20260211-招银国际-极智嘉-W-02590.HK-Official_launch_of_humanoid_robots_for_warehouse_6页_778kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Geekplus (2590 HK) # Official launch of humanoid robots for warehouse Geekplus announced the official launch of Gino 1, the world's first general-purpose robot designed specifically for warehousing scenarios (link). Geekplus reveals that Gino 1 possess human-like ability to perform multiple warehouse tasks including picking, box/case moving, packing and inspecting. Based on our understanding, Gino 1 will be packaged together with AMR products as solution offerings to client at this stage, before entering the stage of promotion and mass production. We believe, through the launch of Gino 1, Geekplus is on track to capture the picking and packaging segment in the warehouse automation. We will revisit our TP (currently HK$26.7, based on 7.7x 2026E P/S) after the release of the full-year earnings. Maintain BUY. ■ Embodied intelligence to expand downstream applications. Geekplus's embodied intelligence mainly refers to AI-powered robotic arm picking and general-purpose robots. As mentioned by management in 2025, $60 - 70\%$ of human work in the warehouse can be performed by warehouse fulfilment AMRs, while the remaining $30 - 40\%$ (mainly picking and packaging) can be performed by robotic arms. Geekplus believes downstream expansion can further enhance the solutions offering to customers. ■ Investment theme. On the back of technological innovation in autonomous mobile robots (AMR) with $>800$ end customers across 40 countries, Geekplus $(80\%)$ revenue from overseas in 1H25) is set to ride on the structural increase in the penetration rate of warehouse fulfilment AMRs over the coming years. Key risks. (1) Technology risk; (2) threat of new entrants; (3) Unable to achieve turnaround of profit. Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec) FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E FY27E Revenue (RMB mn) 2,143 2,409 3,176 4,316 5,788 YoY growth (%) 47.6 12.4 31.9 35.9 34.1 Adjusted net profit (RMB mn) (457.6) (92.2) 112.0 401.6 673.5 EPS (Reported) (RMB cents) 0.00 0.00 5.02 27.85 47.83 YoY growth (%) na na na 455.1 71.7 Consensus EPS (RMB cents) na na 5.79 22.50 44.55 P/S (x) 15.7 13.9 10.6 7.8 5.8 P/E (x) na na 493.7 88.9 51.8 Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ROE (%) na na na 10.8 16.2 Net gearing (%) na na (60.9) (57.6) (45.0) Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates # BUY (Maintain) Target Price HK$26.70 Up/Downside (4.4%) Current Price HK$27.94 # China Capital Goods Wayne FUNG, CFA (852) 3900 0826 waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Mkt Cap (HK$ mn) 37,881.1 Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn) 73.1 52w High/Low (HK$) NA/NA Total Issued Shares (mn) 1355.8 Source:FactSet Shareholding Structure Zheng Yong (Class A, WVR) 6.1% Zheng Yong (Class B) 4.1% Source: HKEX Share Performance 12-mth Price Performance Absolute Relative 1-mth 11.3% 7.4% 3-mth 11.7% 9.5% 6-mth 50.2% 37.4% Source:FactSet Source:FactSet # Related report: Geekplus (initiation) - A rising star in global AMR for warehouse automation; a unique play in HK market - 14 Aug 2025 (link) Geekplus 1H25 results in-line; Embodied robots the new driver - 2 Sep 2025 (link) Figure 1: Geekplus warehouse robot (Gino 1) Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 2: Gino 1 RGB camera Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 3: Dexterous hand with 7 degrees of freedom (each) Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 4: Chassis equipped with front and rear hemispherical 3D LiDAR sensors Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 5: Embodied intelligence VLA fast-slow collaboration system Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 6: Key assumptions (RMB mn) 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E Revenue Sales of AMR solution 1,247 2,124 2,402 3,171 4,311 5,783 Warehouse fulfilment 1,099 1,885 2,176 3,047 4,174 5,635 Industrial material transport 149 240 226 124 137 148 Raas 205 19 7 5 5 5 Total revenue 1,452 2,143 2,409 3,176 4,316 5,788 Revenue growth Sales of AMR solution 117.1% 70.3% 13.1% 32.0% 35.9% 34.1% Warehouse fulfilment 118.9% 71.5% 15.5% 40.0% 37.0% 35.0% Industrial material transport 104.3% 61.2% -5.6% -45.0% 10.0% 8.0% Raas -4.8% -90.8% -64.5% -20.