2025-06-16-高盛-施耐德电气基础设施有限公司（SEIN）_施耐德电气基础设施有限公司（SEIN.BO）_配电领域增长机遇；评级上调至买入_14页_810kb

Schneider Electric Infrastructure Ltd. (SEIN.BO) Summary

Core Content

Schneider Electric Infrastructure Ltd. (SEIN.BO) has been upgraded from a Sell to a Buy rating by Goldman Sachs, based on an improved outlook for the Indian power distribution sector. The analysis highlights the growing power distribution opportunity in India, driven by increased demand and the need for infrastructure upgrades. The stock price is currently at Rs750.15, with a 12-month price target of Rs910, offering a 21.3% upside potential.

Main Points

• Market Outlook: India's power demand is expected to grow, leading to an increase in power deficits. This will drive the need for grid infrastructure upgrades, especially in low- and medium-voltage distribution networks, switchgear, transformers, and intelligent breakers.
• TAM Expansion: The total addressable market (TAM) for SEIN is projected to increase from US$9.02bn to US$14.53bn by FY32, with a CAGR of 15.6%.
• Order Inflow Growth: The company's order inflow is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 31% from FY25 to FY28, driven by higher market share and gross margins.
• Margin Expansion: Gross margins are expected to rise from 38.2% in FY25 to 39.6% by FY32, supported by better pricing, product mix, and cost efficiencies.
• Valuation: The updated price target of Rs910 implies a FY27E P/E of 41x, which is near the historical mean. The valuation methodology remains unchanged, based on discounted free cash flows (DCF) till FY50.
• Capacity Expansion: SEIN plans to expand its capacity at the Vadodara Switchgear plant and Kolkata Breakers plant, which should support its growth in the distribution equipment market.
• Government Schemes: SEIN may benefit from government-led initiatives like the Revamped Distribution System Scheme (RDSS), which supports smart metering and distribution upgrades. However, execution delays could affect the timing of capital subsidies.

Key Data Overview

• Market Cap: Rs179.4bn / $2.1bn
• Enterprise Value: Rs181.7bn / $2.1bn
• Revenue Growth:
  • FY26E: 31.2%
  • FY27E: 19.8%
  • FY28E: 28.9%
• EBITDA Growth:
  • FY26E: 47.1%
  • FY27E: 30.2%
  • FY28E: 33.7%
• EPS Growth:
  • FY26E: 58.9%
  • FY27E: 31.9%
  • FY28E: 35.1%
• Dividend Yield: Expected to rise from 0.0% to 1.6% by FY28E.
• Valuation Ratios:
  • P/E (FY27E): 41x
  • P/B (FY27E): 13.1x
  • EV/EBITDA (FY27E): 24.7x

Key Drivers of the Upgrade

1. Increased TAM and Market Share:
   • TAM is expected to grow from US$9.02bn to US$14.53bn by FY32.
   • Market share is projected to rise to 3.3% in FY32 from 2.9% previously.
2. Margin Expansion:
   • Gross margin is expected to increase from 38.2% to 39.6% by FY32.
   • Improved pricing, product mix, and cost efficiencies are key factors.
3. Valuation Catch-Up:
   • The stock has underperformed peers like Hitachi Energy India in the past year.
   • With power deficits increasing, there is a stronger case for distribution network capex, which could improve SEIN's valuation.
4. Government Support:
   • SEIN could benefit from RDSS and other schemes, despite delays in execution.

Key Risks

• Transmission Project Delays: If transmission project awards do not materialize as expected, it could negatively impact TAM expectations.
• Competitive Pressure: Increased competition from peers like Hitachi Energy and GET&D could affect margins.
• RDSS Delays: Further delays in the rollout of RDSS could impact the receipt of capital subsidies from the government.

Summary of Financial Forecasts

Metric	FY25	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E
Revenue (Rs mn)	26,367.1	34,602.2	41,464.1	53,439.6
EBITDA (Rs mn)	3,827.7	5,630.8	7,330.0	9,800.9
EPS (Rs)	10.60	16.84	22.21	30.01
P/E (X)	72.8	44.5	33.8	25.0
P/B (X)	32.9	19.0	13.1	10.0
Net Debt/Equity (%)	60.1	24.4	13.3	10.0

Conclusion

Goldman Sachs believes that SEIN is well-positioned to benefit from the growing power distribution infrastructure needs in India, driven by increased demand and the need to reduce distribution losses. The company's capacity expansion and improved margins support its upgraded Buy rating and higher price target. However, the analysis acknowledges potential risks, including delays in project awards and government initiatives, which could impact its growth trajectory.