2018年-世界发展银行全球_Managed_Labor_Migration_in_Afghanistan___Demographic_Profile_Short-Term_Projections_and_Supply_of_Migration_in_Afghanistan_32页_2mb

Summary of "Managed Labor Migration in Afghanistan: Demographic Profile, Short-term Projections, and Supply of Migration"

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of labor migration in Afghanistan from a demographic and economic perspective, focusing on the country's labor supply and demand dynamics, migration pressures, and the potential role of managed labor mobility in contributing to economic development.

Main Findings

• Demographic Pressure: Afghanistan has one of the youngest populations in Asia, with around 400,000 young Afghans entering the labor force annually. The population is projected to grow from 28 million in 2010 to 56 million in 2050, leading to a significant increase in the labor force.
• Labor Force Growth: The labor force has grown rapidly over the past decades, with an annual increase of 400,000 in 2015. This growth is expected to continue, albeit at a slower rate, from 4% to 2.6% by 2030.
• Labor Demand Projections: Economic growth has historically been labor-intensive, but the elasticity of employment to GDP growth is less than one, meaning that economic growth does not translate fully into job creation. GDP growth is projected to increase slowly, from 1.5% in 2015 to 5% in 2030, which will not be sufficient to absorb the growing labor supply.
• Migration Pressures: Due to the mismatch between labor supply and demand, net emigration is expected to be substantial, averaging around 200,000 people per year from 2016 to 2030.
• Profile of Migrants: The projected profile of future migrants includes young men with some education and from middle-income households. Women's participation in the labor market remains low, but could increase, adding further pressure.
• Economic Factors: Economic activity has been influenced by aid and security improvements, but these are not sustainable. The country remains reliant on external support, and without it, economic growth is likely to stagnate.
• Non-Economic Factors: Increased insecurity, conflict, and natural disasters may further exacerbate migration pressures. Urbanization is also expected to play a role in shaping migration patterns.

Key Projections

Labor Supply Projections

• Population Growth: From 28 million in 2010 to 56 million in 2050.
• Annual Labor Force Growth: 400,000 per year in 2015, expected to remain stable in the next 15 years.
• Demographic Trends: The working-age population is growing faster than the total population due to the lag between fertility decline and its impact on the labor market.
• Dependency Ratio: Expected to improve from 1:1 in 2015 to 1.25:1 in 2020 and 1.5:1 in 2050.

Labor Demand Projections

• GDP Growth: Projected to increase from 1.5% in 2015 to 5% in 2030.
• Employment Elasticity: During the 2003-2012 boom period, elasticity was 0.47; during 2010-2014, it increased to 0.69.
• Job Creation: Even with the most optimistic growth scenarios, job creation is expected to lag behind labor supply growth, leading to significant migration pressures.

Migration Scenarios

Scenario 1.1: Low Elasticity

• Employment Intensity: Based on historical elasticity of 0.47.
• Labor Demand Growth: Expected to increase from 1% to 3.5% annually, still not matching labor supply until 2027.
• Net Migration: Projected to remain below 2.4% in 2030, insufficient to absorb the labor supply.

Scenario 1.2: High Elasticity

• Employment Intensity: Based on historical elasticity of 0.69.
• Labor Demand Growth: Expected to increase from 1% to 3.5% annually, but still insufficient to meet labor supply needs until 2027.
• Net Migration: Likely to remain around 200,000 people per year, as economic conditions do not provide enough employment opportunities.

Additional Migration Pressures

• Insecurity and Conflict: Increased conflict and insecurity are expected to drive further migration, especially from rural to urban areas.
• Natural Disasters: The frequency of natural disasters has increased, adding to migration pressures.
• Urbanization: The trend of urbanization is expected to increase, potentially leading to more internal migration and a larger labor force in cities.

Conclusion

• Afghanistan's labor market is expected to face significant pressure due to rapid population growth and slow economic development.
• Managed labor migration is identified as a potential tool for economic development, especially if the country can create enough employment opportunities.
• Migration will likely be dominated by young men from middle-income households, and the role of women in the labor market could increase, adding more pressure.
• The projections highlight the need for policies that facilitate the entry of youth into the labor market and promote sustainable economic growth.