2008年-世界发展银行全球_Debt_Management_Performance_Assessment___Republic_of_Moldova_32页_1mb

Summary of Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) for the Republic of Moldova

Core Content

The Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) is a comprehensive tool used by the World Bank to evaluate the effectiveness of a country's public debt management framework. This report outlines the findings of the DeMPA mission conducted in April 2008 in the Republic of Moldova, highlighting both strengths and areas for improvement in the country's debt management practices.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Overview of the DeMPA Mission

• A World Bank team conducted a DeMPA mission from April 7 to April 11, 2008, in Chisinau, Moldova.
• The mission assessed debt management operations using 15 Debt Performance Indicators (DPIs).
• The assessment overlapped with the PEFA team and involved consultations with officials from the Ministry of Finance (MF), National Bank of Moldova (NBM), Court of Accounts, Credit Line Directorate, donors, and primary dealers.
• The report incorporated comments from the Ministry of Finance and was approved for publication.

2. Performance Indicators and Scores

3. Legal Framework (DPI-1)

• In December 2006, the Republic of Moldova adopted the Law on Public Debt and State Guarantees and on-lending from State Borrowings.
• The law defines the roles and responsibilities of institutions involved in debt management.
• It establishes the Annual Program of State Loans as the debt management strategy.
• The law requires the Ministry of Finance (MF) to report annually to the government and parliament on the execution of the state budget and public debt status.
• It also mandates external performance audits by the Court of Accounts.
• The legal framework meets the minimum requirements for a B score but does not fully satisfy the criteria for an A score, as it lacks detailed debt management objectives and mandatory reporting to parliament.

4. Managerial Structure (DPI-2)

• The Debt Office (DO) is the central entity responsible for executing the debt management strategy.
• The DO is part of the Ministry of Finance and has five divisions: External Financing and Debt, Internal Debt, On-lending, Analysis, Risk and Strategy (ARS), and External Cooperation.
• The NBM collaborates with the MF through institutional committees, including the Liquidity Management Committee and the Auction Commission.
• The managerial structure received an A score, indicating strong institutional arrangements.

5. Debt Management Strategy (DPI-3)

• Moldova has a three-year Debt Management Strategy (DMS) covering over 90% of total central government debt.
• The strategy includes objectives such as maintaining debt below a nominal threshold, utilizing loans with a grant element of at least 35%, and managing net debt repayments to the NBM.
• The DMS is approved by the Minister of Finance and published as part of the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF).
• The strategy is not a standalone document and lacks detailed currency risk analysis and measures to support domestic debt market development.
• The score is D+, indicating that the strategy requires significant improvement.

6. Coordination with Fiscal and Monetary Policies

• Coordination with Fiscal Policy (DPI-6): Moldova meets the minimum requirements for a C score, suggesting room for improvement in aligning debt management with fiscal policy.
• Coordination with Monetary Policy (DPI-7): The country received an A score, indicating strong coordination with monetary policy, particularly through the collaboration with the NBM.

7. Borrowing Activities

• Domestic Borrowing (DPI-8): Moldova received an A score, showing effective domestic borrowing practices.
• External Borrowing (DPI-9): The score is C, indicating that external borrowing practices meet minimum requirements but have room for enhancement.
• Loan Guarantees, On-lending and Debt-related Transactions (DPI-10): Score is C, indicating that these activities are in line with minimum standards.

8. Cash Flow Forecasting and Management

• Cash Flow Forecasting and Cash Balance Management (DPI-11): Score is C+, indicating that the country is on track to meet higher standards in this area.

9. Operational Risk Management

• Debt Administration and Data Security (DPI-12): Score is D+, suggesting that while basic requirements are met, there are gaps in data security and administration.
• Segregation of Duties, Staff Capacity and Business Continuity (DPI-13): Score is D, indicating that these aspects require significant improvement.

10. Debt Records and Reporting

• Debt Records (DPI-14): Score is A, indicating that the records are well-maintained.
• Debt Reporting (DPI-15): Score is B, suggesting that reporting practices are sound but not fully comprehensive.

11. Technical Assistance and Capacity Building

• The Debt Office (DO) has received SIDA technical assistance, which included:
  • Advice on debt restructuring.
  • Capacity building in debt sustainability analysis and risk assessment.
  • Updating the legal framework and internal regulations.
  • Training on system applications and Debt Sustainability Analysis.
• Despite this, high staff turnover has led to scattered institutional knowledge, and the Minister of Finance suggested the need for more structured training in areas such as cost benefit analysis, financial markets, and debt strategy.

12. Current Debt Situation

• As of end-2006, Moldova's total public debt was 34% of GDP, with external debt at 26% of GDP.
• Most external debt is concessional, with a grant element of 40% in 2008/09, expected to decline over time.
• Public domestic debt remains around 25% of total public debt, mainly held by the NBM.
• The NBM is responsible for T-bill auctions, and the DO manages the external debt database and payment invoices.
• The MTEF includes domestic borrowing plans and objectives, including securitized debt over a three-year horizon.

13. Recommendations and Future Outlook

• The mission identified several areas for improvement, including:
  • Quality of the debt management strategy.
  • Audit processes.
  • Operational risk management.
• As Moldova approaches the IDA-IBRD blend country status, it will need to examine non-concessional borrowing opportunities.
• The country's debt sustainability outlook is favorable, with low risk of debt distress, due to strong GDP growth and macroeconomic stability.
• Absorptive capacity is likely to be a more binding constraint than debt sustainability in the future.