2025-05-15-Jefferies-埃尔姆公司（ELM）_对第一季度及以后的进一步思考_7页_200kb

Equity Research Summary: Elm Company (ELM AB)

Key Highlights

• Recommendation: Buy
• Price Target: SAR 1,440 (up from SAR 1,063)
• Digital Revenue Analysis: Q1 results showed a 2x quarterly deceleration, driven by the projects (due to volatility and booking delays) and Nusuk segments. The miss is attributed to these factors, with expectations for recovery starting from Q2.
• Absher Performance: Transactions accelerated in April, with automated operations growing 113% YoY, indicating strong macro resilience and transaction growth.
• Valuation: Based on a DCF model with a 5.0% PGR assumption, yielding an attractive 34x 12-month forward P/E.
• Risks: Weaker Saudi macroeconomy (oil-dependent), slower digitalization of public services, intensified competition in BPO, tech talent shortages, FCF pressures from working capital, and execution risks.

Analyst Certification

• Views reflect personal analysis independent of compensation ties.