2001年-世界发展银行全球_Armenia___Restructuring_to_Sustain_Universal_General_Education_76页_4mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Armenia: Restructuring to Sustain Universal General Education"

Core Content

This document is a World Bank Technical Paper No. 498 titled Armenia: Restructuring to Sustain Universal General Education, authored by Gillian Perkins and Ruslan Yevtsov. It focuses on the financial and structural challenges facing Armenia's education system post-Soviet Union dissolution and outlines the need for restructuring to maintain the quality and universality of general education.

Main Purpose

The main purpose of the study is to clarify the implications of inefficiencies in the education system, highlight trade-offs between different policy options, and identify further measures needed to promote restructuring and secure adequate financing for the system over the medium term.

Key Issues and Findings

1. Current Education System Challenges

Fiscal Constraints: Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia experienced a sharp economic contraction, with GDP falling by 70%. The share of GDP allocated to education dropped from 8% in 1989 to 2% currently.
High Staffing Ratios: The pupil/teacher ratio remains extremely low (around 10), and there is excess capacity in school buildings, estimated at 20%.
Underfunded Maintenance: Lack of funding for school building maintenance and heating systems threatens the health and safety of students and staff and will lead to increased future costs.
Low Teacher Salaries: Teacher salaries are far below subsistence level, leading to poor teaching quality and limited resources for in-service training.
Dependence on Non-Budgetary Funding: Public schools rely heavily on non-budgetary sources to meet basic needs, resulting in growing inequities and long-term risks for education quality and access.

2. Rationalization Necessity

The current system cannot be sustained without major rationalization.
The existing budget is insufficient to fund the full costs of maintaining the primary-secondary education system even under optimistic economic growth scenarios.
Adequate funding without changes in staffing ratios would require four times the current budget.
Cutting staff is also not a viable solution, as it would lead to unacceptable class sizes and redundancy of 63% of the teaching force.

3. Model and Scenarios

A cost projection model was developed to estimate the impact of different restructuring scenarios on the education budget up to 2009.
The baseline scenario assumes constant staffing ratios and physical inputs, projecting that the education budget would need to be 5.5% of GDP by 2007, which is manageable but unacceptable in terms of education quality and sustainability.
The Ministry of Education’s rationalization plan is realistic but unaffordable under current fiscal projections.
The Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) proposed by the Ministry of Finance is budget-focused but fails to meet critical needs such as teacher pay, building maintenance, and teaching materials.

4. Proposed Solutions

Rationalization of Staffing and Buildings: Targeting a pupil/teacher ratio of 20 is recommended to improve efficiency and reduce costs, while maintaining quality.
Autonomy for Schools: Increasing school autonomy through capitation funding and school-based budget management is seen as a key step to improve efficiency and innovation.
Multi-Grade and Multi-Subject Classes: Implementing multi-grade classes and multi-subject teaching can help reduce staffing needs and improve pedagogical outcomes.
School Mergers: Consolidating underutilized schools and merging classes can help reduce costs and improve resource utilization.

Policy Implications

To sustain universal general education in Armenia, the following three fronts must be addressed:

Restructuring: Improve the efficiency of teacher deployment and building utilization.
Higher Budget Priority: Ensure general education receives higher priority in the national budget.
Effective Mobilization of Non-Budgetary Resources: Enhance the use of non-budgetary funding to support essential inputs.

Conclusion

The study concludes that major rationalization is necessary to sustain universal access and quality of education in Armenia. While the current reforms are a step in the right direction, more action is needed at the national level to address the systemic inefficiencies and ensure long-term sustainability.

Key Figures and Data

Table 1: Evolution of the education budget in Armenia.
Table 2: Structure of the national budget for education.
Table 3: Sources of finance to general education.
Table 4: Structure and execution of the budget for general education in 1998.
Table 5 and 6: Number of teachers and classes by 2007.
Figure 1: Share of the state budget required by general education to cover norms by 2007.
Figure 2: Average expenditures on education for households with school-age children.
Figure 3 and 4: Teachers' wages and students/teacher ratio under MTEF budgetary forecast.
Figure 5 and 6: Capital renovation needs and accumulated arrears on maintenance.
Figure 7: Cumulative financing gap (% of GDP) since 1996.
Figure 8: Budget for general education under macro scenarios.
Figure 9: Demographic projections for children in school age.
Figure 10, 11, 12, 13: Restructuring scenarios for various ratios and sizes.
Figure 14 and 15: Teacher salaries and their relation to GDP per capita.
Figure 16: Teachers’ salary costs in the general education budget.
Figure 17: Capital renovation needs and accumulated arrears on maintenance.
Figure 18: Heating cost and temperature in classes during winter.
Figure 19 and 20: Public costs of general education and their composition.
Figure 21 and 22: Ministry of Education norms and their breakdown.
Figure 23 and 24: MTEF projections for public costs of general education.
Figure 25: Cumulative financing gap (% of GDP) since 1996.
Figure 26: Cost of general education under existing and 11-year curriculum.
Figure 27: Impact of changing assumptions on student/teacher ratio on MTEF budget.
Figure 28 and 29: Restructuring scenarios for student/teacher ratio and class size.

Key Boxes

Box 1: Costs of implementing district-level rationalization.
Box 2: The model of heating costs.

Acronyms and Abbreviations

ASIF: Armenia Social Investment Fund
CIS: Commonwealth of Independent States
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
MoES: Ministry of Education and Science
MoF: Ministry of Finance
MTEF: Medium Term Expenditure Framework
OECD: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
PPP: Purchasing Power Parity
USAID: United States Agency for International Development
VET: Vocational education and training

Currency and Equivalents

Dram: The currency used in the study.
US$1.0 = 537.20 Drams (as of October 24, 2000).

Authors and Contributors

Gillian Perkins: Consultant to the human development sector of the Europe and Central Asia region at the World Bank.
Ruslan Yevtsov: Economist for the poverty reduction and economic management sector of the Europe and Central Asia region at the World Bank.
Ana Revenga: Instrumental in conceiving and initiating the study.
Ruzanna Gevorgyan: Played an important role in data gathering and coordination.
Maureen Lewis and Tom Hoopengardner: Provided valuable comments on early drafts.
Susanna Hayrepetyan: Facilitated dissemination and discussion of the draft report.
Aida Topuzyan, Karine Haroutyunyan, Victor Matriossyan, Vahe Topalyan, Robert Stepanyan, Karen Melkomyan, and Ara Avetisyan: Contributed comments and insights.
Lev Frienkman: Bank’s Program Team Leader.
Samuel Otoo: Sector Manager.
Judy O'Connor: Country Director.

Policy Recommendations

Implement school rationalization with a target pupil/teacher ratio of at least 20.
Increase school autonomy through capitation funding and school-based budget management.
Promote multi-grade and multi-subject classes to improve efficiency and reduce staffing needs.
Merge schools to reduce excess capacity and improve resource allocation.
Ensure adequate funding for essential inputs such as heating, maintenance, and teaching materials.
Improve teacher salaries and training resources to enhance teaching quality and sustainability.

This study is a key reference for policymakers in Armenia and other CIS countries facing similar challenges in education reform and resource allocation.

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