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total revenue growth 83.9% 47.6% 12.4% 31.9% 35.9% 34.1% Gross profit Sales of AMR solution 429 766 881 1,173 1,656 2,260 Warehouse fulfilment 402 735 854 1,158 1,640 2,243 Industrial material transport 27 31 27 15 16 17 Raas -53 -7 -2 -2 -2 -2 Write-down of inventories -120 -100 -42 0 0 0 Total gross profit 257 659 837 1,171 1,655 2,258 Gross margin Sales of AMR solution 34.4% 36.1% 36.7% 37.0% 38.4% 39.1% Warehouse fulfilment 36.6% 39.0% 39.2% 38.0% 39.3% 39.8% Industrial material transport 18.4% 12.9% 12.1% 12.0% 11.8% 11.8% Raas -25.9% -35.3% -33.2% -33.0% -33.0% -33.0% Blended gross margin 17.7% 30.8% 34.8% 36.9% 38.3% 39.0% Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Financial Summary INCOME STATEMENT 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Revenue 1,452 2,143 2,409 3,176 4,316 5,788 Cost of goods sold (1,196) (1,484) (1,572) (2,005) (2,661) (3,530) Gross profit 257 659 837 1,171 1,655 2,258 Selling expense (456) (509) (446) (508) (548) (695) Admin expense (221) (264) (220) (238) (259) (301) R&D expense (437) (380) (282) (349) (440) (550) Other income 70 14 (15) 0 0 0 Other gains/(losses) (732) (648) (686) 0 0 0 Share of (losses)/profits of associates/JV (15) 15 0 1 1 1 EBITDA (682) (408) (79) 105 440 746 Depreciation 125 88 62 42 44 44 EBIT (807) (496) (141) 62 396 702 Interest income 3 20 14 27 43 43 Interest expense (12) (13) (14) (14) (16) (17) Net Interest income/(expense) (10) 6 (0) 13 27 26 Pre-tax profit (1,564) (1,123) (827) 76 424 729 Income tax (3) (4) (4) (8) (47) (80) Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit (1,567) (1,127) (832) 68 378 648 Adjusted net profit (821) (458) (92) 112 402 673 Gross dividends 0 0 0 0 0 0 BALANCE SHEET 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Current assets 3,249 3,267 2,929 5,652 6,466 7,658 Cash & equivalents 1,121 760 636 2,470 2,631 2,510 Account receivables 373 708 714 1,027 1,338 1,833 Inventories 1,185 1,191 1,029 1,498 1,710 2,351 ST bank deposits 90 99 131 131 131 131 Financial assets at FVTPL 0 51 0 0 0 0 Other current assets 479 457 419 526 656 832 Non-current assets 185 180 276 357 417 476 PP&E 99 91 197 287 354 418 Deferred income tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 Investment in JVs & assoc 21 35 32 33 34 34 Intangibles 9 12 13 13 14 14 Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0 Financial assets at FVTPL 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other non-current assets 56 43 34 24 16 11 Total assets 3,434 3,447 3,204 6,009 6,883 8,134 Current liabilities 7,717 8,844 9,404 2,664 3,161 3,763 Short-term borrowings 211 421 414 464 514 564 Account payables 642 821 1,000 1,308 1,754 2,307 Tax payable 2 0 2 2 2 2 Other current liabilities 6,862 7,601 7,989 891 891 891 Non-current liabilities 45 47 49 49 49 49 Long-term borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other non-current liabilities 45 47 49 49 49 49 Total liabilities 7,762 8,890 9,453 2,713 3,210 3,812 Total shareholders equity (4,328) (5,443) (6,249) 3,296 3,674 4,322 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total equity and liabilities 3,434 3,447 3,204 6,009 6,883 8,134 CASH FLOW 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) Operating Profit before taxation (1,564) (1,123) (827) 76 424 729 Depreciation & amortization 125 124 124 42 44 44 Tax paid (1) (6) (2) (8) (47) (80) Change in working capital (134) (382) (282) (581) (207) (760) Others 926 916 882 (14) (28) (27) Net cash from operations (648) (471) (106) (484) 187 (94) Investing Capital expenditure (36) (46) (97) (120) (100) (100) Acquisition of subsidiaries/ investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others (184) 15 145 24 40 40 Net cash from investing (219) (31) 48 (96) (60) (60) Financing Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net borrowings 131 210 (7) 50 50 50 Proceeds from share issues 1,450 0 0 2,379 0 0 Others (77) (60) (49) (14) (16) (17) Net cash from financing 1,505 150 (56) 2,414 34 33 Net change in cash Cash at the beginning of the year 0 1,121 760 636 2,470 2,631 Exchange difference 484 (9) (11) 0 0 0 Cash at the end of the year 1,121 760 636 2,470 2,631 2,510 GROWTH 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec Revenue na 47.6% 12.4% 31.9% 35.9% 34.1% Gross profit na 157.0% 27.0% 39.9% 41.3% 36.5% EBITDA na na na na 321.2% 69.5% EBIT na na na na 539.0% 77.1% Net profit na na na na 455.1% 71.7% Adj. net profit na na na na 258.5% 67.7% PROFITABILITY 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec Gross profit margin 17.7% 30.8% 34.8% 36.9% 38.3% 39.0% EBITDA margin (47.0%) (19.0%) (3.3%) 3.3% 10.2% 12.9% Adj. net profit margin (56.5%) (21.4%) (3.8%) 3.5% 9.3% 11.6% Return on equity (ROE) na na na na 10.8% 16.2% GEARING/LIQUIDITY/ACTIVITIES 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec Net debt to equity (x) na na na (0.6) (0.6) (0.5) Current ratio (x) 0.4 0.4 0.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 Receivable turnover days 46.9 92.1 107.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 Inventory turnover days na 292.3 257.8 230.0 220.0 210.0 Payable turnover days na 180.0 211.5 210.0 210.0 210.0 VALUATION 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E YE 31 Dec P/E ns ns ns 493.7 88.9 51.8 P/B na na ns 10.2 9.1 7.8 Div yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates. 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