1999年-世界发展银行全球_Global_Development_Finance_Projects_Slow_Growth_for_1999_4页_437kb

1999 Global Development Finance Summary

Core Content

The Global Development Finance 1999 report highlights a slowing global economic growth and adverse conditions for developing countries in 1999. It outlines the challenges faced by these economies, including reduced capital flows, worsening terms of trade, and a decline in world trade. Despite some positive developments, the outlook remains cautious.

Main Points

Global Economic Growth

• World GDP growth is forecast to slow to 1.8% in 1999, down from 1.9% in 1998.
• Developing countries' growth is expected to fall to 1.5% in 1999, the lowest since 1982.
• Growth is projected to rebound to 3–4% in 2000, still below pre-crisis levels.

Capital Flows to Developing Countries

• Private capital flows have declined significantly since 1997 due to financial crises in emerging markets.
• Net long-term flows (excluding FDI) dropped from $136 billion in 1997 to $72 billion in 1998, the lowest since 1992.
• FDI remains more resilient, decreasing slightly to $155 billion in 1998.
• Private capital flows in 1999 are expected to increase somewhat, but remain below pre-crisis levels.

Terms of Trade

• Dollar export prices for developing countries fell 11% in 1998, with both primary commodities and manufactured goods affected.
• Commodity prices dropped 16% in 1998, the second largest annual decline in 40 years.
• Commodity prices are expected to fall another 6% in 1999, with real prices near their lowest since 1960.
• Manufactured export prices also declined, particularly from Asian newly industrialized economies to the U.S..
• Terms of trade are expected to decline another 1% in 1999, following a 5–6% drop in 1998.
• Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa were the worst hit by the terms of trade decline.

World Trade

• World trade volume grew only 4–5% in 1998, the slowest since 1992.
• Developing country exports fell 7–8% in 1998, due to weakening volume and falling prices.
• Export growth in 1999 is expected to be below 5%, while LIBOR is projected at 5%.
• Developing countries' external debt-to-exports ratio is expected to rise, reversing the trend of decline since 1993.

Regional Outlook

East Asia

• Growth is expected to reach 4% in 1999, the highest among developing regions.
• China's growth is expected to slow, but still support the region's overall performance.
• Indonesia faces political uncertainties, which may affect its growth outlook.

Latin America and the Caribbean

• Growth is likely to turn negative in 1999.
• Brazil's fiscal and monetary adjustments are expected to stabilize the region, though inflation could reach 10–20%.
• Spillover effects from Brazil's crisis may affect Mercosur countries.

Europe and Central Asia

• Growth varies widely between strong and weak reformers.
• Russia continues to contract sharply since August 1998.
• Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries are affected by declines in export demand and remittances.
• Hungary and Poland (strong reformers) are expected to slow modestly in 1999 due to decelerating import demand from Western Europe.

Sub-Saharan Africa

• Growth declined in 1998 due to commodity price drops, adverse weather, and civil strife.
• Reforming countries achieved positive growth in 1998.
• 1999 growth is expected to improve slightly, with better weather and currency stabilization in South Africa helping.
• Nigeria has seen improved long-term prospects due to democratic reforms.

Middle East and North Africa

• Growth is expected to fall to near zero in 1999 due to low oil prices.
• Diversified economies (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia) may perform better, though affected by slower European growth and increased competition from Eastern Europe and Asia.

South Asia

• Growth is forecast at 4–5% in 1999–2000, better than other regions, but too slow to alleviate widespread poverty.
• India's growth is hampered by high public deficits, trade policies, and infrastructure bottlenecks.
• Pakistan faced a severe balance of payments crisis in 1998, with prolonged recovery expected.

Risks to the Forecast

• Further contraction in Japan's economy due to policy implementation issues and declining consumer confidence.
• U.S. and European stock market corrections could hurt growth in those regions.
• Protracted withdrawal of external financing from Latin America and other developing regions could lead to worsening balance of payments and output.
• Protectionist sentiment in the U.S. and Europe could revive if economic activity contracts.

Key Data

Conclusion

The Global Development Finance 1999 report underscores a challenging economic environment for developing countries in 1999, marked by slower growth, reduced capital inflows, and worsening trade conditions. While some regions show signs of recovery, others face significant risks, and the overall outlook remains cautious.