兰德-评估人类商业太空飞行安全法规的准备情况（英）-125页_996kb

Summary of Commercial Spaceflight Safety Regulations Readiness

I. Introduction

The report was commissioned by Congress under the 2015 Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act (CSLCA) to assess the readiness of the commercial space industry to transition to a safety framework that may include regulations. The assessment covers three key areas: (1) progress in adopting voluntary consensus standards; (2) meeting key safety metrics; and (3) overall industry readiness for potential regulation. The analysis concludes that industry is not yet fully prepared but recommends ending the current moratorium (expiring October 1, 2023) to allow for gradual development of regulations, provided the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is adequately funded.

II. Current Status of Voluntary Consensus Standards

• ASTM International has developed six relevant standards, including guidelines for rocket propellant handling and storage.
• Other organizations like ISO, AIAA, and SAE are developing standards covering areas like spacecraft vehicle types, emergency procedures, and test requirements.
• Key challenges include: industry immaturity, varying company practices, proprietary barriers to information sharing, and inconsistent participation in standards bodies.

III. Key Industry Metrics

• Metrics lack clear targets and standardized measures, making progress assessment difficult. Current data shows:
  • Few safety incidents (total catastrophic failures involving commercial human spaceflights).
  • Growing demand (Figure 3.1 shows increasing number of commercial spaceflights).
  • Industry growth exceeds initial projections.
• Key areas needing improvement: data collection on participant purpose of travel (adventure vs. occupation) and operational frequency metrics.

IV. Readiness for Regulation

Framework Analysis

Readiness was assessed based on five factors:

1. Access to regulatory processes
2. Regulatory support and effectiveness
3. Regulatory alignment with technology
4. External effects (costs, security)
5. Political feasibility

Conclusions

• Industry development is still immature but growing rapidly.
• Readiness depends on various company-specific factors rather than universal metrics.
• Ongoing debates about purpose (adventure vs. transport), participant risk acceptance, and informed consent remain unresolved.

V. Comparison to Other Transportation Modes

• Aviation: Evolved through incidents yielding safety regulations via regulatory bodies.
• Rail/Motor Carrier/Maritime: Regulated based on purpose (public transport vs. adventure). Common elements include equipment standards, emergency protocols, and duty-hour limitations.

VI. Recommendations

1. Allow the moratorium to expire on October 1, 2023.
2. Resource the FAA appropriately to engage in standard-setting and rule development.
3. Establish a Space Aerospace Rulemaking Committee (SpARC) to facilitate dialogue between industry and government.
4. Expand voluntary standard development to fill gaps for potential regulations.
5. Develop mechanisms for data-sharing without exposing proprietary information.

Concluding that no immediate regulations are advisable but proper frameworks must be established, allowing both industry innovation and safety to advance systematically over time.