战略与国际研究中心-TWQ_-Managing-and-Engaging-Rising-China_-India-s-Evolving-Posture_18页_358kb

Managing and Engaging Rising China: India's Evolving Posture

Core Content

India-China relations have become increasingly complex and strained in recent years, despite historical efforts to maintain peace and cooperation. The relationship, once characterized by a strategic partnership, is now marked by unresolved disputes, growing mistrust, and shifting geopolitical dynamics. The two countries have struggled to reconcile their differences, even as they continue to engage economically and diplomatically.

Main Views and Key Issues

1. Evolving Relationship Dynamics

• India and China have a long history of tensions, particularly over territorial disputes, strategic rivalry, and diplomatic mistrust.
• The India–China Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity (2005) was intended to foster cooperation, but many of its goals remain unfulfilled.
• The relationship has become more politically unpredictable due to China's assertiveness and India's growing assertiveness in safeguarding its national interests.

2. Territorial Disputes

• The Arunachal Pradesh (claimed by China as "South Tibet") and Jammu and Kashmir (claimed by China as part of Pakistan) are central to the dispute.
• China's public claims on these territories have heightened tensions in India, where public opinion strongly opposes any territorial concession.
• India has declared these regions as core interests, leading to a breakdown in confidence-building measures and a suspension of military exchanges.

3. Tibetan Issue

• The Dalai Lama and the Tibetan community in exile in India remain a sensitive issue for China.
• China has refused to engage meaningfully with the Dalai Lama on the issue of Tibetan autonomy, despite India's efforts to maintain a neutral stance.
• This lack of engagement has led to diplomatic friction and undermined India's role as a humanitarian partner.

4. River Water Disputes

• Hydroelectric projects on the Yarlung-Tsangpo River (Brahmaputra in India) raise concerns about water flow and regional stability.
• China has been untransparent about its river projects, causing public anxiety in India, especially in the northeast.
• There is no comprehensive agreement on water-sharing between the two countries, and China's past behavior on other rivers (e.g., the Mekong) does not inspire confidence.

5. Pakistan as a Strategic Ally

• China's close ties with Pakistan, including nuclear and military collaboration, are seen as a threat to India's security.
• China's lack of condemnation of the 2008 Mumbai attacks linked to Pakistan-based groups has further strained relations.
• India views China's support for Pakistan as an unacceptable geopolitical balancing act.

6. Relations with the United States and Global Powers

• China has expressed concern over the Indo-U.S. strategic partnership and nuclear cooperation.
• It opposes India's increased global engagement, including its bid for a permanent UN Security Council seat.
• China's asymmetrical power and regional dominance aspirations have made it uncomfortable with India's rising influence and international alignment.

India's Strategic Approach

1. Engagement, Balancing, and Regional Stability

• India has pursued a three-pronged strategy: engagement, balancing, and support for a stable Asia.
• It has expanded economic ties with China, including a $61.7 billion trade volume in 2010, but faces a large trade deficit.
• India has increased its military capabilities to counterbalance China, including nuclear testing, modernization of air and naval forces, and improved mountain warfare skills.

2. Shift in Diplomatic Posture

• India has moved from a policy of appeasement to one of reciprocity and assertiveness.
• The government and political class now recognize that concessions are not effective in addressing core issues.
• Public opinion has shifted against China, with 52% of Indians viewing China unfavorably in 2010.

Conclusion

• Despite some cooperation in global issues like climate change, the India-China relationship is strained by unresolved territorial, security, and diplomatic disputes.
• China's assertive stance and India's growing confidence have created a security dilemma and strategic competition.
• The lack of mutual trust and unilateral claims by both sides have made resolution difficult, and the relationship remains tenuous and politically volatile.