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2016E Goldman Sachs Global Ecommerce Forecast Summary

Core Content

Goldman Sachs has updated its global ecommerce forecast for 2016 and beyond, highlighting continued growth in the sector despite a slowdown compared to 2015. The report identifies key drivers and regional performance variations, along with investment recommendations and challenges faced by certain retailers.

Main Points

• Global Ecommerce Growth:
  Goldman Sachs forecasts global ecommerce growth of 22% in 2016 (a 3ppt slowdown from 2015), followed by 20% in 2017. The growth is attributed to improvements in the ecommerce ecosystem, including internet access, mobile usage, shipping, and fulfillment, as well as the rise of B2C in China and rapid expansion in developing markets.

• Penetration Increase:
  The report predicts an increase in global ecommerce penetration by 118 basis points (bps) in 2016, with the largest gains expected in China (232bps), India (175bps), and South Korea (137bps).

• Macroeconomic Divergence:
  Regional performance varies due to macroeconomic conditions. Countries like Brazil and Russia face challenges, with Brazil's growth slowing to 7% and Russia's to 10% in 2016. In contrast, India and China are expected to see significant growth, with India at +63% and China at +31%.

• Ecommerce as a Share of Total Retail:
  The global ecommerce share of total retail is expected to grow, with China, India, and South Korea leading the way.

Key Global Themes

1. Retail in Retreat:
   Traditional retailers are closing stores and reducing in-store inventory as consumers shift to online shopping. This trend is accelerating in categories like apparel, grocery, and consumer packaged goods (CPG).

2. Fulfillment as a Competitive Advantage:
   Fulfillment capabilities are becoming a key differentiator for retailers. Companies with efficient logistics networks, such as Amazon, Alibaba, and Ocado, are better positioned to capture market share in high-frequency, fragmented categories.

3. Declining Venture Capital Investment:
   Venture capital investment in ecommerce has declined significantly, from a 20% CAGR (2011-2014) to -8% yoy in 2015 and -58% YTD in 2016. This shift is expected to benefit established online and traditional retailers as start-ups face challenges in scaling and profitability.

Key Investment Ideas

Top Picks (Buy)

• Amazon.com Inc. - Strong infrastructure and logistics investments drive market share gains and cash flow.
• Carter's Inc. - Well-positioned for omnichannel growth with a strong presence in baby apparel and efficient distribution.
• Dollar Tree Stores Inc. - Targets lower-income customers with low-price offerings, offering a strong defense in an omnichannel world.
• Nike Inc. - Rapid growth in online sales and clear financial targets for e-commerce.
• PayPal Holdings - Expected to benefit from increased transaction volume and new product offerings.
• Ralph Lauren Corp. - Plans to bring e-commerce in-house, potentially boosting growth.
• VF Corp. - Seeks to improve e-commerce penetration using its strong brand equity.
• JUST EAT - Strong growth in the UK takeaway market with rising profitability.
• Ocado Group - Superior technology supports online grocery growth.
• Schipsted ASA - Strong presence in high-concentration markets with effective execution.
• Zalando SE - Management's focus on growth and market share may lead to profitability.
• Alibaba Group Holding - Dominates China's retail market with a unique monetization model.
• JD.com Inc. - Benefits from online retail growth and economies of scale.
• Vipshop Holdings - Strong position in China's online discount retail segment with robust earnings.
• Trusco Nakayama Corp. - Expected to increase ecommerce sales share to ~30% by 2020.
• Yahoo Japan - Positioned to benefit from ad monetization of ecommerce traffic.

Sell Ratings

• Abercrombie & Fitch - Struggles with declining mall traffic and online competition.
• Bed Bath & Beyond - Faces margin erosion and challenges in omnichannel expansion.
• Foot Locker - At risk of losing market share due to mall traffic decline and vendor e-commerce growth.
• Genesco - Limited margin expansion potential due to online competition.
• Hibbett Sports - Persistent same-store traffic declines and P&L pressures.
• J.C. Penney Co. - E-commerce business is behind peers, with lower-quality store locations at risk.
• Kohl's Corp. - High in-store margins and low online margins may hinder growth.

Forecast Overview

• Global Ecommerce CAGR (2015-2018): 20% (up 24bps from prior forecast).
• US Ecommerce CAGR (2015-2018): 13.7%.
• India Ecommerce CAGR (2015-2018): 39.3%.
• China B2C Ecommerce CAGR (2015-2018): 35.5%.
• China C2C Ecommerce CAGR (2015-2018): 27.6%.

Methodology and Data Sources

• The forecast combines Euromonitor historical data, Goldman Sachs internal GDP estimates, and regional analyst insights.
• Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2 provide comparisons of ecommerce growth estimates and actuals.
• Exhibit 3 outlines the top investment ideas and ratings.
• Exhibit 4 and Exhibit 5 detail the updated growth forecasts and CAGR estimates.
• Exhibit 6 provides the global and regional ecommerce sales forecasts.

Disclaimer

Goldman Sachs may have a conflict of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in the report. Investors should consider this report as only one factor in their investment decisions. For full disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Appendix or visit www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.