> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) Summary ## Core Content Overview Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) reported strong financial results for FY25, with revenue increasing by **22.5% YoY to RMB 52.6bn**, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus by **4%**, and net profit rising by **30.9% YoY to RMB 15.9bn**, beating the consensus by **6%**. The company's performance was driven by recovery in the water business, stronger-than-expected growth in the tea and juice segments, and a significant decline in SG&A expenses following the Olympic year. Despite these results, Nongfu Spring has not provided guidance for FY26 gross margin or net profit due to uncertainty in the market. The company retained its **double-digit revenue growth target for FY26**, with a forecasted **3-year forward CAGR of 11%** for revenue and earnings. The target price (TP) was raised to **HK$60.88**, up **5%**, based on a valuation base shifted to 2026E and a reduction in the P/E multiple to **32x**, reflecting concerns over intensified competition and potential cost pressures from raw material price volatility. ## Main Business Performance ### Tea Business - **FY25 Revenue**: RMB 21.6bn (+29% YoY), with **2H25 growth at 38%** compared to **1H25 at 20%**. - **Operating Margin**: Increased by **2.9ppt to 48.0%**, but declined by **0.6ppt in 2H25** compared to 1H25, indicating ongoing competitive pressures. ### Water Business - **FY25 Revenue**: RMB 18.7bn (+17% YoY), with **2H25 growth at 25%**, faster than 1H25's **11%**. - **Operating Margin**: Rose by **6.3ppt to 37.4%**, with **2H25 margin at 39.4%**, up **4ppt from 1H25's 35.4%**, showing further recovery. ### Juice Business - **FY25 Revenue**: RMB 5.2bn (+27% YoY), with **2H25 growth accelerating to 33%** from **21% in 1H25**. - **Operating Margin**: Increased by **9.4ppt to 34.3%**, with **2H25 margin at 37.3%**, up from **1H25's 31.3%**. - **Growth Drivers**: Rising consumer health awareness and the scale effect of the juice segment. ## Financial Highlights (FY25) | Metric | FY25 (RMB mn) | YoY Growth (%) | |----------------------|--------------|----------------| | Revenue | 52,553 | 22.5 | | Net Profit | 15,868 | 30.9 | | EPS (Reported) | 1.41 | - | | Consensus EPS | na | - | | P/E (x) | 28.9 | - | | P/B (x) | 11.6 | - | | Yield (%) | 2.4 | - | | ROE (%) | 44.2 | - | | Net Gearing (%) | -17.2 | - | ## Financial Forecasts (2026–2028E) | Year | Revenue (RMB mn) | YoY Growth (%) | Net Profit (RMB mn) | YoY Growth (%) | EPS (RMB) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | Yield (%) | ROE (%) | Net Gearing (%) | |------|------------------|----------------|---------------------|----------------|----------|--------|--------|-----------|--------|----------------| | 2026 | 58,585 | 11.5 | 17,641 | 11.2 | 1.57 | 26.0 | 10.0 | 2.7 | 41.3 | -23.1 | | 2027 | 64,534 | 10.2 | 19,491 | 10.5 | 1.73 | 23.6 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 39.4 | -28.4 | | 2028 | 71,029 | 10.1 | 21,548 | 10.6 | 1.92 | 21.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 37.8 | -34.0 | ## Earnings Revision | Metric | New (2026E) | Old (2026E) | Diff (%) | |----------------------|------------|------------|----------| | Revenue | 58,585 | 55,106 | 6.3 | | Gross Profit | 35,530 | 32,547 | 9.2 | | EBIT | 22,662 | 19,640 | 15.4 | | Net Profit | 17,641 | 15,458 | 14.1 | | Gross Margin | 60.6% | 59.1% | 1.6ppt | | EBIT Margin | 38.7% | 35.6% | 3.1ppt | | Net Margin | 30.1% | 28.1% | 2.0ppt | ## Valuation Comparison | Company | Ticker | Last Price (HK$) | Mkt Cap (HK$ mn) | P/E (26E) | P/E (27E) | Rev. Growth (%) | NP Growth (%) | GPM (%) | NPM (%) | Payout Ratio | Div Yield (%) | PEG | |---------------------|------------|------------------|------------------|----------|----------|-----------------|--------------|--------|--------|------------|--------------|-----------|----| | Nongfu Spring | 9633.HK | 46.42 | 66,737 | 26.0x | 23.6x | 11.5 | 10.2 | 60.6 | 30.1 | 72% | 2.7% | 2.3 | | Eastroc Beverage | 605499.SH | 228.90 | 18,629 | 22.6x | 18.6x | 32.5 | 24.3 | 44.1 | 21.0 | 78% | 2.2% | 0.9 | | Tingyi | 0322.HK | 13.11 | 9,446 | 13.5x | 12.0x | 2.3 | 2.2 | 33.2 | 6.5 | 103% | 6.9% | 1.8 | | Want Want China | 0151.HK | 4.60 | 6,941 | 10.9x | 10.1x | 3.1 | 3.0 | 47.6 | 18.4 | 40% | 5.7% | 1.4 | | Cr Beverage | 2460.HK | 9.08 | 2,784 | 14.8x | 12.9x | -17.2 | 8.4 | 47.3 | 12.3 | 62% | 5.8% | 0.7 | | U-Presid China | 0220.HK | 7.89 | 4,357 | 12.3x | 11.7x | 5.3 | 4.5 | 33.2 | 6.5 | 103% | 6.8% | 1.7 | | Yangyuan | 603156.SH | 29.61 | 5,415 | 25.4x | 23.5x | -12.8 | 7.5 | 46.0 | 28.7 | 100% | 4.6% | 2.3 | | **Average** | - | - | - | 22.6x | 20.2x | 17.8 | 11.8 | 52.7 | 24.5 | 76% | 3.0% | 1.7 | ## Share Performance | Period | Absolute Return (%) | Relative Return (%) | |---------------|---------------------|---------------------| | 1-month | -2.3 | 3.2 | | 3-months | -4.5 | -2.7 | | 6-months | -10.9 | -6.9 | ## Shareholding Structure | Shareholder | % Ownership | |----------------|-------------| | Zhong Shanshan | 38.3% | | Yangshengtang Co. | 25.9% | ## Analyst View - **Rating**: Maintain **BUY**. - **Target Price**: Raised to **HK$60.88** (up 5%). - **Reasons**: - Valuation base rolled forward to 2026E. - Target P/E multiple cut by **20% to 32x** due to concerns over competition and cost pressures. - Positive results may have been fully priced in. - Weak sector sentiment could impact share performance in FY26. - Nongfu Spring remains the industry leader and one of the few investable names, potentially attracting liquidity concentration. ## Analyst Certification The analyst certifies that: 1. All views expressed accurately reflect personal opinions. 2. No compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific views in the report. 3. No trading in the stock within 30 days prior to the report. 4. No intention to trade within 3 business days after the report. 5. No financial interest in the company or its affiliates. ## CMB International Global Markets Limited - **Address**: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong. - **Contact**: Tel: (852) 3900 0888, Fax: (852) 3900 0800. - **Note**: CMBIGM is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International.