20260115-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_6页_756kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Fixed Income Daily Market Update

• Bond Price Movements:

  • The ANZNZ 29-31s and MEITUA curve tightened by 3-5bps.
  • JP AT1s and insurance subs edged 0.1-0.3pt higher, with NOMURA 7 Perp leading the gains.
  • GLPSP 4.6 Perp and CKINF 4 Perp rose by 0.3-0.4pt.
  • VLLPM 29 and EHICAR 26 fell by 0.5-0.9pt.
  • In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27-29 recovered 1.2pts, GRNLGR rose 1.1pts, and FTLNHD 27 gained 0.2pt.
  • In KR space, recent new issues SKBTAM/HYNMTR and older HYUELE/LGENSO curves tightened 2-3bps, driven by strong real-money deployment demand from Chinese onshore accounts.
  • POHANG/PKX 28-35s also tightened 1-4bps after new issues of POHANG 31s/36s.
  • In JP space, 5yr financial FRNs tightened 1-3bps, and fixed-rate tranches of MUFG 32-37s tightened 5bps due to foreign account topping.
  • European AT1s were slightly weaker, with offers moving lower by 0.1-0.3pt.
  • In SE Asia, VLLPM 27-29 dropped 0.2-1.5pts, while VEDLN 28-33s remained strong and rose 0.2-0.5pt. GLPSP Perps and IHFLIN 27-30s increased by 0.1-0.2pt.
  • In the Middle East, EBIUH and FABUH 31s held steady, while EBIUH/FABUH FRNs remained well bid by PBs. KFHKK 31s gained 0.1pt. KSA 31s closed unchanged, while KSA 36s edged 0.2pt higher.

• Kuaishou New Issues:

  • The FV of new KUAISH 31s is expected to be T+50bps, lower than IPT at T+85bps.
  • The FV of new KUAISH 36s is expected to be T+65bps, lower than IPT at T+100bps.
  • A 5yr dim sum bond with IPT at 2.95% is also proposed.

China Economy: Rebalancing Remains Challenging

• Export Growth:

  • China's exports of goods grew by 5.5% in 2025, exceeding forecasts, driven by diversification and supply chain rerouting.
  • Exports to the US declined by 20% due to trade and supply chain decoupling, but advanced economies like the EU, UK, Japan, and Australia saw strong growth (8.4%, 7.8%, 3.5%, 7.9% YoY respectively).
  • Developing economies, including ASEAN, Africa, Latin America, and India, saw even faster growth (13.4%, 25.8%, 7.4%, 12.8% YoY respectively).

• Import Growth:

  • Imports of goods stagnated at 0% growth in 2025, outperforming forecasts of -0.5%.
  • This led to a record trade surplus of US$1.19 trillion, about 6.1% of GDP.
  • Import volumes for steel products and auto imports declined by 21.4% and 23.5%, respectively, due to weak domestic demand and self-reliance initiatives.
  • Rubber and machine tool imports increased by 29.3% and showed strong recovery, respectively.

• Economic Imbalances:

  • China's economy is characterized by high savings rates, weak consumer demand, excess supply capacity, deflationary pressure, trade surplus, and low interest rates.
  • The US, in contrast, has low savings rates, inadequate supply capacity, inflationary pressure, trade deficit, and high interest rates.
  • Both countries face high fiscal deficits, but China's fiscal support is directed more towards local governments and enterprises, while the US focuses on household consumption.

• Economic Rebalancing Challenges:

  • Structural reforms are necessary but difficult to implement.
  • China may introduce moderate stimulus for property and consumption sectors, along with anti-involution measures, to counter deflation.
  • If rebalancing is aggressive, reflation expectations, bond yields, RMB, and stocks (especially in cyclical sectors and consumer goods) could rally.
  • If the focus remains on technological innovation and fixed asset investment, market reactions may be more subdued, with tech stocks likely to outperform.

Market Implications

• Policy Expectations:
  • CMBI anticipates the central bank will cut the RRR by 50bps and the LPRs by 10bps in 1Q26.
  • The Ministry of Finance may introduce moderate stimulus for the property and consumption sectors.
  • The scale and focus of these policies will significantly influence China's bond, stock, and FX markets.

New Issues and Market Color

• Onshore Primary Issuances:

  • 110 credit bonds were issued yesterday with RMB83bn raised.
  • Month-to-date, 750 credit bonds were issued for a total of RMB597bn, a 20.6% YoY decrease.

• Key News:

  • Bidu is considering a primary listing in Hong Kong.
  • Biocon concluded a QIP of INR4,150 crore (cUSD460mn).
  • China Energy Reserve and Chemicals Group launched a new exchange offer.
  • Pertamina issued a USD2.5bn 364-day unsecured loan.
  • United Overseas Bank issued SGD850mn PerpNC7 (AT1) at 3%.
  • Vingroup repurchased USD5.8mn of VICVN 10 11/13/28.

Author Certification

• The author certifies that the views expressed in the report reflect personal opinions and that there are no conflicts of interest affecting the report's objectivity.

Important Disclosures

• The report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
• CMBIGM is not liable for any losses incurred from relying on the information in the report.
• The report may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold, or distributed without prior written consent.
• The report is intended for specific institutional investors and may not be provided to others without permission.
• The information is based on publicly available data and may be subject to change.