战略与国际研究中心-Freeman-Report-May-2003_5页_104kb

Freeman Report Summary: Volume 1, Issue 2

Core Content

The FREEMAN REPORT, Volume 1, Issue 2, focuses on the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in China and its global implications, particularly for Taiwan and the international community. It also highlights recent activities of the Freeman Chair in China Studies, including publications, media appearances, and events, as well as economic data and a trivia question related to the NBA in China.

Main Points and Key Information

SARS and Its Impact

• SARS is described as a long-term, complex, and relapsing epidemic.
• It has had a greater impact on China's public health system than HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and hepatitis combined, galvanizing top leadership and mobilizing the entire government to prioritize infectious disease prevention.
• Over one million Chinese are estimated to have HIV/AIDS, and 200 million have hepatitis B or C, contributing to the high prevalence of infectious diseases in China.
• China's public health system lacks political commitment and capacity to combat emerging diseases, as highlighted by the World Health Organization.
• SARS has spread to rural areas where healthcare infrastructure is weak, increasing the risk of co-infections and higher mortality rates.

Government Response

• The firing of Minister of Health Zhang Wenkang and Beijing Mayor Meng Xuenong was a pivotal moment, leading to full cooperation from provincial authorities.
• Daily health reports from all 31 provinces were initiated after the sackings, improving transparency.
• The decision to cancel the May Day holiday was intended to reduce SARS spread, but it may have accelerated the movement of infected individuals across the country, especially via public transportation.
• Chinese trains are identified as a potential vector for SARS spread, due to poor sanitation and improper waste disposal.

Impact on Taiwan

• Taiwan's population of 3 million visitors and 1 million residents in China is at risk due to the human movement caused by SARS.
• Taiwan has taken more proactive measures, such as screening passengers at airports and ferries, quarantining individuals with high fevers, and actively tracing contacts of infected persons.
• These efforts are expected to minimize the spread of SARS within Taiwan, contrasting with China and Hong Kong's lack of preparedness.

Economic Implications

• SARS has adversely affected the regional economy, especially the service and tourism sectors, and electronic and textile manufacturing.
• Reduction in air traffic has led to increased shipping costs and reduced cargo space, which could impact international supply chains.
• International experts have raised concerns about the lack of cooperation from Chinese officials in reporting and managing the outbreak.

Recent Publications and Media Appearances

• Bates Gill and Andrew Thompson have written several articles analyzing the impact of SARS on China and the world, including:
  • "Why China's Health Matters to the World" (South China Morning Post, April 16)
  • "China Will Pay Dearly for the SARS Debacle" (International Herald Tribune, April 22)
  • "China: Richer, But Not Healthier" (Far Eastern Economic Review, May 1)
• Bates Gill appeared on the Diane Rehm show (April 22) and testified before the Congressional-Executive Commission on China (May 12), discussing the implications of SARS.

Conferences and Events

• The Freeman Chair has hosted several events, including:
  • A roundtable on China's Emergence in Central Asia (April 22), focusing on energy and trade.
  • A seminar on Russian perceptions of China (April 29), featuring Dr. Alexander Lukin.
• Upcoming events include:
  • A conference on China's Strategic Future (May 21), examining political transition, socioeconomic challenges, and U.S.-China relations.
  • A final roundtable on China's Emergence in Central Asia (June 5), focusing on Xinjiang's role.

Freeman Factsheet: Economic Data for China

• 2002 economic growth rate: 8%
• Projected 2003 growth rate (due to SARS): 7%
• Real urban disposable income increase: 13.4%
• Real rural net income increase: 4.8%
• Official unemployment rate in 2002: 4.5%
• Outside experts' unemployment estimates:
  • 10% in urban areas
  • Over 20% in rural areas
• Big Mac prices:
  • China: $1.27
  • United States: $2.49
• Automobile production increase in 2002: 55%

Trivia Question and Answer

• Question: Owing to the rise of Yao Ming, on average how many viewers in China now tune in to watch NBA basketball, both live and taped for later broadcast?
• Answer: 21 million Chinese viewers, with 7 million watching live and 14 million watching taped rebroadcasts, representing a 300% increase from the previous year.

Conclusion

The SARS outbreak has exposed critical weaknesses in China's public health system, prompting a national response and highlighting the importance of China's health to the global community. The Freeman Chair in China Studies continues to analyze and report on these developments, providing insight into China's strategic and health-related challenges.