> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** February 12, 2026 # Morning Insight: February 12, 2026 Linlin Gao Certification: Z0002332 gaolinlin@ghtt.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact) Certification: F03133175 wuyuchen@ghtt.com # Main Body # Commodity Market Insight: Nickel: Renewed headlines from Indonesia have stirred the market again, with real developments on the ore supply side following through. Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), disclosed that the approved nickel ore production quota stands at 260 - 270 million tonnes. Against the backdrop of fading speculative sentiment ahead of the holiday, the Indonesian government's renewed comments on quota approvals and budget progress have drawn some speculative funds back into the market, pushing nickel prices higher. Open interest and capital in the SHFE nickel market increased from RMB 6 billion in December - January to RMB 14 billion, retreated to RMB 11 billion at the February low, and rebounded to RMB 12.5 billion on the morning of February 11. From a fundamental perspective, under our previous assumption of a 250 million tonne quota with full utilization, we estimated a static supply-demand balance implying a destocking of 140,000 metal tonnes (excluding supply recovery outside Indonesia). At 260 - 270 million tonnes, the market would likely remain in tight balance. Although this is slightly less bullish than earlier strong expectations, the Indonesian government's public clarification may weaken doubts about policy execution and remains supportive for prices. Notably, during the first wave of speculative buying in December - January, there was little actual improvement at the ore end. This time, however, physical tightness has followed: constrained by quota and approval system issues, short-term ore supply has tightened. In February, both premiums and benchmark prices for Indonesian nickel ore rose, with $1.6\%$ grade ore increasing by nearly USD 7 from end-January to around USD 61 per tonne. With hydromet supply yet to materialize, the cost curve in the near term remains anchored to pyrometallurgical production, and higher ore prices could lift cost expectations for pyromet nickel by more than RMB 5,000 per tonne. As such, the combination of tightening spot conditions and policy-driven expectations of a supply-demand shift suggests further upside risk for nickel prices. In the short term, attention should focus on the evolution of Indonesian policy, as well as speculative ore-side factors related to the Philippine rainy season and Indonesia's Ramadan period. Over the medium term, key variables include the possibility of additional temporary quota increases in Indonesia and incremental supply growth outside Indonesia. Chart 1: Market Snapshot <table><tr><td colspan="3">Market Snapshot</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 300 Index Futures</td><td>4728.2</td><td>-0.17%</td></tr><tr><td>SSE 50 Index Futures</td><td>3092.8</td><td>0.12%</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 500 Index Futures</td><td>8309.0</td><td>0.34%</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 1000 Index Futures</td><td>8254.6</td><td>-0.02%</td></tr><tr><td>30Y T-bond Futures</td><td>112.7</td><td>0.05%</td></tr><tr><td>10Y T-bond Futures</td><td>108.5</td><td>0.06%</td></tr><tr><td>5Y T-bond Futures</td><td>106.0</td><td>0.05%</td></tr><tr><td>2Y T-bond Futures</td><td>102.5</td><td>-0.00%</td></tr></table> Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research # Open Interest Chart 2: Open Interest of IF Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 3: Open Interest of IH Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 4: Open Interest of IC Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 5: Open Interest of IM Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research # News Highlights: 1. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) directly administered by the Chinese central government have formed an embodied intelligence industry consortium in an effort to accelerate the development of artificial intelligence (AI). Under the guidance of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) of the State Council, the consortium brings together central SOEs alongside private companies, universities and research institutes. It will focus on five priority areas: strategic high-value application scenarios, high-quality datasets, key and core technologies across the industrial chain, coordinated development within the broader industry ecosystem, and the links between industry and finance to support the real economy. The move comes amid a steady increase in AI investment among China's central SOEs over the last few years. At a recent meeting, the SASAC said that central SOEs should expand effective investment in computing power, bolster independent innovation, accelerate breakthroughs of core technologies in key areas, and transform more innovations from prototypes to commercial products and viable industries. Central SOEs should also deepen their open-source collaboration and accelerate their upgrades to a new AI cooperation platform, the Huanxin Community, with the aim of cultivating a mutually beneficial industry ecosystem, according to the SASAC. The Huanxin Community was launched by the SASAC in July last year and has since seen its user base increase tenfold. It has recently attracted the participation of tech firms such as Huawei, Moore Threads and Unitree Robotics. The open-source platform offers free public access to 2,200 domestically produced intelligent computing cards, and has aggregated more than 4,700 AI models and 1,200 datasets. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China will work to improve the nationwide allocation of electricity and further optimize cross-regional power trading, according to guidelines released recently. The measures aim to basically establish a "unified national power market" by 2030, according to the guidelines issued by the General Office of the State Council. The market is expected to be fully in place by 2035, the guidelines say. The power market will feature smooth and orderly operations, unified and efficient trading rules, and a fair sharing of benefits, according to the guidelines. As part of its efforts to build the market, China will develop spot markets that better reflect prices and balance supply and demand, alongside mid to long-term markets that ensure safe and stable electricity supply. The market will encourage fair and broad participation by all types of market players, while unifying market rules and technical standards, the guidelines say. Efforts will also be made to better align the market with power planning, the guidelines state, noting that emergency management and risk controls will be strengthened. (Source: Xinhua) 3. China's top economic planner, in coordination with other government departments, has unveiled measures to ensure stable supply and prices of daily necessities and assistance to people in need ahead of the Spring Festival. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said Wednesday that efforts will be made to ensure sufficient supply by strengthening agricultural production and streamlining logistics for fresh produce. To stabilize prices, the NDRC said it will ensure the timely release of government vegetable reserves and strengthen market supervision to prevent hoarding and price gouging. Support for low-income groups will be enhanced, including temporary subsidies linked to price increases, according to the commission. The NDRC said that China has a solid foundation for market stability, with sustained grain output and sufficient production of meat, eggs and vegetables. (Source: Xinhua) Chart 6: Upcoming Important Economic Data Calendar <table><tr><td rowspan="2">2026/2/11</td><td>Monthly Report on China's Consumer Price Index (CPI)</td></tr><tr><td>Monthly Report on Producer Price Index in the Industrial Sector</td></tr><tr><td>2026/2/13</td><td>Monthly Report on Sales Price Indexes of Commercial Residential Buildings</td></tr><tr><td>2026/2/28</td><td>Statistical Communeque on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development</td></tr></table> Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting business in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). 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