战略与国际研究中心-Japan-Watch-November-2000-Issue_2页_190kb

Mori Cabinet Survived Kato Revolt But Still Shaky

Core Content

The Mori Cabinet narrowly avoided a no-confidence motion in late November, which was supported by the Kato and Yamazaki factions of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the opposition. Despite the threat of a majority vote against the cabinet, the motion was ultimately rejected, preserving Mori's position as prime minister. However, the cabinet remains in a precarious state, with internal LDP divisions and declining public support.

Main Points

• Kato Revolt Context:
  The Kato faction, along with Yamazaki, aimed to challenge the Mori Cabinet by supporting a no-confidence motion. They sought to leverage this as a means to gain political leverage and possibly succeed Mori as the next LDP leader.

• Strategies to Prevent the Motion:
  The LDP mainstream factions used both incentives and threats to dissuade anti-mainstream members from supporting the motion. They offered government positions and hinted at a potential cabinet reshuffle, while also warning of possible expulsion from the party and loss of financial support.

• Internal LDP Divisions:
  Some senior Kato faction members, including former Finance Minister Miyazawa and former Foreign Minister Ikeda, did not fully support Kato. Their withdrawal weakened the faction's position, leading to the abandonment of the no-confidence motion.

• Outcome of the Vote:
  The no-confidence motion was defeated 237 to 190, with 52 abstentions. This outcome prevented the cabinet from being toppled, but highlighted the deepening internal conflict within the LDP.

Key Information

• Public Support for Mori Cabinet:
  According to a Yomiuri Shimbun poll, Mori's support rate had dropped to 18.4%, with 70.5% non-support. Notably, the non-support rate among LDP supporters (43.3%) exceeded the support rate (41.7%) for the first time since the cabinet's formation.

• Public Opinion on Kato's Motion:
  49% of respondents supported Kato's no-confidence motion, while 36% opposed it. A significant portion (49%) also expected a new coalition involving parts of the LDP and the opposition.

• Future Uncertainty:
  Although the cabinet survived, its future remains uncertain. There is no clear consensus on Mori's successor within the LDP, and the possibility of his replacement is linked to the party's convention in March 2001. If Mori's approval ratings do not improve by then, a leadership change is likely.

• Political Paralysis:
  The political situation in Japan is expected to remain unstable for the next six months, which will hinder the swift implementation of reforms.

Conclusion

The Kato Revolt exposed the deep fractures within the LDP and the lack of unity among its members. While the Mori Cabinet managed to survive the immediate crisis, the underlying instability and declining public support suggest that the party faces significant challenges in the upcoming upper house election. The lack of a clear successor to Mori further complicates the political landscape, and the potential for future cabinet reshuffles or leadership changes remains high. The broader implications of this political turmoil could affect Japan's governance and reform efforts in the near future.