2023-11-23-牛津经济研究院-到2033年_工业_珠宝和银器行业的白银制造需求驱动因素_21页_724kb

Summary of Silver Demand Forecast for Industrial, Jewelry, and Silverware Sectors (2023-2033)

Core Content

This report provides a forecast of the demand for silver as an intermediate input across three key sectors: industrial, jewelry, and silverware. The analysis is based on output growth projections of these end user industries, weighted by their historical silver consumption in 2022. The forecasts highlight the global shift in demand towards Asia, particularly China, and examine the impact of thrifting (substitution of silver with cheaper alternatives) on demand projections.

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Main Points

• Global Output Growth:

  • The total output of industries using silver as an intermediate input is forecast to increase by 46% in real terms between 2023 and 2033.
  • The electrical and electronics industry is expected to grow by 55%, which is the fastest growth among the three sectors.
  • Jewelry and silverware industries are forecast to grow by 34% and 30%, respectively.

• Geographical Shifts:

  • China is predicted to be the main driver of demand growth for all three sectors.
  • India is expected to see a significant portion of growth in jewelry and silverware, though it may lose some dominance in jewelry to China.
  • Asia is expected to account for 76% of the additional output growth for industries using silver as an intermediate input.

• Thrifting Impact:

  • The process of thrifting, where manufacturers reduce silver usage to cut costs, affects the accuracy of demand forecasts.
  • Thrifting is more prevalent in mature production processes and may lead to upper bound estimates for silver demand growth.
  • Examples of thrifting include using thinner layers, substituting cheaper materials, and miniaturization of components.

• Methodology:

  • Forecasts are based on Oxford Economics' Global Industry Model, which links industry output to macroeconomic factors.
  • The model uses weighted output growth by country, based on historical silver consumption data.
  • The assumption of constant input-to-output ratio over the decade is central to the methodology, though it may not hold if new technologies or substitution occur.

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Key Sectors and Growth Forecasts

1. Industrial Silver

• Electrical and Electronics Demand:

  • Accounts for 67% of global industrial silver use in 2022.
  • Forecasted to grow by 55% (4.5% annual average), with 65% of the growth occurring in China.
  • China will have a 60% share of the total output of the three industrial segments by 2033.

• Brazing Alloys Demand:

  • Accounts for 9% of global industrial silver use in 2022.
  • Forecasted to grow by 34% (3.0% annual average), with 41% of the growth in China.
  • China will have a 40% share of the output of the five major brazing alloy industries by 2033.

• Other Industrial Demand:

  • Accounts for 24% of global industrial silver use in 2022.
  • Forecasted to grow by 26% (2.5% annual average in first five years, 2.1% in the second five years).
  • China is expected to account for 48% of the growth in other industrial uses of silver.

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2. Jewelry Sector

• Global Silver Use:

  • 71% of silver used for jewelry manufacturing was in Asia in 2022.
  • India used 48% of the global silver for jewelry in 2022.

• Forecasted Growth:

  • Demand for silver in jewelry manufacturing is expected to increase by 34% (3.4% annual average in the first five years, 2.5% in the second five years).
  • China is forecast to account for 51% of the growth in the jewelry sector, while India is expected to contribute 2%.

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3. Silverware Sector

• Global Silver Use:

  • India accounted for 73% of the global silverware market in 2022.
  • Nepal and China contributed 8% and 3%, respectively.

• Forecasted Growth:

  • The structural metal manufacturing industry (which includes silverware production) is expected to grow by 29% (2.6% annual average), with 43% of the growth coming from India.
  • India's share of silverware output will decrease slightly to 43% of the growth, from 73% of total consumption in 2022.

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Conclusion

• The industrial, jewelry, and silverware sectors are projected to see significant growth in output between 2023 and 2033.
• Asia, especially China, is expected to dominate this growth, reflecting a global shift in manufacturing activity.
• Thrifting and technological changes may affect the accuracy of these forecasts, potentially reducing the actual demand for silver.
• The report serves as a guide for investment and resource allocation in the silver industry, emphasizing the importance of understanding demand trends and their regional implications.