20250713-东吴证券-海外周报_特朗普_对等关税2.0_威胁延期至8月1日_7页_626kb

Macro Weekly Report Summary - July 13, 2025

Key Points

• Core issue: Trump's extended deadline for "equivalent tariffs 2.0" to August 1, 2025, with new tariffs on 25 countries and regions.
• Market reaction: Relatively calm, with US stocks and bonds affected by tariff threats increasing inflation fears.
• Economic data: FOMC minutes showed hawkish stance, NFIB small business optimism steady, and GDP growth forecasts revised.

Market Impact

• US stocks slightly declined; 10-year US Treasury yield rose 6.75bps to 4.409% amid inflation concerns.
• Bonds and currencies showed mixed performance; gold prices rose while dollar index increased.
• Trade tensions led to cautious investor behavior, including TACO strategies betting on further delays.

Macroeconomic Overview

• Inflation pressure from tariffs cooled rate cut expectations; FOMC officials cautioned against overly aggressive easing.
• GDP predictions for Q2 2025 range from 1.56% to 2.6%, with underlying data indicating persistent economic uncertainty.
• Policy risks include unforeseen decisions from Trump, potential inflation spikes, or financial system strains.

Future Outlook

• Ongoing negotiations may delay tariffs further; market watch for August 1 implementation.
• Overall economy under pressure from trade policies and inflation; cautious stance prevails.

Risks

• High policy uncertainty, including chances of tariff escalation.
• Inflation risks if tariffs persistently affect long-term price trends.
• Financial stability threats from prolonged high interest rates.