20260326-招银国际-农夫山泉-09633.HK-FY25_Strong_tea_juice_biz_facing_challenges_to_maintain_high_growth_6页_750kb

报告摘要

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) Summary

Core Content Overview

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) reported strong financial results for FY25, with revenue increasing by 22.5% YoY to RMB 52.6bn, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus by 4%, and net profit rising by 30.9% YoY to RMB 15.9bn, beating the consensus by 6%. The company's performance was driven by recovery in the water business, stronger-than-expected growth in the tea and juice segments, and a significant decline in SG&A expenses following the Olympic year. Despite these results, Nongfu Spring has not provided guidance for FY26 gross margin or net profit due to uncertainty in the market.

The company retained its double-digit revenue growth target for FY26, with a forecasted 3-year forward CAGR of 11% for revenue and earnings. The target price (TP) was raised to HK$60.88, up 5%, based on a valuation base shifted to 2026E and a reduction in the P/E multiple to 32x, reflecting concerns over intensified competition and potential cost pressures from raw material price volatility.

Main Business Performance

Tea Business

FY25 Revenue: RMB 21.6bn (+29% YoY), with 2H25 growth at 38% compared to 1H25 at 20%.
Operating Margin: Increased by 2.9ppt to 48.0%, but declined by 0.6ppt in 2H25 compared to 1H25, indicating ongoing competitive pressures.

Water Business

FY25 Revenue: RMB 18.7bn (+17% YoY), with 2H25 growth at 25%, faster than 1H25's 11%.
Operating Margin: Rose by 6.3ppt to 37.4%, with 2H25 margin at 39.4%, up 4ppt from 1H25's 35.4%, showing further recovery.

Juice Business

FY25 Revenue: RMB 5.2bn (+27% YoY), with 2H25 growth accelerating to 33% from 21% in 1H25.
Operating Margin: Increased by 9.4ppt to 34.3%, with 2H25 margin at 37.3%, up from 1H25's 31.3%.
Growth Drivers: Rising consumer health awareness and the scale effect of the juice segment.

Financial Highlights (FY25)

Metric	FY25 (RMB mn)	YoY Growth (%)
Revenue	52,553	22.5
Net Profit	15,868	30.9
EPS (Reported)	1.41	-
Consensus EPS	na	-
P/E (x)	28.9	-
P/B (x)	11.6	-
Yield (%)	2.4	-
ROE (%)	44.2	-
Net Gearing (%)	-17.2	-

Financial Forecasts (2026–2028E)

Year	Revenue (RMB mn)	YoY Growth (%)	Net Profit (RMB mn)	YoY Growth (%)	EPS (RMB)	P/E (x)	P/B (x)	Yield (%)	ROE (%)	Net Gearing (%)
2026	58,585	11.5	17,641	11.2	1.57	26.0	10.0	2.7	41.3	-23.1
2027	64,534	10.2	19,491	10.5	1.73	23.6	8.7	3.0	39.4	-28.4
2028	71,029	10.1	21,548	10.6	1.92	21.3	7.5	3.3	37.8	-34.0

Earnings Revision

Metric	New (2026E)	Old (2026E)	Diff (%)
Revenue	58,585	55,106	6.3
Gross Profit	35,530	32,547	9.2
EBIT	22,662	19,640	15.4
Net Profit	17,641	15,458	14.1
Gross Margin	60.6%	59.1%	1.6ppt
EBIT Margin	38.7%	35.6%	3.1ppt
Net Margin	30.1%	28.1%	2.0ppt

Valuation Comparison

| Company | Ticker | Last Price (HK$) | Mkt Cap (HK$ mn) | P/E (26E) | P/E (27E) | Rev. Growth (%) | NP Growth (%) | GPM (%) | NPM (%) | Payout Ratio | Div Yield (%) | PEG |
|---------------------|------------|------------------|------------------|----------|----------|-----------------|--------------|--------|--------|------------|--------------|-----------|----|
| Nongfu Spring | 9633.HK | 46.42 | 66,737 | 26.0x | 23.6x | 11.5 | 10.2 | 60.6 | 30.1 | 72% | 2.7% | 2.3 |
| Eastroc Beverage | 605499.SH | 228.90 | 18,629 | 22.6x | 18.6x | 32.5 | 24.3 | 44.1 | 21.0 | 78% | 2.2% | 0.9 |
| Tingyi | 0322.HK | 13.11 | 9,446 | 13.5x | 12.0x | 2.3 | 2.2 | 33.2 | 6.5 | 103% | 6.9% | 1.8 |
| Want Want China | 0151.HK | 4.60 | 6,941 | 10.9x | 10.1x | 3.1 | 3.0 | 47.6 | 18.4 | 40% | 5.7% | 1.4 |
| Cr Beverage | 2460.HK | 9.08 | 2,784 | 14.8x | 12.9x | -17.2 | 8.4 | 47.3 | 12.3 | 62% | 5.8% | 0.7 |
| U-Presid China | 0220.HK | 7.89 | 4,357 | 12.3x | 11.7x | 5.3 | 4.5 | 33.2 | 6.5 | 103% | 6.8% | 1.7 |
| Yangyuan | 603156.SH | 29.61 | 5,415 | 25.4x | 23.5x | -12.8 | 7.5 | 46.0 | 28.7 | 100% | 4.6% | 2.3 |
| Average | - | - | - | 22.6x | 20.2x | 17.8 | 11.8 | 52.7 | 24.5 | 76% | 3.0% | 1.7 |

Share Performance

Period	Absolute Return (%)	Relative Return (%)
1-month	-2.3	3.2
3-months	-4.5	-2.7
6-months	-10.9	-6.9

Shareholding Structure

Shareholder	% Ownership
Zhong Shanshan	38.3%
Yangshengtang Co.	25.9%

Analyst View

Rating: Maintain BUY.
Target Price: Raised to HK$60.88 (up 5%).
Reasons:
- Valuation base rolled forward to 2026E.
- Target P/E multiple cut by 20% to 32x due to concerns over competition and cost pressures.
- Positive results may have been fully priced in.
- Weak sector sentiment could impact share performance in FY26.
- Nongfu Spring remains the industry leader and one of the few investable names, potentially attracting liquidity concentration.

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that:

All views expressed accurately reflect personal opinions.
No compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific views in the report.
No trading in the stock within 30 days prior to the report.
No intention to trade within 3 business days after the report.
No financial interest in the company or its affiliates.