20231201-财信证券-策略专题_经济金融高频数据周报_22页_1mb

economic and financial high-frequency data weekly report (nov 27- dec 1, 2023)

key points:

1. global economy and inflation: Global economic growth is improving, supported by rising BDI (Baltic Dry Index), indicating increased shipping activity. Inflation remains volatile, with fluctuations in CRB indices and core indicators like Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) rates.

2. domestic economy and inflation:

   • The PMI fell to 49.4% in November, signaling a slowdown in manufacturing activities.
   • Consumer prices are stable, with minor increases in pork prices and stable food indexes.

3. industrial production:

   • Sintering plant utilization and steel mill production are stable, suggesting steady industrial activity.
   • Cement prices indicate moderate sector activity.

4. consumption:

   • Must-have and discretionary consumption remained strong.
   • Increased metro passenger traffic in first-tier cities and rising movie box office revenues show active domestic demand.

5. investment:

   • Real estate and manufacturing investments are stabilizing.
   • Infrastructure remains weak, as seen in declining bulldozer sales.

6. exports:

   • Container shipping indices and port cargo tonnages suggest consistent export flows.

7. emerging sectors (semiconductors, solar):

   • Semiconductor and solar indices declined, reflecting lower demand for electronics components.

8. risks:

   • Data should be interpreted accounting for lag, and policymakers may influence market reactions.

Disclaimer: All reports are internally referenced and include liabilities disclaimers regarding data volatility and unexpected policy shifts.