美国战略和预算评估中心-军备控制：它的未来能在过去找到吗？（英）-2021.9-13页_1mb

Arms Control: Can Its Future Be Found in Its Past?

Core Content

The article "Arms Control: Can Its Future Be Found in Its Past?" by Eric S. Edelman examines the state of arms control in the context of evolving global security dynamics. It analyzes the extension of the New START Treaty by the Biden Administration and explores the broader implications of this decision in light of the perceived decline of arms control as a viable strategy for nuclear stability.

Main Points

1. New START Treaty Extension

• The Biden Administration unconditionally extended the New START Treaty for five years, despite earlier calls for a conditional extension that would have included negotiations on non-strategic nuclear weapons and new Russian nuclear capabilities.
• This decision has been criticized by some as a loss of U.S. leverage, as it allowed Russia to avoid concessions in future negotiations.

2. The "Golden Era" of Arms Control

• The period from 1988 to 1998 is considered the "golden era" of arms control, marked by significant treaties and agreements.
• Key treaties include the INF Treaty, two START Treaties (START I and START II), and the START III Framework.
• Multilateral agreements such as the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty and the Chemical Weapons Convention also contributed to this era.
• This period saw a reduction in strategic nuclear arsenals and a spirit of cooperation between the U.S. and Russia.

3. Factors Undermining the Golden Era

• Nuclear Proliferation: The nuclear tests by India and Pakistan in 1998 and North Korea's missile tests in 1998 marked the beginning of a new nuclear era.
• U.S.-Russia Relations: The decline of U.S.-Russia relations, particularly after 2003, led to a breakdown in trust and cooperation.
• Russian Non-Compliance: Russia's growing concerns about the INF Treaty and its eventual withdrawal in 2019, due to its own non-compliance and strategic interests.
• China's Rise: The modernization of China's nuclear forces and its expansion of missile capabilities created new security challenges for both the U.S. and Russia.

4. The Role of Technology

• Emerging technologies such as cyber, hypersonic weapons, AI, and space systems are complicating the arms control landscape.
• These technologies blur the lines between conventional and nuclear warfare, making traditional arms control mechanisms less effective.

5. Theoretical Foundations of Arms Control

• Arms control originated from concerns about arms races and the security dilemma.
• Experts like Schelling and Halperin argued that nuclear weapons created a "reciprocal fear of surprise attack," increasing the risk of miscalculation and accidental war.
• The concept of "strategic stability" was introduced, emphasizing the need for both sides to maintain a secure second-strike capability.

6. Critiques of Arms Control

• Critics like Colin Gray argue that arms control is not a panacea for peace; it reflects rather than causes conflict.
• The article notes that arms control agreements often serve as a justification for existing military programs rather than a stabilizing force.

Key Information

• The New START Treaty remains a cornerstone of current arms control efforts, but its extension has been seen as a missed opportunity for deeper cooperation.
• The INF Treaty was terminated by the U.S. in 2019 due to Russia's non-compliance and the lack of multilateral support.
• China's nuclear modernization and the lack of interest in arms control negotiations pose new challenges for the U.S. and Russia.
• The article suggests that the Cold War-era arms control model may not be sufficient for the current strategic environment.
• It proposes looking back to pre-nuclear arms control efforts, such as those between the two world wars, for alternative approaches.

Conclusion

The article argues that while the Cold War-era arms control model has provided a foundation for stability, it is no longer adequate to address the complexities of modern military competition. It calls for a broader and more inclusive approach that incorporates new technologies and involves more countries in the process. The historical experience of arms control before the nuclear age, though often overlooked, may offer valuable lessons for navigating the current security landscape.