2001-06-10-皮尤-Modest_Support_for_Missile_Defense,_No_Panic_on_China_31页_95kb

Summary of Public Opinion on Bush's Foreign Policy and Missile Defense

Core Content

This document outlines the results of a nationwide poll conducted by the Pew Research Center in collaboration with the Council on Foreign Relations, focusing on public opinion regarding President George W. Bush's foreign policy and support for a national missile defense system. It highlights that while there is modest support for missile defense, the public does not perceive China as a significant threat, and there is a notable partisan and demographic divide in views on both issues.

Main Points

• Public Support for Missile Defense

  • The public shows modest support for the national missile defense system, with a 51% - 38% approval margin.
  • This support has remained consistent over time, with no significant change in public opinion after exposure to arguments for and against the system.
  • Republicans are the core supporters, while Democrats are more evenly split.
  • Conservative Republicans are the strongest backers, with 63% in favor, and liberal Democrats show the highest opposition, with 27% against.
  • Education level is a key factor, with college graduates more likely to oppose the system (51% vs. 41%).
  • Men without college degrees are the most supportive, with 61% in favor, whereas men with college degrees are more divided, with 44% in favor and 52% opposed.
  • Women are more likely to change their views on the issue, especially those over 65 and non-whites.

• Public Perception of China

  • The majority of Americans view China as a serious problem, but not as an adversary.
  • Only 19% of the public sees China as an adversary, compared to 51% who see it as a serious problem.
  • Terrorism is perceived as a greater threat than missile attacks from unfriendly nations (77% vs. 10%).
  • Americans are pessimistic about China's political and economic reforms, with 62% believing it is not becoming more democratic.
  • College graduates are more optimistic about China's potential for democratic change than those without college degrees.
  • Younger Americans (18-29) are less concerned about China as a problem than older generations.

• Partisan and Ideological Differences

  • Partisanship is a strong influence on views of missile defense and China.
  • Democrats are more likely to see China as a problem than Republicans, but they are also more likely to support missile defense.
  • Moderate to liberal Democrats are more divided on missile defense than their Republican counterparts.
  • Conservative Republicans are the most consistent in their support for missile defense, with 63% favoring it.

• Public Views on Bush's Foreign Policy

  • The public supports Bush's foreign policy approach, with 54% disagreeing with critics who claim it is too aggressive.
  • 51% believe Bush is working hard enough to maintain peaceful relations with other countries.
  • Democrats are more divided on the issue of aggression, with 40% saying he is being too aggressive and 40% disagreeing.
  • Critics of Bush are more likely to believe he is not working hard enough with other nations.

• Impact of Arguments on Public Opinion

  • Arguments for and against missile defense have limited impact on public opinion.
  • 80% of respondents maintained their initial stance after considering both sides.
  • The argument about cost is the most widely known, but it does not sway the majority.
  • The arguments in favor of missile defense are seen as more compelling than those against, even though they are less well known.
  • Supporters of missile defense strongly believe in the arguments for it, while opponents are less likely to reject them outright.

• Global Threats and Priorities

  • While China is a concern, it is not seen as the greatest threat compared to other global issues like terrorism, WMD proliferation, and infectious diseases.
  • Treaties to limit the arms race are seen as the best way to protect the U.S., with 53% supporting this approach over missile defense.

Key Information

• Missile Defense Support: 51% in favor, 38% opposed.
• China as Adversary: 19% see it as an adversary, 51% as a serious problem.
• Terrorism as Greater Threat: 77% of Americans believe terrorism is a greater threat than missile attacks.
• Partisan Gap: Republicans (especially conservatives) strongly support missile defense, while Democrats are more divided.
• Education Influence: College graduates are more likely to oppose missile defense.
• Gender Gap: Men are more supportive of missile defense than women.
• Consistency in Views: Conservative Republicans are the most consistent in their support for missile defense, with 63% favoring it.
• Public Skepticism: Americans are pessimistic about the ability of U.S. policies to influence China's internal development.
• Bush's Foreign Policy: Public opinion is generally positive, with 53% disagreeing with the claim that his policies are too aggressive.

Conclusion

Overall, the American public supports President Bush's foreign policy, particularly his stance on China and missile defense. However, there are significant partisan, ideological, and demographic differences in opinions. While there is modest support for missile defense, the public prefers treaties over military systems for protection. China is viewed as a serious problem, not a major adversary, and terrorism is seen as a more pressing threat. The public remains unmoved by arguments for and against missile defense, with 80% maintaining their initial positions.