20211231-IEA-Oil_Market_Report_-_January_2022_80页_3mb

报告摘要

Oil Market Report Summary - 19 January 2022

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the global oil market dynamics in early 2022, focusing on demand, supply, refining, and stock levels, as well as the impact of the Omicron variant on the sector.

Main Points

Global Demand

Global oil demand in 4Q21 rose by 1.1 mb/d to 99 mb/d, exceeding expectations.
The increase is attributed to softer Covid restrictions and a revised upward estimate of 200 kb/d for both 2021 and 2022.
For 2021, demand is expected to grow by 5.5 mb/d, and for 2022 by 3.3 mb/d, returning to pre-Covid levels of 99.7 mb/d.
In 1Q22, demand is projected to decline seasonally by 1.1 mb/d, due to increased teleworking and reduced air travel.

Omicron Impact

The Omicron variant caused a surge in cases but had a muted effect on oil demand due to higher immunity rates and less severe restrictions compared to earlier waves.
Mobility indicators suggest a recovery in the US and Europe, which may lead to a faster rebound in oil demand by the second half of 2022.

Supply Outlook

World oil supply in 2022 is expected to grow by 4.4 mb/d, with OPEC+ playing a central role.
A Saudi-driven gain of 6.2 mb/d is possible if OPEC+ fully unwinds its production cuts.
Non-OPEC+ supply growth is expected to be 1.8 mb/d, led by the United States.
Effective spare capacity in OPEC+ is forecast to shrink to below 3 mb/d in H222, primarily due to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Refining Industry

The global refining industry ended 2021 with improved runs and margins, averaging 79.8 mb/d in 4Q21.
Refinery throughputs are expected to increase by 3.7 mb/d in 2022, with net additions of 1.2 mb/d.
Global refining capacity fell for the first time in 30 years by 730 kb/d, but is expected to recover slightly in 2022.

Stocks

OECD total industry stocks declined by 6.1 mb/d in November, reaching 2756 mb, the lowest level in seven years.
Preliminary data for December shows further declines in industry stocks while oil on the water volumes increased.
Observed oil stocks have reached a lowest level since 2018, indicating a tighter balance in the market.

Prices

Crude prices faced demand uncertainty in December but rebounded strongly in January, with Brent reaching $87.30/bbl, its highest level since 2014.
North Sea Dated rose from $74.01/bbl to $87.30/bbl.
Brent backwardation doubled, reflecting tight oil stocks and strong demand.

Key Information

Global demand growth in 2021 and 2022 is expected to be 5.5 mb/d and 3.3 mb/d, respectively.
OPEC+ supply is forecast to increase by 4.4 mb/d in 2022, with Saudi Arabia and Russia likely to lead the increase.
Effective spare capacity in OPEC+ is expected to drop from 5 mb/d to below 3 mb/d in H222.
OECD oil demand for 2021 is projected to grow by 2.5 mb/d to 44.5 mb/d, and for 2022 by 1.6 mb/d to 46.2 mb/d.
Non-OECD demand is expected to grow by 6.0 mb/d in 2021 and 3.3 mb/d in 2022.
US oil output is forecast to rise by 1 mb/d to 17.7 mb/d.
Refinery runs are expected to increase by 3.7 mb/d in 2022, with refining capacity expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d.
Global observed oil stocks have dropped to a lowest level since 2018, with OECD stocks at 2756 mb, down 354 mb from the previous year.
Crude prices are expected to be 12% higher in 2022 than in the previous report.
Omicron's impact is expected to be less severe than earlier variants, with mobility and economic activity recovering faster.

Tables and Data Highlights

Global Demand by Product (kb/d)

Product	2019	2020	2021	2022	Annual Chg 2021	Annual Chg 2022	Annual Chg % 2021	Annual Chg % 2022
LPG & Ethane	12,648	12,697	13,321	13,644	624	322	4.9	2.4
Naphtha	6,306	6,322	6,858	7,052	536	194	8.5	2.8
Motor Gasoline	26,636	23,528	25,513	26,327	1,985	814	8.4	3.2
Jet Fuel & Kerosene	7,926	4,633	5,163	6,133	530	971	11.4	18.8
Gas/Diesel Oil	28,229	26,405	27,569	28,153	1,164	584	4.4	2.1
Residual Fuel Oil	6,145	5,697	6,048	6,311	351	263	6.2	4.3
Other Products	11,660	11,617	11,909	12,085	291	177	2.5	1.5
Total Products	99,549	90,901	96,381	99,705	5,480	3,325	6.0	3.4

Global Demand by Region (kb/d)

Region	2019	2020	2021	2022	Annual Chg 2021	Annual Chg 2022	Annual Chg % 2021	Annual Chg % 2022
Africa	4,250	3,815	4,007	4,104	192	97	5.0	2.4
Americas	31,767	28,053	30,118	31,048	2,066	930	7.4	3.1
Asia/Pacific	35,472	33,627	35,696	37,163	2,069	1,467	6.2	4.1
Europe	15,093	13,176	13,794	14,363	618	569	4.7	29.2
FSU	4,723	4,501	4,783	4,926	282	143	6.3	3.0
Middle East	8,244	7,728	7,982	8,100	254	118	3.3	1.5
World	99,549	90,901	96,381	99,705	5,480	3,325	6.0	3.4
OECD	47,720	42,018	44,548	46,174	2,530	1,626	6.0	3.7
Non-OECD	51,829	48,883	51,832	53,531	2,950	1,698	6.0	3.3

Conclusion

The global oil market is experiencing a tightening balance in 2022 due to increased demand and modest supply growth. Despite the Omicron variant's impact, the recovery in demand is expected to be faster than previous waves, supported by rising mobility and economic activity. The refining industry is also showing signs of recovery, with improved runs and margins. Stock levels are at historical lows, increasing the volatility risk for the year. Crude prices have rebounded to seven-year highs, indicating a tight market. The United States is expected to be a major driver of supply and demand growth in 2022.