2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_South_Africa_Selected_Issues_54页_1mb

Summary of the Selected Issues Paper on South Africa (2018)

Core Content

This paper analyzes the factors behind the doubling of public debt in South Africa between 2007 and 2017, assesses the role of fiscal policy in addressing inequality, and evaluates the resilience of the South African economy in the face of vulnerabilities and buffers.

Main Points

A. Public Debt Accumulation

• Debt Doubling: Public debt increased by about 4 percentage points of GDP over the last decade, driven by a countercyclical fiscal policy.
• Main Drivers: The wage bill accounted for 64% of the expenditure increase, followed by the interest bill (23%) and social benefits (13%).
• Debt Impact on Growth: While the fiscal stimulus helped mitigate the impact of the global financial crisis, it had limited permanent effects on growth. Productive investments in capital and network industries could have led to higher growth.

B. General Government Debt

• General Government Debt: Increased from 29.3% of GDP in 2007 to 55.7% in 2017, with the majority of the increase attributed to non-financial SOEs.
• Local Government Role: Local governments have small surpluses or deficits, and are not allowed to borrow. Revenue increases from local government have helped reduce the general government deficit.
• SOE Borrowing: SOEs increasingly rely on loans rather than market bond issues. Government guarantees are a significant part of SOE debt, especially for Eskom and independent power producers.

C. Spending Levels and Composition

• Expenditure Growth: Total government spending increased by about 5.5 percentage points of GDP between 2007 and 2016, higher than in SADC, EM, and OECD countries.
• Wage Bill: South Africa’s wage bill is higher than EM and SADC averages, driven by high compensation levels and lower public employment of working-age population.
• Infrastructure Quality: South Africa’s infrastructure is generally lower than OECD standards, especially in ports and railroads, but better than SADC and EM countries in air transport and roads.
• Education and Health Spending: South Africa spends more on education and health than SADC and EM countries, but outcomes are weak compared to these regions, indicating inefficiencies.
• Social Assistance: Social assistance spending is higher than in OECD, EM, and SADC countries, with broad coverage and relatively good targeting. However, inefficiencies in the distribution of grants may reduce the effectiveness of the program.

D. Fiscal Policy and Inequality

• Inequality Trends: South Africa remains highly unequal, with a Gini coefficient above the EM and SADC averages. Poverty is also persistent, with a significant portion of the population living below the poverty line.
• Fiscal Policy Impact: Fiscal policy has played a role in reducing inequality through social grants and public spending. However, the efficiency of these programs is crucial.
• Tertiary Education: Spending on tertiary education has been reallocated to support more students, but it tends to benefit the better-off due to its regressive nature.
• Recommendations: There is a need for more efficient and targeted spending, especially in education and health, and for structural reforms to improve productivity and reduce inequality.

Key Information

• Fiscal Deficit: The main driver of debt growth was the fiscal deficit, which accounted for 76% of the numerator change in the debt ratio.
• Contingent Liabilities: SOE loan guarantees and the Road Accident Fund are significant sources of contingent liabilities, growing from 2.9% to 9% of GDP.
• Debt Sustainability: Favorable global financing conditions have mitigated risks, but increasing borrowing costs and limited market appetite for SOE bonds are concerns.
• Efficiency Concerns: Expenditure in education and health is inefficient, with poor outcomes relative to spending levels in other EMs and SADC countries.
• Social Grants: Social assistance benefits have been effective in targeting the poor but require improved distribution mechanisms to enhance impact.
• Energy Subsidies: Energy subsidies are high, estimated at 13% of GDP, with a significant portion coming from fuel VAT exemptions and externalities.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while public debt accumulation has helped stabilize the economy during the global financial crisis, it has not led to significant growth or reduced inequality. A shift toward more productive spending and structural reforms is necessary to improve economic performance and ensure fiscal sustainability. The role of SOEs and their contingent liabilities remains a critical concern, and reforms in these areas are essential to reduce fiscal risks. Efficient use of public resources in social protection and education is also vital to address inequality and support long-term growth.