2017年-WEF世界经济论坛_The_New_Economic_Context_for_the_Arab_World__8页_3mb

Summary of The New Economic Context for the Arab World

Core Content

The document outlines the evolving economic and social landscape of the Arab World in the context of global trends and emerging risks. It highlights the need for structural reforms to ensure long-term competitiveness, inclusive growth, and resilience against external shocks.

Main Global Trends and Risks

The report identifies four key global trends and associated risks that will significantly impact the Arab World:

1. Rising Income and Wealth Disparity

   • Key Risks: Social instability, failure of national governance, unemployment or underemployment.
   • Impact: This trend is the most impactful in the region. Tunisia, Oman, and Morocco are particularly vulnerable.
   • Private Sector Concerns: Businesses in Jordan (61%) and Tunisia (47%) show high concern about long-term unemployment and social instability.

2. Increasing Polarization of Societies

   • Key Risks: Social instability, failure of national governance, state collapse or crisis.
   • Impact: Polarization is closely linked to income inequality and poses a serious threat to regional stability.
   • Concrete Risk: Yemen is at high risk of state collapse, with 68% of businesses identifying it as a major concern.

3. Rise of Cyber Dependency

   • Key Risks: Cyberattacks, data fraud or theft, breakdown of critical information infrastructure.
   • Impact: Countries with advanced ICT development, such as the UAE, are more vulnerable to cyber threats.
   • Private Sector Concerns: In the UAE, 33% of companies are worried about cyberattacks, and 10% about data fraud.

4. Changing Climate

   • Key Risks: Water crises, extreme weather events, failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation.
   • Impact: Countries with fragile environmental conditions are at higher risk.
   • Private Sector Concerns: Jordan and Qatar are most concerned about water shortages.

Economic Progress in the Arab World

The Arab World is diverse, with varying levels of economic development. Key indicators include:

• Global Competitiveness: The UAE and Qatar lead the region, with the UAE ranking 5.26 and Qatar 5.23.
• Inclusive Development: Jordan and Morocco show the highest levels, while Yemen is the lowest.
• Networked Readiness: The UAE and Qatar are also top performers, but other countries lag behind.
• Enabling Trade: Morocco is the strongest performer, followed by the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.
• Doing Business: The UAE leads with a score of 76.89, while Lebanon and Yemen have the lowest scores.

Key Challenges for the Arab World

The report identifies four major challenges that the Arab World must address to ensure long-term competitiveness and development:

1. Transitioning away from natural resources and diversifying the economy
2. Increasing the role of the private sector and reducing state intervention
3. Ensuring opportunities for the youth and rising workforce
4. Mastering the Fourth Industrial Revolution and improving the innovation ecosystem

Youth Perspectives

• Most Serious Issues: Arab youth cite government accountability and corruption (49%), lack of economic opportunity (41%), and lack of education (37%) as the top challenges.
• Youth Empowerment Factors: Entrepreneurship is seen as a key factor for empowerment by 50% of youth. In the Levant, a fair justice system is also important, while in the Gulf, free media and engagement with government are prioritized.

Structural Weaknesses

• Inefficient Labour Markets: A major weakness in the region, especially in North Africa.
• Insufficient Higher Education and Training: Limits innovation and economic growth.
• Regulatory Barriers: Hinder entrepreneurship and intra-regional trade.
• Bankruptcy Laws and Labour Regulations: Discourage SME lending and reduce workforce flexibility.

Success Stories

• Entrepreneurial Growth: Several Arab start-ups have achieved international success, including Maktoob (Jordan), Talabat (Kuwait), and Souq.com (UAE).
• Investment in Tech Start-ups: The UAE has seen a significant increase in equity investment in tech start-ups, from $100 million in 2014 to $1.7 billion in 2016.

Policy Recommendations

• Reforms in Competitiveness: The Arab World needs to improve its innovation ecosystem, labor market efficiency, and technological readiness.
• Private Sector Engagement: Collaboration with the private sector is crucial to drive economic transformation.
• Youth Empowerment: Policies should focus on creating opportunities for the youth, who represent a significant portion of the population.

Conclusion

The Arab World faces significant challenges due to global trends and its own structural weaknesses. Addressing these issues through comprehensive reforms and fostering a supportive environment for entrepreneurship and innovation will be essential for long-term economic progress and stability.