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2018 Inter-Korean Summit Assessment Summary

Core Content

The session "Assessment of Inter-Korean Summit" was held on May 7, 2018, at the CSIS Headquarters in Washington, D.C., and focused on analyzing the implications of the recent inter-Korean summit between North and South Korea. The discussion was led by moderator Kang, Insun, and featured insights from experts including Dr. Bridget Coggins, Ambassador Robert King, and Dr. Katrin Katz, with input from Ambassador Joseph Yun.

Key Discussions

1. Achievement of Summit Objectives

• Poll Results: 72% believed both leaders achieved their objectives; 20% thought only Kim Jong-un did; 3% thought only Moon Jae-in did.
• Ambassador Robert King emphasized that the real question is what the objectives were. If the goal was to begin a positive process, then both achieved it. However, if the aim was a complete denuclearization, then it was not.
• Dr. Bridget Coggins agreed that the objectives were more limited and that the summit was a first step. The Panmunjom Declaration being published in North Korean media was a positive sign of mutual understanding.
• Dr. Katrin Katz suggested that the summit's short-term objectives were met, including reducing tensions and establishing rapport between the two leaders. She noted that the summit could be an intermediate step toward more significant outcomes.
• Ambassador Joseph Yun believed both leaders achieved their goals. Kim Jong-un’s charm offensive and Moon Jae-in’s respectful treatment by Kim helped change perceptions and set the stage for future diplomacy.

2. Kim Jong-un: A Different Leader?

• Poll Results: 77% believed Kim Jong-un is different from his father and grandfather.
• Ambassador Yun suggested that while Kim Jong-un may be more open to change than his father, he still shares some traits with Kim Il-sung, such as a desire to be seen as a strong leader.
• Dr. Coggins noted that Kim Jong-un’s actions, like mimicking his grandfather’s appearance, indicate a possible alignment with past leadership styles. However, the contact hypothesis suggests that increased engagement may lead to more openness.

3. Peace Regime in the Next Two Years

• Poll Results: 75% believed a North-South peace regime is likely within two years.
• Ambassador King was skeptical about the possibility of a peace regime in the near future. He pointed out that multiple summits are more likely, and that a peace treaty would be complex and time-consuming.
• Dr. Katz viewed the summit as a hopeful development, as it shifted the narrative from war talk to peace discussions. She believed multiple summits would follow.
• Dr. Coggins agreed that multiple summits are likely, and that while the declaration may not be radically different from past agreements, the context has changed significantly.

4. Panmunjom Declaration: A New Chapter or Same Old Script?

• Poll Results: 14% thought it was very different; 47% somewhat different; 39% thought it was the same wine in a different bottle.
• Dr. Coggins preferred the "same wine, different bottle" interpretation, suggesting that while the declaration's content may be similar to past agreements, the current context and stakes are much higher.
• Dr. Katz argued that the declaration is not so different in text but is significantly different in implication due to the current nuclear status of North Korea and the uncertainty from the U.S. side.
• Ambassador Yun noted that the declaration may be seen as a "copy and paste" of previous agreements, but the tone and content showed progress in aligning goals, even if the methods were still vague.

Main Views

• The summit marked a significant shift in tone and behavior, with Kim Jong-un appearing more approachable and Moon Jae-in showing diplomatic strength.
• There is a consensus that the summit was a positive step toward reducing tensions, but the long-term impact remains uncertain.
• The possibility of a peace regime is seen as more likely in the next two to ten years, depending on the level of engagement and progress in denuclearization.
• The summit may be a prelude to further diplomacy, including the upcoming U.S.-North Korea summit with Donald Trump.

Conclusion

The inter-Korean summit was a pivotal moment in the history of Korean relations, with both leaders appearing to have achieved their short-term goals. While the declaration itself may not be radically different from past agreements, the context—North Korea's nuclear capabilities and the evolving U.S. stance—suggests a new phase in the process. The panelists emphasized the importance of continued dialogue and the need to balance optimism with caution in assessing the summit's true impact.