20230823-招银国际-China_Technology__Global_fabless／IDM_2Q23_wrap__expect_continued_inventory_correction_for_non-AI_players__All_eyes_on_NVDA_3Q23E_guidance_4页_657kb

Bloomberg Report Summary: China Technology Sector and Global Semiconductors

Q2 2023 Performance

Global fabless/IDM semiconductor companies, such as AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, TI, Infineon, STM, MTK, and OnSemi, reported mostly in-line Q2 2023 revenues but mixed results due to diversified AI exposure. Non-AI players faced slower consumer demand recovery and inventory digestion, leading to declining gross profit margins in Q2 2023. Revenue QoQ growth was seen for some companies (e.g., AMD +11%, TI +3%) despite weaknesses in smartphone and consumer electronics segments.

Q3 2023 Outlook

For Q3 2023, most fabless firms guided for continued revenue QoQ growth, except for Infineon which expected flat performance. AI-exposed companies like AMD and Intel showed strong GPM improvements due to high-value data center products, while others anticipated ongoing margin pressure from inventory correction, pricing, and capacity costs.

AI Impact

AI-related products are a key growth driver amid industry-wide demand weakness. Server shipments for AI applications are booming, but broader server market inventory correction continues into 2023. Major cloud players have reduced capital expenditures, reflecting a slowdown in IT infrastructure demand despite AI pull.

NVIDIA Guidance

NVIDIA's prior CY2Q23 (FY2Q24) revenue guidance expected 53% QoQ growth in Q2 2023, contrasted with weaker forecasts for AMD and Intel in datacenter segments. Foundry price cuts are anticipated to boost margins for upstream fabless players in Q3-Q4 2023.

Other Highlights

• Non-AI firms saw rising days of inventory, but demand weakness persists in smartphone/PC/server sectors.
• Global cloud CAPEX is declining, affecting IT infrastructure.
• Charts and data provided for server shipments, CAPEX trends, and valuations.

Valuation and Ratings

CMBIGM assigns ratings (BUY/HOLD/SELL/OUTPERFORM/MARKET-PERFORM/UNDERPERFORM) based on 12-month performance expectations. A valuation table includes market caps, prices, P/E/P/B ratios, and ROE for key players like NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Broadcom, and Texas Instruments.

Disclosures

The report includes certifications by analysts, risk statements, and compliance disclosures applicable to various regions (e.g., HK, UK, US, Singapore), emphasizing potential conflicts of interest and lack of liability.