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Summary of "Iraq's Tangled Foreign Interests and Relations" by Paul Salem

Core Content

Iraq's foreign policy remains fragmented and incoherent a decade after the fall of Saddam Hussein. The country's internal divisions, particularly between the Shia-dominated central government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Erbil, have led to conflicting international priorities and weakened the ability of Baghdad to implement a unified foreign policy.

Main Views

• Lack of Coherent Foreign Policy: Iraq lacks a centralized and institutionalized foreign policy. The central government, led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, has struggled to assert authority over foreign relations, which are often pursued by regional actors and political factions.

• Regional and Global Alliances: Iraq has sought to rebuild relations with regional and global partners to advance its national interests. These include military cooperation with the U.S. and Russia, energy partnerships with Western, Chinese, and Russian firms, and diplomatic ties with Iran, Turkey, Gulf states, and others.

• Centrist Foreign Policy: Despite challenges, there is a general trend toward a more centrist, less ideological foreign policy. This approach emphasizes economic development, regional cooperation, and stability over military confrontation and geopolitical rivalry.

• Impact of the Syrian Conflict: The ongoing civil war in Syria has significantly affected Iraq's foreign policy. Baghdad has aligned with the Assad regime to counter the threat of al-Qaeda, while Erbil and Sunni Arab groups have supported the rebels, increasing regional tensions.

• Energy as a Key Interest: Iraq's energy sector is central to its foreign policy. The country has the fifth-largest proven oil reserves in the world and is working to diversify its export routes and attract investment. However, internal disputes over oil contracts and resource control have hindered progress.

• Military Modernization: Baghdad has sought to modernize its military through arms deals with the U.S., Russia, and the Czech Republic. Despite these efforts, its military lacks significant airpower and mechanized armor, and it faces challenges from external actors and internal factions.

• Water Security: Iraq's water needs are critical to its foreign policy. The Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which originate in Turkey and Iran, are key to the country's survival. Baghdad has been unable to fully control water resources, leading to tensions with its neighbors.

Key Information

Iraq's Foreign Policy Priorities

• Military Capacity: Strengthening the national army to secure borders, territory, and airspace.
• Energy Development: Reviving the oil and gas sector to meet domestic demand and boost exports.
• Trade and Investment: Encouraging foreign investment and expanding trade routes with regional and international partners.
• Water Access: Securing access to water resources from Turkey and Iran.

Bilateral Relations

• Baghdad and Tehran: Close security cooperation, but Iraq does not rely on Iran for military support due to its lack of a robust arms industry.
• Baghdad and Turkey: Tensions over oil export routes and Kurdish autonomy, but potential for improved relations through pipeline projects.
• Baghdad and Gulf States: Mixed relations, with some support for Baghdad's security and economic policies, but also competition over regional influence.
• KRG and Regional Powers: The KRG has developed its own foreign relations, particularly with Turkey, and has pursued independent energy contracts.

Syria's Influence on Iraq

• The Syrian conflict has forced Baghdad to support Assad to counter the threat of al-Qaeda, while the KRG and Sunni groups have aligned with the rebels.
• This has deepened Iraq's internal divisions and created a more polarized foreign policy landscape.

Economic and Strategic Outlook

• Iraq's economy is growing rapidly, driven by its energy sector, but it has not regained significant political or strategic influence in the region.
• A centrist foreign policy is seen as the best path for Iraq to achieve stability and economic development, rather than deepening regional alliances with Iran or other external powers.

Challenges to Coherence

• The KRG and various Sunni factions continue to pursue their own foreign agendas, undermining the central government's efforts.
• The influence of external powers, including the U.S., Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, complicates Iraq's ability to establish a unified foreign policy.

Conclusion

Iraq's foreign policy is shaped by its internal divisions and external pressures. While the country has made strides in rebuilding its economic and military foundations, the lack of a centralized policy and the competing interests of its various factions prevent it from becoming a cohesive and influential regional power. A successful foreign policy will require resolving domestic conflicts, particularly over energy and territorial issues, and fostering cooperation with a wide range of regional and global partners.