NM | 41.3 | 25.6 | 50% | 417% | 62% | 9% | 37% | 42% | NM | 12.9 | 9.2 | | Nanya Tech | 395.0 (TWD) | 380.0 | -4% | O | 38,442 | 1,046.1 | NM | 6.4 | 4.9 | -359% | NM | NM | 4% | 74% | 53% | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 | | Winbond | 179.5 (TWD) | 222.0 | 24% | O | 25,506 | 743.1 | NM | 8.8 | 5.5 | 523% | NM | NM | 4% | 64% | 59% | 7.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | | Phison | 2,580.0 (TWD) | 2,248.0 | -13% | E | 17,757 | 543.9 | 65.0 | 12.9 | 22.0 | 11% | 402% | -41% | 16% | 55% | 25% | 9.4 | 5.6 | 5.5 | | Silicon Motion | 306.6 (USD) | 155.0 | -49% | O | 10,300 | 155.1 | 96.5 | 46.9 | 28.2 | 6% | 106% | 66% | 13% | 24% | 32% | 12.0 | 10.1 | 8.0 | | Macronix | 156.5 (TWD) | 202.0 | 29% | O | 9,169 | 663.8 | NM | NM | NM | 3% | -513% | 183% | -7% | 28% | 53% | 6.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | ### Backend | Company | Price (6/4/2026) | Price Target | Upside/Downside | Rating | Market Cap (US$M) | 3M Avg. Daily Trading (US$M) | P/E 2025e | P/E 2026e | P/E 2027e | EPS Growth 2025e | EPS Growth 2026e | EPS Growth 2027e | ROAE 2025e | ROAE 2026e | ROAE 2027e | P/B 2025e | P/B 2026e | P/B 2027e | |--------|------------------|--------------|----------------|--------|------------------|-----------------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|------------------|------------------|------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------| | ASEH | 593.0 (TWD) | 558.0 | -6% | O | 81,701 | 348.7 | 64.3 | 35.2 | 22.0 | 24% | 83% | 60% | 11% | 19% | 26% | 6.9 | 6.1 | 5.2 | | JCET | 80.1 (CNY) | 50.0 | -38% | E | 19,908 | 969.5 | 91.6 | 55.4 | 40.1 | -3% | 65% | 38% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.1 | | USI | 45.8 (CNY) | 45.4 | -1% | O | 13,926 | 288.2 | 54.8 | 38.5 | 26.0 | 12% | 42% | 48% | 10% | 13% | 17% | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.9 | | KYEC | 322.0 (TWD) | 338.0 | 5% | O | 12,432 | 318.2 | 35.9 | 32.7 | 22.3 | 41% | 10% | 47% | 24% | 22% | 28% | 7.8 | 6.9 | 5.7 | | FOCI | 840.0 (TWD) | 708.0 | -16% | O | 2,789 | 76.8 | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | | WPG | 116.5 (TWD) | 160.0 | 37% | O | 6,177 | 53.8 | 19.6 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 38% | 115% | -2% | 12% | 24% | 21% | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | ## Broader Semiconductor Cycle - **Foundry Utilization**: Expected to reach 80% in 2H26, up from 75% in 1Q25. - **Inventory Days**: As of 4Q25, the supply chain inventory days were at 110, indicating a potential slowdown. - **Non-AI Semi Growth**: Expected to decline in 2026, excluding memory and NVIDIA's AI GPU revenue. ## Historical Trends - When inventory days decrease, semiconductor stock indices tend to increase. - The SOX Index EV/Sales has remained relatively stable at around 4.0x, with some fluctuations. ## Key Takeaways - The semiconductor industry is facing margin pressures due to rising costs. - AI is reshaping the demand landscape, with a shift towards AI-specific semiconductors. - China is emerging as a key player in AI and semiconductor production. - Valuation metrics vary significantly across sectors, with some companies showing strong upside potential while others are underweight. - The broader semiconductor cycle suggests a potential slowdown in non-AI segments.