UNDP-知识的未来：前瞻性报告——利用变革能力应对未来风险（英）-2022.3-136页_44mb

Future of Knowledge: A Foresight Report Summary

Core Content

This report, Future of Knowledge: A Foresight Report, is a collaborative effort between the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Knowledge Foundation (MBRF). It aims to analyze the readiness of countries to harness the transformative power of technology and knowledge to address future global risks and foster sustainable development.

Main Purpose and Objectives

• To assess the technological readiness of economies to transform in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
• To identify how countries can leverage knowledge and technology to build resilience against future shocks.
• To support national leadership in preparing for global risks by examining the role of skills, innovation, and institutional capacity.
• To highlight the importance of upskilling the workforce and promoting digital inclusion, especially for marginalized groups.

Key Global Risks

The report identifies three primary global risks that require attention:

1. Health Risks: The pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global health systems, highlighting the need for preparedness and resilience.
2. Environmental Risks: The crisis led to temporary environmental improvements but also underscored the ongoing challenges of climate change and pollution.
3. Technological Risks: The rapid pace of technological change presents both opportunities and challenges, requiring countries to adapt and invest in digital skills and infrastructure.

Transformative Capacity

Transformative capacity is defined as the ability of countries to leverage technology and knowledge to address future risks and foster sustainable development. It encompasses:

• Awareness of future technologies
• Understanding of their potential impacts
• Adoption and integration of technological advancements
• Development of relevant skills and knowledge
• Institutional support and policy frameworks

Countries like Singapore, the United Kingdom, Malaysia, and Luxembourg demonstrate high levels of transformative capacity, characterized by strong digital infrastructure, robust research and development (RDI) institutions, and effective collaboration across sectors. However, even these high performers have not yet reached their full potential in terms of technology adoption and skills development.

Conversely, countries such as Tajikistan, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Kazakhstan show limited awareness and engagement with future technologies. These countries lack the necessary infrastructure, skills, and institutional frameworks to effectively respond to technological disruptions, thereby increasing their vulnerability to future risks.

Knowledge Dimensions and Future Skills

The report emphasizes the importance of several knowledge dimensions in building a resilient and sustainable future:

• Pre-university education
• Technical and vocational education and training (TVET)
• Higher education
• Research, development, and innovation (RDI)
• Information and communications technology (ICT)
• Economic development
• General enabling environment

Future skills include digital literacy, adaptability, critical thinking, and collaboration. These skills are essential for individuals and organizations to thrive in a rapidly evolving technological landscape.

Methodology

• The report analyzed data from 150 million sources using artificial intelligence (AI), big data, and machine learning.
• It focused on online and social media analytics to gauge awareness and engagement with future technologies.
• The Transformative Capacity Model was developed to measure countries' readiness to address future risks based on their knowledge and technological capacities.
• The methodology also included an interactive dashboard to assess preparedness and vulnerability in response to the pandemic, considering factors such as:
  • Level of development
  • Health system capacity
  • Internet connectivity

Global Analysis

The report analyzed 40 countries and grouped them based on their performance in the Global Knowledge Index (GKI) and Global Technology Awareness Index (GTAI):

• Green Grouping: Low GKI and GTAI scores – countries with limited awareness and engagement with technology.
• Black Grouping: Moderate GKI and GTAI scores – countries with some awareness but limited readiness.
• Red Grouping: Very solid GKI and GTAI scores – countries with strong awareness and engagement.
• Blue Grouping: Strongest performance – countries with high levels of both knowledge and technological readiness.

Key Results

• The Global Knowledge Index (GKI) is a comprehensive tool to measure knowledge as a key driver of sustainable development.
• The pandemic highlighted the importance of digital skills and preparedness in mitigating the effects of global shocks.
• AI-based models such as France’s Regional Employment and Training Observatory are being used to identify skills gaps and match labor supply with demand.
• South-South and triangular cooperation are critical for sharing best practices and promoting digital inclusion among marginalized groups.

Recommendations

1. Invest in digital infrastructure: Expanding access to affordable broadband internet is essential for developing countries to catch up with global technological trends.
2. Upskill the workforce: Governments should focus on training programs that align with future job market demands, particularly in digital and technical fields.
3. Promote collaboration: Encourage partnerships between government, private sector, and civil society to foster innovation and resilience.
4. Strengthen health systems: Improve healthcare capacities and ensure that health systems are prepared for future pandemics and health crises.
5. Enhance environmental awareness: Leverage the opportunity created by the pandemic to promote sustainable consumption and production patterns.
6. Develop a robust knowledge ecosystem: Support education, RDI, and ICT to build a strong foundation for future growth and development.
7. Use the GKI as a guide: The GKI provides a framework for countries to assess and improve their knowledge readiness in the face of global risks.

Conclusion

The report underscores the critical role of knowledge and technology in shaping the future of societies. It calls for a proactive and integrated approach to addressing global risks, emphasizing the need for investment in digital skills, infrastructure, and innovation. By doing so, countries can build more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable futures.