2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Proposed_New_Grouping_in_WEO_Country_Classifications_Low_7页_560kb

IMF Policy Paper Summary: Proposed New Grouping in WEO Country Classifications – Low Income Developing Countries (LIDCs)

Core Content

The IMF staff report, released on June 4, 2014, proposes a new country classification called Low Income Developing Countries (LIDCs). This grouping aims to enhance the Fund's ability to analyze and address issues specific to low-income countries in its flagship publications and analytical work. The report outlines the rationale, methodology, and implications of this new definition.

Main Objectives

• To create a standardized definition of "low income country" for use in IMF analytical work.
• To facilitate better coverage of low-income country issues in the Fund's publications.
• To improve the accuracy of cross-country analysis by excluding countries that do not share the developmental characteristics of low-income countries, even if they have similar income levels.

Current Framework

• The World Economic Outlook (WEO) classification system currently divides IMF members into:
  • 34 advanced countries.
  • 154 Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs).
• The EMDE category is not formally divided into subgroups, but there is significant discussion of EMs (e.g., BRICS).
• 73 EMDEs are eligible for concessional financial assistance via the PRGT (Poorest Developing Countries Trust Fund).
• However, the PRGT-eligible group includes a disproportionate number of small states, which may skew analytical insights when using medians or un-weighted averages.

Proposed New Definition

• The proposed LIDC group includes 60 countries that:
  • Were PRGT-eligible in the 2013 PRGT eligibility exercise.
  • Had a per capita GNI below $2,390, which is 2 times the IDA operational threshold.
• The income cutoff was chosen based on the PRGT graduation level for non-small states, as it aligns with the Fund’s operational framework and is closely related to the World Bank’s IDA cutoff level.
• An alternative cutoff based on the World Bank’s $1,025 per capita GNI (for distinguishing between LICs and LMICs) was considered but rejected due to its inability to capture similar developmental characteristics among countries.

Key Findings

• Three countries (India, Pakistan, and the Philippines) were PRGT-eligible but excluded from the LIDC group due to their significant access to international financial markets, and they are generally classified as emerging market economies (EMs).
• A group of 23 countries with per capita GNI levels above the LIDC cutoff but below the LMIC cutoff were analyzed for their developmental characteristics.
  • These 23 countries were split into three subgroups:
    1. PRGT-eligible countries (7 in total, all small states).
    2. Former PRGT-eligible countries (not eligible anymore).
    3. Other countries.
• The development indicators (poverty rate, life expectancy, share of agriculture in GDP, agricultural employment, and domestic credit to the private sector) of these 23 countries were compared with:
  • The LIDC control group.
  • The EM control group.
• The only country in the 23 that showed significant LIDC-like characteristics was Angola, due to its high poverty rate and low life expectancy, despite its higher income level.
• Therefore, Angola was excluded from the LIDC group, which was finalized as the 60 countries meeting the two criteria.

Conclusion

• The LIDC grouping is intended to be a standardized and meaningful classification for low-income countries.
• The membership of LIDCs will be reviewed regularly based on income levels and PRGT eligibility reviews.
• The report emphasizes that the use of the new definition is encouraged, but not mandatory, in IMF analytical work.

Key Information

• Total LIDCs: 60 countries.
• Income cutoff: $2,390 (2 × IDA operational threshold).
• Countries excluded from LIDC group:
  • India, Pakistan, and the Philippines due to their access to international financial markets.
  • Angola was excluded due to its developmental characteristics not aligning with the LIDC group, despite being above the income cutoff.
• Countries with income above LIDC cutoff but below LMIC cutoff: 23 countries, with varying eligibility and developmental status.

Tables Summary

• Table 1: Lists the 60 LIDCs based on the proposed criteria.
• Table 2: Provides a ranking of IMF member countries by per capita income level, highlighting the cutoff points for LIDCs and LMICs.

This new classification aims to improve the accuracy and relevance of the IMF's analysis and reporting on low-income countries.