2016年-世界发展银行全球_Argentina___Capital_Market_Assessment_and_Development_Prospects_58页_910kb

报告摘要

Argentina Capital Market Assessment & Development Prospects Summary

Core Content

This report provides a high-level diagnostic of Argentina's capital market development, focusing on corporate, SME, and infrastructure financing, along with recommendations for improving the market's resilience and efficiency. The report highlights the need for addressing macroeconomic, fiscal, and monetary challenges, as well as structural issues on both the supply and demand sides. It also emphasizes the importance of market infrastructure and the role of financial intermediaries in fostering market growth.

Main Points

Current State of Capital Markets

Argentina's private capital markets are underdeveloped compared to regional peers.
Market Capitalization: Stood at about 11% of GDP in 2015, significantly lower than Brazil (35–39%), Chile (90%), and others.
Bond Market: Relatively small, with total bond issuance volume at 0.4% of GDP in 2015, compared to peers like Chile (7.1%) and Malaysia (8.3%).
Corporate Financing: The corporate bond and equity markets are small, at around 13% of GDP, with corporate bonds being the most frequently used instrument, amounting to USD 4.4 billion in 2015.
Equity and Debt Instruments: Most are short-term and dollar-denominated. Corporate leverage is at reasonable levels (gross debt to equity ratio of 40%), with interest payments at around 35%.
Institutional Investor Base: Small, with the FGS (Fondo de Garantía de Sustentabilidad) being the main institutional investor, managing USD 50 billion in assets.
Mutual Funds and Insurance: Represent about 3% of GDP each, indicating limited institutional participation.
Retail Investment: Very limited, and foreign investment participation is minimal.

Key Constraints and Recommendations

Macroeconomic, Fiscal, and Monetary Challenges

Inflation and Interest Rates: High inflation and interest rates have constrained market development.
LEBACs (Las Letras del Banco Central): Should be used temporarily to mop up liquidity.
Tax Framework Review: A thorough review is needed, particularly the credit-debit tax, to ensure a level playing field for market participants.
Tax Neutral Approach: Consider applying the credit-debit tax in a revenue-neutral way to avoid distorting capital markets.

Demand Side Challenges

Institutional Investor Development: Need for long-term savings schemes (e.g., 401K-style structures) and life insurance incentives.
Foreign Investor Access: Reforms are needed to ease entry, including KYC simplification, account opening procedures, and capital controls.
Repatriation of Assets: Ensure suitable vehicles for retail investors.
FGS Role: Reforms to allow the FGS to act as a more active and flexible institutional investor.

Supply Side Challenges

Public Offering Regime: Needs to be reviewed to improve access and efficiency.
Mutual Funds (MFs) Framework: Should be adjusted to create distinct categories for public and private offerings and align regulations with risk.
Private Offerings: Space should be made available for private placements.
Government Bond Issuance: A schedule of bonds with varying maturities should be developed to establish a yield curve.

Corporate Markets

Corporate Governance: A comprehensive strategy is needed to enhance transparency and accountability.
Liquidity Enhancement: Long-term plans to improve liquidity, including FGS rebalancing and ETFs.
Regulatory Review: The tender offer regime and Article 20 of the Capital Markets Law (CML) should be reassessed.

SME Financing

Legacy Legislation: Current SME financing relies on outdated systems that provide an implicit subsidy.
Market-Based Instruments: Need to develop an SME asset class that can be sold on market terms.
MAV's Role: The Mercado Argentino de Valores (MAV) should lead the strategy for SME financing, exploring instruments like factoring, private placements, and alternative markets.
Guarantee Schemes: A holistic review of SME access to finance and guarantee mechanisms is recommended.

Infrastructure Financing

PPP Law Implementation: The government needs to work on the new PPP law, regulations, and standards for PPP Units.
Currency Risk: Solutions for peso-earning infrastructure projects are limited due to inflation and interest rates.
Inflation-Linked Instruments: Could be considered in the medium term to manage currency risk.
Currency Swap Facility: Recommended to support infrastructure financing.

Key Recommendations

Action	Key Entity	Priority	Impact	Complexity
Review the tax regime, especially the credit-debit tax	MoF	Medium Term	High	High
Determine vehicles for long-term investment under repatriation provisions	MoF, CNV	Short Term	High	Medium
Conduct a holistic review of foreign investor barriers	MoF, CNV, IRS	Short Term	High	Low
Assess the implementation of a 401K retirement structure	MoF	Long Term	High	Medium
Reassess the role and investment regime of FGS	MoF	Short Term	High	Low
Keep track of actions to achieve MSCI emerging market status	MoF, CNV	Short Term	High	High
Review the public offering regime to enable private offerings	CNV	Short Term	High	Medium
Review the mutual funds framework to support retail and long-term investment	CNV	Short Term	High	Low
Develop a government bond issuance schedule to set a yield curve	MoF	Medium Term	High	Medium
Develop a comprehensive corporate governance strategy	CNV	Medium Term	Medium	Medium
Enhance liquidity through FGS rebalancing and ETFs	CNV	Medium-Long Term	Medium/High	High
Review the tender offer regime and Article 20 of the CML	MoF, CNV	Short Term	Medium	Low
Conduct a review of SME access to finance and guarantee schemes	MoF	Medium Term	High	High
Develop a strategy for SME financing using true factoring, private placements, and alternative markets	CNV	Medium to Long Term	Medium	High
Develop a comprehensive infrastructure financing strategy	MoF, CNV	Medium Term	High	Medium
Develop a credible inflation index for infrastructure and mortgage markets	MoF	Short Term	High	Medium
Develop credit and contractual risk guarantee mechanisms	MoF, CNV	Medium Term	High	High
Develop institutions to fund and offer guarantee instruments	MoF, CNV	Medium Term	Medium	High
Set out clear rules on public/private project risk sharing	MoF	Short Term	Medium	Medium
Develop a currency swap facility	CB	Medium	High	Medium
Enhance CNV independence and accountability	CNV	Short Term	Medium	Medium
Improve CNV authorization function	CNV	Short Term	High	Medium
Strengthen CNV supervision through RBS and market-wide risk identification	CNV	Medium Term	Medium	High
Develop and implement a credible enforcement strategy	CNV	Medium Term	High	Medium
Ensure preconditions for CNV operations (staff recruitment, automation, organizational review)	CNV	Short Term	Medium	High
Conduct consultation on competition in post-trading services	CNV	Medium Term	Medium	Medium
Develop an integrated graduated licensing regime for securities intermediaries	CNV	Medium Term	Medium	Medium

Key Entities and Roles

MoF (Ministerio de Hacienda y Finanzas Publicas): Leads tax review, retirement schemes, and government bond issuance.
CNV (Comisión Nacional de Valores): Oversees corporate governance, authorization, supervision, and enforcement.
CB (Central Bank): Involved in currency swap facilities and macroeconomic policy.
FGS (Fondo de Garantía de Sustentabilidad): Should be reformed to act as a more active institutional investor.
MAV (Mercado Argentino de Valores): Key in developing an SME asset class.
MAE (Mercado Abierto Electrónico): Needs to expand into other markets and products to test contestability.
BIMA (Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos): Could develop a credible futures market.

Conclusion

To unlock the potential of Argentina's capital markets, a combination of short-term and long-term actions is required. These include improving macroeconomic conditions, enhancing investor base, streamlining regulations, and strengthening market infrastructure and supervision. The development of a robust corporate governance framework, effective liquidity measures, and strategic reforms in SME and infrastructure financing are also critical. Coordination among financial authorities and consultation with the market are essential to ensure the successful implementation of these measures.

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