2010年-世界发展银行全球_Rising_Food_Prices_and_Coping_Strategies___Household-level_Evidence_from_Afghanistan_40页_827kb

Rising Food Prices and Coping Strategies: Household-level Evidence from Afghanistan

Core Content

This policy research working paper examines the impact of rising food prices, particularly wheat prices, on household food security and wellbeing in Afghanistan during the 2007/08 global food crisis. The study is based on a unique, nationally-representative, temporally stratified household survey, the National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (NRVA), which includes data from over 20,000 households across all 34 provinces. The paper provides empirical evidence of the effects of food price shocks on consumption, nutrition, and poverty, offering insights that go beyond simulation-based studies.

Main Findings

• Decline in Food Consumption and Security: Real per capita food consumption fell by about 33% during the 2007/08 food price crisis. The percentage of households consuming less than 2,100 calories per person per day increased from 24% to 34%.
• Quality vs. Quantity Trade-off: Households reduced their consumption of nutrient-rich foods (e.g., meat and vegetables) and shifted towards cheaper staple foods, indicating a trade-off between quality and quantity of food consumed.
• Giffen Good Behavior: In urban areas, the demand for wheat products increased despite price rises, suggesting Giffen good behavior.
• Dietary Diversity and Protein Intake: Dietary diversity and protein intake decreased, highlighting the negative impact of food price increases on nutrition.
• Seasonality and Infrastructure: Seasonal variations and poor infrastructure significantly affect food security, especially in remote and conflict-affected areas where transportation is difficult during harsh winters.
• Government Policies and Imports: Government policies that stabilized grain prices and the heavy reliance on food imports, particularly from Pakistan, played a role in mitigating some of the effects of the price shocks.

Methodology and Data

• Data Source: The study uses data from the NRVA 2007/08 survey, which includes household consumption data and district-level market prices.
• Empirical Specification: The paper estimates the relationship between household wellbeing and wheat flour prices using a regression model that includes controls for household demographics, district-level variables, and province-level fixed effects.
• Price Elasticities: The analysis reveals smaller price elasticities with respect to calories than with respect to food consumption, indicating that households adjust their diets in response to price changes.
• Wellbeing Measures: The study examines several measures of wellbeing, including real monthly per capita food consumption, per capita daily calorie and protein intake, household dietary diversity, and expenditure shares by food group.

Context and Relevance

• Economic Context: Afghanistan's economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, with wheat being a major staple. The country faces significant challenges due to conflict, weak governance, and poor infrastructure.
• Importance of the Study: This is one of the few empirical studies on the global food crisis that uses direct measures of household consumption. It also fills a critical gap in data for Afghanistan, which is one of the world's most food-insecure countries.
• Policy Implications: The findings have important implications for policy makers, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to address food insecurity and poverty in conflict-affected and food-import-dependent regions.

Key Variables

• Dependent Variables: Real monthly per capita food consumption, per capita daily calorie and protein intake, household dietary diversity, and expenditure shares by food group.
• Independent Variables: Prices of domestic and imported wheat flour, milk, lamb, rice, vegetable oil, and kerosene.
• Control Variables: Household demographics (age of head, literacy, marital status), district-level variables (topography, rural status), and province-level fixed effects.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that rising food prices during the 2007/08 global crisis had a significant negative impact on household food security and wellbeing in Afghanistan. The empirical approach used in the study provides a more accurate assessment of these effects compared to simulation-based methods, offering valuable insights for future policy and intervention strategies in food-insecure regions.